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Export controls and innovation performance: Unravelling the complex relationship between blacklisted Chinese firms and U.S. suppliers

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  • Sajid Anwar
  • Beibei Hu
  • Qiao Luan
  • Kai Wang

Abstract

Export controls are crucial for protecting domestic economic interests globally. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding their impact on innovation performance. This study contributes to the literature by examining the effects of the U.S. entity list on the innovation performance of blacklisted Chinese firms and related industries, as well as the reverse shock on U.S. suppliers. Using propensity score matching and a difference‐in‐differences approach, we found that export controls stimulate technological innovation in blacklisted firms and generate industry‐wide spillover effects in the sanctioned country. Particularly, firms heavily reliant on imports from the United States and those solely dependent on China's domestic market experience significant effects. However, export controls have a negative impact on the innovation performance of U.S. suppliers. We examine the mechanisms driving these effects, including government grants, R&D investment and firm performance. Our work offers valuable insights into the complex relationship between export controls and innovation performance, highlighting the differentiated impacts on blacklisted firms, related industries and U.S. suppliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Sajid Anwar & Beibei Hu & Qiao Luan & Kai Wang, 2024. "Export controls and innovation performance: Unravelling the complex relationship between blacklisted Chinese firms and U.S. suppliers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(7), pages 2995-3033, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:47:y:2024:i:7:p:2995-3033
    DOI: 10.1111/twec.13570
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    Cited by:

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    2. He, Yuhan & Lyu, Jinqiu, 2025. "Export controls and innovation transfer within Chinese business groups: Evidence from the U.S. entity list," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(9).
    3. Han, Linna & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Wang, Yong & Hoang, Yen Hai, 2024. "Examining the impact of mineral export controls on sustainable energy transition in the global south," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Liu, Qing & Jia, Deting & Liu, Huiling & Wang, Kai, 2025. "Good for bad: The heterogeneous effects of export controls on firms' ESG," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Keiko ITO, 2025. "The Collateral Damage of US Export Control Regulations on Japanese Suppliers’ Exports to China," Discussion papers 25061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. HAYAKAWA,Kazunobu & Yang,Chih-hai, 2025. "Technology Sanction and Firm R&D: Evidence From the US-China Trade Dispute," IDE Discussion Papers 950, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    7. Lin, Xiaowei & Zhang, Pengdong & Yang, Zhihao & Chen, Sicen, 2025. "US sanctions and corporate innovation: Evidence from Chinese listed firms," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

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