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China's export growth and U.S. trade policy

  • Chad P. Bown
  • Meredith A. Crowley

This paper examines how US special import restrictions affect the growth of China's exports to countries other than the US. We estimate an empirical model of trade deflection and trade depression of roughly 5100 commodities exported by China to 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US trade restrictions deflect Chinese exports to third, non-US markets. Imposition of a US antidumping duty against China leads the growth rate of targeted commodities to increase approximately 25 percentage points. Our results on the deflection of Chinese exports vary across commodity, with the strongest evidence of trade deflection appearing in the steel, pharmaceuticals and manufactured goods industries.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-04-28.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-04-28
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  1. Thomas J. Prusa, 1996. "The Trade Effects of U.S. Antidumping Actions," NBER Working Papers 5440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bagwell,K. & Staiger,R.W., 1998. "An economic theory of GATT," Working papers 15, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  3. Hylke Vandenbussche & Jozef Konings & Linda Springael, 1999. "Import Diversion under European Antidumping Policy," NBER Working Papers 7340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February.
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  10. Debaere, Peter, 2005. "Small Fish - Big Issues The Effect of Trade Policy on the Global Shrimp Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5254, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  14. Patrick A. Messerlin, 2004. "China in the World Trade Organization: Antidumping and Safeguards," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(1), pages 105-130.
  15. Gordon H. Hanson & Robert C. Feenstra, 2001. "Intermediaries in Entrepot Trade: Hong Kong Re-Exports of Chinese Goods," NBER Working Papers 8088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Chad P. Bown & Meredith A. Crowley, 2003. "Trade deflection and trade depression," Working Paper Series WP-03-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  17. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  18. Bown, Chad P., 2005. "Global antidumping database version 1.0," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3737, The World Bank.
  19. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  20. Robert Staiger & Frank Wolak, 1994. "Measuring Industry Specific Protection: Antidumping in the United States," International Trade 9410004, EconWPA.
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