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Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector

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  • Stokes, Jeffrey R.

Abstract

Data on the number of Pennsylvania dairy farms by size category are analyzed in a Markov chain setting to determine factors affecting entry, exit, expansion, and contraction within the sector. Milk prices, milk price volatility, land prices, policy, and cow productivity all impact structural change in Pennsylvania's dairy sector. Stochastic simulation analysis suggests that the number of dairy farms in Pennsylvania will likely fall by only 2.0 percent to 2.5 percent annually over the next 20 years, indicating that dairy farming in Pennsylvania is likely to be a significant enterprise for the state in the foreseeable future.

Suggested Citation

  • Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 357-373, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:agrerw:v:35:y:2006:i:02:p:357-373_00
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    1. Mikkel Bojesen & Hans Skov-Petersen & Morten Gylling, 2013. "Forecasting the potential of Danish biogas production: spatial representation of Markov chains," IFRO Working Paper 2013/16, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    2. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2009. "Impact of the EU Milk Quota on Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 50943, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas, "undated". "Differences of farm structural change across European regions," Discussion Papers 162879, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    4. Silke Huettel & Anne Margarian, 2009. "Structural change in the West German agricultural sector," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(s1), pages 759-772, November.
    5. Xuan Chen & Dylan Bouchard & Gary Anderson, 2018. "Is the Dairy Relief Program Really Working? Evaluating Maine’s Tier Payment Program Using a Simulation Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    6. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(3), pages 1-28, August.
    7. Huettel, Silke & Jongeneel, Roelof A., 2008. "Structural Change in the Dairy Sectors of Germany and The Netherlands - A Markov Chain Analysis," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 43659, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Piet, Laurent, "undated". "Assessing structural change in agriculture with a parametric Markov chain model. Illustrative applications to EU-15 and the USA," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114668, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Legrand D. F. Saint‐Cyr, 2022. "Heterogeneous farm‐size dynamics and impacts of subsidies from agricultural policy: Evidence from France," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 893-923, September.
    10. Hartarska, Valentina & Adjei, Eugene & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2024. "The transition incentive program and women farmers in the USA," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    12. Mosnier, Claire & Wieck, Christine, "undated". "Determinants of spatial dynamics of dairy production: a review," Discussion Papers 162896, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., "undated". "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers 258013, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    14. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Farm segmentation and agricultural policy impacts on structural change: evidence from France," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    15. Madior Fall & Laurent Piet & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Trends in the French commercial farm population," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 279-295.
    16. Zier, Patrick, 2013. "Econometric impact assessment of the Common Agricultural Policy in East German agriculture," Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Transition Economies, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), volume 71, number 71.
    17. Niskanen, Olli & Iho, Antti & Kalliovirta, Leena, 2020. "Scenario for structural development of livestock production in the Baltic littoral countries," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    18. Ashok K. Mishra & J. Mathew Fannin & Hyunjeong Joo, 2014. "Off-Farm Work, Intensity of Government Payments, and Farm Exits: Evidence from a National Survey in the United States," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(2), pages 283-306, June.
    19. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    20. Provost, Jennifer & Rosero, Gabriel & Brümmer, Bernhard & Schlecht, Eva, 2022. "To sell, not to sell, or to quit: Exploring milk producers’ approaches after a supply chain disruption in Northwest Cameroon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    21. Duraisamy, Thirunavukkarasu & Natchimuthu, Narmatha, . "Factors Driving Discontinuance of Smallholder Dairy Farming -- Evidence From Tamil Nadu, India," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 25(2).
    22. Heath Henderson, 2014. "Structural transformation and smallholder agriculture: an information-theoretic analysis of the Nicaraguan case," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(4), pages 443-458, July.
    23. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    24. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    25. Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska & Bretford Griffin, 2019. "The Impacts of Economic, Demographic, and Weather Factors on the Exit of Beginning Farmers in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.

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