Uncertainty and investment in precision agriculture - Is it worth the money?
Irreversibility and uncertainty render the standard capital budgeting techniques such as net present value (NPV) analysis insufficient as a decision criterion. The standard NPV underestimates the value of the investment by not including the value of waiting for new information to reduce the uncertainty of the cashflows generated by the investment. An alternative to NPV analysis is real options. In this study, we apply real options analysis to an investment decision for a grain producer in Western Australia. The investment choice is to either purchase machinery suitable for undertaking controlled traffic precision agriculture or acquire a conventional system and reduce sowing time. The results of the analysis suggest that the required rates of return for the two investment alternatives need to be approximately 96-156% higher than the rates of return used in the standard NPV analysis. These higher rates of return are required to compensate for the uncertainty inherent in the cropping systems of the farm. Also, in most cases, even though the variable costs of operating the precision agriculture system were higher, due to smaller operating widths, the additional returns generated by managing zones individually outweighed these additional costs. Further analysis also shows that the relative size of management zones has a marked effect on the returns generated and that it is possible to increase returns by taking out marginally productive zones.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987.
"Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test,"
NBER Working Papers
2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
- Tozer, Peter R., 2005.
"Depreciation Rates for Australian Tractors and Headers - Is Machinery Depreciation a Fixed or Variable Cost?,"
2005 Conference (49th), February 9-11, 2005, Coff's Harbour, Australia
137951, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Tozer, Peter R., 2006. "Depreciation Rates for Australian Tractors and Headers - Is Machinery Depreciation a Fixed or Variable Cost?," Australasian Agribusiness Perspectives 234172, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000.
"Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy,"
Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists,
International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 24(1), December.
- Khanna, Madhu & Isik, Murat & Winter-Nelson, Alex, 2000. "Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 9-21, December.
- Pampolino, M.F. & Manguiat, I.J. & Ramanathan, S. & Gines, H.C. & Tan, P.S. & Chi, T.T.N. & Rajendran, R. & Buresh, R.J., 2007. "Environmental impact and economic benefits of site-specific nutrient management (SSNM) in irrigated rice systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-3), pages 1-24, March.
- Lowenberg-DeBoer, J., 1999. "Risk Management Potential of Precision Farming Technologies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 275-285, August.
- Pringle, M. J. & McBratney, A. B. & Whelan, B. M. & Taylor, J. A., 2003. "A preliminary approach to assessing the opportunity for site-specific crop management in a field, using yield monitor data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 273-292, April.
- Link, Johanna & Graeff, Simone & Batchelor, William David & Claupein, Wilhelm, 2006. "Evaluating the economic and environmental impact of environmental compensation payment policy under uniform and variable-rate nitrogen management," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 91(1-2), pages 135-153, November.
- Sadler, E. J. & Gerwig, B. K. & Evans, D. E. & Busscher, W. J. & Bauer, P. J., 2000. "Site-specific modeling of corn yield in the SE coastal plain," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 189-207, June.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998.
"Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns,"
Staff General Research Papers Archive
1121, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998. "Moving From Uniform To Variable Fertilizer Rates On Iowa Corn: Effects On Rates And Returns," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(02), December.
- Bruce A. Babcock & Gregory R. Pautsch, 1997. "Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 97-wp182, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
- Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
- Babcock, Bruce A. & Pautsch, Gregory R., 1998. "Moving from Uniform to Variable Fertilizer Rates on Iowa Corn: Effects on Rates and Returns," ISU General Staff Papers 199801010800001530, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Murat Isik, 2006. "Implications of alternative stochastic processes for investment in agricultural technologies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 21-27.
- Lowenberg-DeBoer, James, 1999. "Risk Management Potential Of Precision Farming Technologies," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(02), August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:100:y:2009:i:1-3:p:80-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.