Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices
AbstractThe paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessellsï¾’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12379.
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Food Policy, June 2006, vol. 31 no. 3, pp. 260-271
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGR-2005-07-03 (Agricultural Economics)
- NEP-ALL-2005-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-BEC-2005-07-03 (Business Economics)
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