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The fed information shocks and the market for corporate control: Predictive and causal effects

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  • Adra, Samer
  • Barbopoulos, Leonidas G.
  • Saunders, Anthony

Abstract

We show that contractionary monetary shocks, when reflecting a positive macroeconomic assessment by the Federal Reserve (hereafter “Fed”), predict an economic environment that is characterized by (a) a rise in M&A activity, (b) a higher likelihood of M&A completion, (c) larger bidder gains, (d) limited concerns about M&A overpayment, and (e) higher premia offered by foreign bidders to U.S. targets. Further, Fed information shocks have a standalone and direct causal effect on market expectations of M&A gains. That is, positive Fed information shocks trigger a positive revaluation of pending M&A. This revaluation effect, which holds after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and changes in economic forecasts, is more pronounced in deals that are relatively large, financed with stock, and have received a negative initial market reaction. Overall, our results highlight the independent and credible signaling role of the Fed in the realm of M&A.

Suggested Citation

  • Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2025. "The fed information shocks and the market for corporate control: Predictive and causal effects," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:90:y:2025:i:c:s0929119924001433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2024.102681
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Mergers and acquisitions; Fed Information shocks; Takeover premium; Cumulative abnormal returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance

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