IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzb/nzbdps/2011-02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper looks at the boom period between 2000 and 2008 in the international prices of four internationally-traded commodities: oil, dairy products, beef and lamb. All are important drivers of macroeconomic dynamics in New Zealand. Our aim is to provide overviews of the demand and supply factors specific to each market and product, thus adding colour to more general analyses of the macroeconomic and financial drivers of the cycles in world commodity markets over the period. For each commodity market we examine here, we set out the structures of the markets and the major drivers of world demand and supply, and discuss the apparent relative strength of each of the drivers.

Suggested Citation

  • Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2011/02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Discussion%20papers/2011/dp11-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. L. Wray, 2008. "Money Manager Capitalism and the Commodities Market Bubble," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(6), pages 52-80.
    2. Giancarlo Moschini & Karl D. Meilke, 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(2), pages 253-261.
    3. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
    4. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Scott Rozelle, 2004. "Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-wp380, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    5. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 05-wp394, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
    9. Gale, H. Frederick, Jr. & Huang, Kuo S., 2007. "Demand For Food Quantity And Quality In China," Economic Research Report 7252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    10. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Cashin, Paul & McDermott, C. John & Scott, Alasdair, 2002. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 277-296, October.
    12. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.
    13. Emmanuel Farhi & Ricardo Caballero & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, "undated". "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," Working Paper 20933, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 898, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. World Bank, 2009. "Global Economic Prospects 2009 : Commodities at the Crossroads," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2581, December.
    16. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_578, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Scott L. Baier & Mark Clements & Charles W. Griffiths & Jane E. Ihrig, 2009. "Biofuels impact on crop and food prices: using an interactive spreadsheet," International Finance Discussion Papers 967, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis," Working Paper Series 1072, European Central Bank.
    19. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    20. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 377-391, August.
    21. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
    22. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
    23. Richard Alm & Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani, 2008. "Crude awakening: behind the surge in oil prices," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(may).
    24. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," FAPRI Staff Reports 32054, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Scott Bowman & Patrick Conway, 2013. "China’s recent growth and its impact on the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/15, New Zealand Treasury.
    2. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in dairy markets," Papers 2104.12707, arXiv.org.
    3. Amber Wadsworth & Adam Richardson, 2017. "A factor model of commodity price co-movements: An application to New Zealand export prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2017/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 704-728, July.
    5. Willy Chetwin, 2012. "Business cycle review, 1998-2011," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 75, pages 14-27, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baffes, John & Haniotis, Tassos, 2010. "Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5371, The World Bank.
    2. Rossen, Anja, 2015. "What are metal prices like? Co-movement, price cycles and long-run trends," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 255-276.
    3. Vasyl Golosnoy & Anja Rossen, 2018. "Modeling dynamics of metal price series via state space approach with two common factors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1477-1501, June.
    4. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2012. "Returns in Commodities Futures Markets and Financial Speculation: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Energy: Resources and Markets 122868, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. David Matesanz & Benno Torgler & Germán Dabat & Guillermo J. Ortega, 2014. "Co-movements in commodity prices: a note based on network analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 13-21, November.
    6. Marco Lombardi & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2012. "Global commodity cycles and linkages: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 651-670, October.
    7. Derek Headey & Sangeetha Malaiyandi & Shenggen Fan, 2010. "Navigating the perfect storm: reflections on the food, energy, and financial crises," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 217-228, November.
    8. Serge Calabre, 2003. "La dynamique des prix et des marchés de matières premières : analyses univariées versus faits stylisés analytiques," Mondes en développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 122(2), pages 21-35.
    9. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    10. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    11. Lafang Wang & Wenjing Duan & Dan Qu & Shaojun Wang, 2018. "What matters for global food price volatility?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1549-1572, June.
    12. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    13. Brian D. Wright, 2012. "International Grain Reserves And Other Instruments to Address Volatility in Grain Markets," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 222-260, August.
    14. Bai, Junfei & Wahl, Thomas I. & McCluskey, Jill J., 2008. "Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao, China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), pages 1-15.
    15. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 0907, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    16. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    17. Colin A. Carter & Gordon C. Rausser & Aaron Smith, 2011. "Commodity Booms and Busts," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-118, October.
    18. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    19. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    20. Areal, Francisco José & Balcombe, Kevin & Rapsomanikis, George, 2016. "Testing for bubbles in agriculture commodity markets," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 16(01), June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2011/02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reserve Bank of New Zealand Knowledge Centre (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbngvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.