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China's export growth and the China safeguard: threats to the world trading system?

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  • Chad P. Bown
  • Meredith A. Crowley

Abstract

Is there evidence from China's pre-WTO accession period that newly imposed U.S. or EU import restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third markets? We examine this question by drawing on a newly constructed data set of U.S. and EU product-level import restrictions on Chinese trade imposed between 1992 and 2001, and we estimate their impact on Chinese exports to alternative markets. We find no systematic evidence that the import restrictions imposed during this period resulted in Chinese exports surging to third markets. To the contrary, there is weak evidence of a chilling effect on China's exports to third markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Chad P. Bown & Meredith A. Crowley, 2010. "China's export growth and the China safeguard: threats to the world trading system?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1353-1388, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:43:y:2010:i:4:p:1353-1388
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2010.01617.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    2. Charnovitz, Steve, 2012. "US Special Safeguard on Imports of Tires from China: Imposing Pain for Little Gain," CEPR Discussion Papers 9217, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of antidumping duties: Evidence from the 2004 EU enlargement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Xiuping Hua & Ying Jiang & Qian Sun & Xinyi Xing, 2019. "Do antidumping measures affect Chinese export-related firms?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 871-900, April.
    5. Chisik, Richard, 2012. "Trade disputes, quality choice, and economic integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 47-61.
    6. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    8. Xuqian Hu & Canfei He, 2020. "Nontariff measures, trade deflection, and market expansion of exporters in China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 932-953, September.
    9. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    10. Xuepeng Liu & Huimin Shi, 2019. "Anti‐dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting: Evidence from Chinese exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1427-1466, May.
    11. Cheng, Lu & Mi, Zhifu & Coffman, D'Maris & Meng, Jing & Chang, Dongfeng, 2021. "Destruction and Deflection: Evidence from American Antidumping Actions against China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 203-213.
    12. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Sandkamp, Alexander, 2020. "The trade effects of anti-dumping duties: Firm-level evidence from China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Chandra, Piyush, 2016. "Impact of temporary trade barriers: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 24-48.
    14. Bown, Chad P., 2012. "Emerging economies and the emergence of south-south protectionism," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6162, The World Bank.
    15. Chad P. Bown, 2007. "Canada's Anti†dumping and Safeguard Policies: Overt and Subtle Forms of Discrimination," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9), pages 1457-1476, September.
    16. Chad P. Bown & Baybars Karacaovali & Patricia Tovar, 2014. "What Do We Know About Preferential Trade Agreements and Temporary Trade Barriers?," Working Papers 201418, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    17. Carsten Eckel & Lisandra Flach & Ning Meng, 2026. "Demand and Supply Linkages in Exporting Multiproduct Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 12530, CESifo.
    18. Bown, Chad & Crowley, Meredith A., 2016. "The Empirical Landscape of Trade Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 11216, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    19. Veysel Avsar, 2017. "The Anatomy of Trade Deflection," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Li, Wanli & Li, Yue & Jacoby, Gady & Wu, Zhenyu, 2022. "Antidumping, firm performance, and subsequent responses," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    21. Ryuhei Wakasugi & Hongyong Zhang, 2016. "Impacts of the WTO accession on Chinese exports," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 347-364, October.
    22. Qu, Hongyan & Ding, Zhujun & Ahlstrom, David & Wu, Changqi & Cai, Huifen Helen, 2025. "When I have to versus when I am able to: Behavioral and resource explanations for firms’ international expansion via exporting," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(1).
    23. Gurun, Ayfer, 2013. "Business strategy and financial consequences: The case of antidumping filings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 127-138.
    24. Kagitani, Koichi & Harimaya, Kozo, 2015. "Safeguards and voluntary export restraints under the World Trade Organization," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 29-41.
    25. Guobing Shen & Peijie Wang & Yuanhan Xu, 2021. "Trade destruction and deflection effects of US‐China trade frictions on China’s tariff‐targeted products," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 2076-2106, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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