IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/labour/v36y2022i4p471-504.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra M. Leitner

Abstract

This paper pursues a multiple scenario analysis until 2030 to identify past and potential future labour supply and demand dynamics of four different skill groups in the six Western Balkan (WB6) countries. Simulation results of the baseline scenario show that skill shortages and surpluses would coexist: In all WB6 countries, the low educated would experience labour shortages within or shortly after the projection period while in some WB6 countries there is evidence of growing excess labour among Med‐VETs, Med‐GENs and the highly educated. Additional scenarios point to important country‐specific policy options that can help to mitigate these projected labour market imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra M. Leitner, 2022. "A skill‐specific dynamic labour supply and labour demand framework: A scenario analysis for the Western Balkan countries to 2030," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(4), pages 471-504, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:36:y:2022:i:4:p:471-504
    DOI: 10.1111/labr.12231
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/labr.12231
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/labr.12231?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 61-72.
    2. Sandra M. Leitner & Robert Stehrer, 2019. "Demographic Challenges for Labour Supply and Growth," wiiw Research Reports 439, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    3. Julia Jauer & Thomas Liebig & John P. Martin & Patrick A. Puhani, 2019. "Migration as an adjustment mechanism in the crisis? A comparison of Europe and the United States 2006–2016," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Simone Bertoli & Herbert BrÜcker & Jesús FernÁndez-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Post-Print halshs-01355040, HAL.
    5. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    6. Gregg, Paul & Tominey, Emma, 2005. "The wage scar from male youth unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 487-509, August.
    7. Knights, Stephen & Harris, Mark N & Loundes, Joanne, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-298, September.
    8. Seim, David, 2019. "On the incidence and effects of job displacement: Evidence from Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 131-145.
    9. Sabourin, David, 2001. "Skill Shortages and Advanced Technology Adoption," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2001175e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    10. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    11. Lewis, John & Swannell, Matt, 2018. "The macroeconomic determinants of migration," Bank of England working papers 729, Bank of England.
    12. Sandra M. Leitner, 2021. "Net Migration and its Skill Composition in the Western Balkan Countries between 2010 and 2019: Results from a Cohort Approach Analysis," wiiw Working Papers 197, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    13. Brancatelli,Calogero & Marguerie,Alicia Charlene & Koettl-Brodmann,Stefanie, 2020. "Job Creation and Demand for Skills in Kosovo : What Can We Learn from Job Portal Data?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9266, The World Bank.
    14. Stephen Knights & Mark N. Harris & Joanne Loundes, 2002. "Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 284-298, September.
    15. Nilsen, Øivind A. & Reiso, Katrine Holm, 2011. "Scarring effects of unemployment," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 26/2011, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    16. Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2005. "Product Market Competition, Skill Shortages and Productivity: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Firms," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 317-339, July.
    17. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Lasse Sigbjørn Stambøl, 2013. "Effects of Regional Labour Markets on Migration Flows, by Education Level," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(1), pages 80-92, March.
    18. Haskel, Jonathan & Martin, Christopher, 1993. "Do Skill Shortages Reduce Productivity? Theory and Evidence from the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 386-394, March.
    19. Dieter Verhaest & Eddy Omey, 2013. "The Relationship Between Formal Education And Skill Acquisition In Young Workers' First Jobs," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 638-659, July.
    20. Timo Mitze, 2012. "Empirical Modelling in Regional Science," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-22901-5, October.
    21. Kostas Mavromaras & Seamus Mcguinness & Yin King Fok, 2009. "Assessing the Incidence and Wage Effects of Overskilling in the Australian Labour Market," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(268), pages 60-72, March.
    22. Marcus Eliason & Donald Storrie, 2006. "Lasting or Latent Scars? Swedish Evidence on the Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 24(4), pages 831-856, October.
    23. Jessica Bennett & Seamus McGuinness, 2009. "Assessing the impact of skill shortages on the productivity performance of high-tech firms in Northern Ireland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 727-737.
    24. Olga Kupets, 2015. "Skill mismatch and overeducation in transition economies," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 224-224, December.
    25. Timo Mitze, 2012. "A Panel VAR Approach for Internal Migration Modelling and Regional Labor Market Dynamics in Germany," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Empirical Modelling in Regional Science, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 19-52, Springer.
    26. Jennifer Hunt, 2006. "Staunching Emigration from East Germany: Age and the Determinants of Migration," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1014-1037, September.
    27. Pissarides, Christopher A & McMaster, Ian, 1990. "Regional Migration, Wages and Unemployment: Empirical Evidence and Implications for Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 812-831, October.
    28. Arulampalam, Wiji, 2001. "Is Unemployment Really Scarring? Effects of Unemployment Experiences on Wages," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 585-606, November.
    29. Finegold, David & Soskice, David, 1988. "The Failure of Training in Britain: Analysis and Prescription," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 21-53, Autumn.
    30. Gregg, Paul, 2001. "The Impact of Youth Unemployment on Adult Unemployment in the NCDS," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(475), pages 626-653, November.
    31. Fares, Jean & Tiongson, Erwin R., 2007. "Youth unemployment, labor market transitions, and scarring : evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2001-04," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4183, The World Bank.
    32. Arulampalam, Wiji & Booth, Alison L & Taylor, Mark P, 2000. "Unemployment Persistence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 24-50, January.
    33. Sandra M. Leitner, 2021. "Net Migration and its Skill Composition in the Western Balkan Countries between 2010 and 2019: Results from a Cohort Approach," wiiw Policy Notes 47, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    34. Nickell, S. & Nicolitsas, D., 1997. "Human Capital, Investment and Innovation: What Are the Connections?," Papers 20, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
    35. David Morris & Enrico Vanino & Carlo Corradini, 2020. "Effect of regional skill gaps and skill shortages on firm productivity," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 52(5), pages 933-952, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mattia Filomena, 2021. "Unemployment Scarring Effects: A Symposium On Empirical Literature," Working Papers 453, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    2. Mattia Filomena & Isabella Giorgetti & Matteo Picchio, 2022. "Off To A Bad Start: Youth Nonemployment And Labor Market Outcomes Later In Life," Working Papers 466, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    3. Inés Hardoy & Pål Schøne, 2013. "No Youth Left behind? The Long-Term Impact of Displacement on Young Workers," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 342-364, August.
    4. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2023. "Scars of Youth Non-employment and Labour Market Conditions," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(2), pages 475-499, July.
    5. Verho, Jouko, 2017. "Economic crises and unemployment persistence: Analysis of job losses during the Finnish 1990s recession," Working Papers 99, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
    7. Möller Joachim & Umkehrer Matthias, 2015. "Are there Long-Term Earnings Scars from Youth Unemployment in Germany?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(4-5), pages 474-498, August.
    8. Gianni De Fraja & Sara Lemos & James Rockey, 2021. "The Wounds That Do Not Heal: The Lifetime Scar of Youth Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(352), pages 896-941, October.
    9. Nordström Skans, Oskar, 2004. "Scarring effects of the first labour market experience: A sibling based analysis," Working Paper Series 2004:14, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    10. Amélie Speiser, 2021. "Back to work: the effect of a long-term career interruption on subsequent wages in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Luis Beccaria & Roxana Maurizio & Martin Trombetta & Gustavo Vázquez, 2016. "Una evaluación del efecto scarring en Argentina," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 77, August.
    12. Schmillen, Achim & Umkehrer, Matthias, 2013. "The scars of youth : effects of early-career unemployment on future unemployment experience," IAB-Discussion Paper 201306, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    13. Giulia Martina Tanzi, 2020. "Scars of youth non-employment and labour market conditions," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1312, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Anneleen Vandeplas & Anna Thum-Thysen, 2019. "Skills Mismatch and Productivity in the EU," European Economy - Discussion Papers 100, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    15. Bíró, Anikó & Elek, Péter, 2020. "Job loss, disability insurance and health expenditure," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    17. Gregg, Paul & Tominey, Emma, 2005. "The wage scar from male youth unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 487-509, August.
    18. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2002. "The search for success: do the unemployed find stable employment?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 717-735, December.
    19. Carina Keldenich & Christine Luecke, 2022. "Unlucky at work, unlucky in love: job loss and marital stability," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 243-278, March.
    20. Verho, Jouko, 2008. "Scars of recession: the long-term costs of the Finnish economic crisis," Working Paper Series 2008:9, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:36:y:2022:i:4:p:471-504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/csrotit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.