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Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from China


  • Chandra, Piyush


With a decrease in tariffs around the world, temporary trade barriers (TTBs) have increased dramatically to take their place. These TTBs are usually in the form of antidumping duties, countervailing duties and global safeguards. Recently, an increasing number of these TTBs have been targeted towards China. In this paper, I explore the impact of the US temporary trade barriers (TTBs) on Chinese exports. Using detailed product level data for the period 2002–2008, I find robust evidence of trade deflection i.e. the US trade barriers against China led to an increase in the growth of Chinese exports to other countries. However, I do not find any evidence of trade depression. The results are robust to a wide variety of specification and robustness tests. While I do not find any difference in the impact of TTBs across developed and developing countries, there is considerable heterogeneity in response to TTBs depending on the type of products involved. Specifically, I find that, while the US TTBs on non-steel products lead to an increase in Chinese exports of those products to third markets, there is a significant chilling effect in case of steel. Finally, most of the trade-deflection seems to be along the intensive margins i.e. an increase in exports to the existing third country markets rather than exports to new markets. If anything, the US TTBs on China seem to decrease Chinese exports to newer and more volatile markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chandra, Piyush, 2016. "Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 24-48.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:38:y:2016:i:c:p:24-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2015.11.002

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lenka Fojtíková, 2017. "State Regulation in China in the Light of Its WTO Membership," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 29-43, October.
    2. Seda Ekmen Ozcelik, 2018. "The Potential Effects of TPP, TTIP and Trump's Tariffs on China's Competitiveness in the US Market," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 95-115, December.
    3. Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Antidumping Duties: Evidence from the 2004 EU Enlargement," ifo Working Paper Series 261, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Septiyas Trisilia, Mustika & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "Impacts of China Coal Import Tariff against US on Global Economy and CO2 Emissions," MPRA Paper 91231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    6. Xiuping Hua & Ying Jiang & Qian Sun & Xinyi Xing, 2019. "Do antidumping measures affect Chinese export-related firms?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 871-900, April.
    7. Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Impacts of Donald Trump’s Tariff Increase against China on Global Economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model," MPRA Paper 79493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Zhang, Hongyong, 2018. "Political connections and antidumping investigations: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 34-41.
    9. Saiful Alim Rosyadi & Tri Widodo, 2018. "Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 125-145, April.
    10. Yanxin Liu & Huajiao Li & Jianhe Guan & Xueyong Liu & Yajie Qi, 2019. "The role of the world’s major steel markets in price spillover networks: an analysis based on complex network motifs," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 697-720, December.
    11. Timini, Jacopo & Conesa, Marina, 2019. "Chinese Exports and Non-Tariff Measures: Testing for Heterogeneous Effects at the Product Level," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(2), pages 327-345.
    12. Junqian Xu & Yong Liu & Liling Yang, 2018. "A Comparative Study of the Role of China and India in Sustainable Textile Competition in the U.S. Market under Green Trade Barriers," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Gabriel Felbermayr & Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2018. "The Trade Effects of Anti-Dumping Duties: Firm-Level Evidence from China," CESifo Working Paper Series 7208, CESifo Group Munich.
    14. Jacob Wood & Jie Wu & Yilin Li & Jungsuk Kim, 2017. "TBT and SPS impacts on Korean exports to China: empirical analysis using the PPML method," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 96-114, November.
    15. Inamullah Jan & Tariq Mehmood & Shabir Hussain, 2018. "American, Indian and Chinese Media on "Belt and Road Initiative"," Global Social Sciences Review, Humanity Only, vol. 3(4), pages 31-48, December.

    More about this item


    China; Temporary trade barriers; Trade deflection; Trade depression;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration


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