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Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector

  • Stokes, Jeffrey R.

Data on the number of Pennsylvania dairy farms by size category are analyzed in a Markov chain setting to determine factors affecting entry, exit, expansion, and contraction within the sector. Milk prices, milk price volatility, land prices, policy, and cow productivity all impact structural change in Pennsylvania's dairy sector. Stochastic simulation analysis suggests that the number of dairy farms in Pennsylvania will likely fall by only 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, indicating that dairy farming in Pennsylvania is likely to be a significant enterprise for the state in the foreseeable future.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/10218
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Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 35 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (October)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:10218
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.narea.org/

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  1. Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21251, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  2. Ethridge, Don E. & Roy, Sujit K. & Myers, David W., 1985. "A Markov Chain Analysis Of Structural Changes In The Texas High Plains Cotton Ginning Industry," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 17(02), December.
  3. Chan, M W Luke, 1981. "A Markovian Approach to the Study of the Canadian Cattle Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(1), pages 107-16, February.
  4. Jeffrey M. Gillespie & Joan R. Fulton, 2001. "A Markov chain analysis of the size of hog production firms in the United States," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 557-570.
  5. Golan, Amos & Judge, George G. & Miller, Douglas, 1996. "Maximum Entropy Econometrics," Staff General Research Papers 1488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Christopher A. Wolf & Daniel A. Sumner, 2001. "Are Farm Size Distributions Bimodal? Evidence from Kernel Density Estimates of Dairy Farm Size Distributions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(1), pages 77-88.
  7. Rahelizatovo, Noro C. & Gillespie, Jeffrey M., 1999. "Dairy Farm Size, Entry, And Exit In A Declining Production Region," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(02), August.
  8. Disney, W. Terry & Duffy, Patricia A. & Hardy, William E., Jr., 1988. "A Markov Chain Analysis Of Pork Farm Size Distributions In The South," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(02), December.
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