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Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices

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Dong, Fengxia

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Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12379.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12379

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Isabelle Schluep Campo & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 05-wp401, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp394, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giannis Karagiannis & Kostas Velentzas, 2004. "Decomposition analysis of consumers' demand changes: an application to Greek consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 497-504, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 05-wp394, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B. & Yusdja, Y., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 51-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Hall, David C. & Ehui, Simeon K. & Shapiro, Barry I., 2004. "Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 335-342, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. John C. Beghin, 2005. "Dairy Markets in Asia: An Overview of Recent Findings and Implications," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-bp47, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving Dairy Markets in Asia: Recent Findings and Implications," Staff General Research Papers 12506, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. repec:isu:genres:12424 is not listed on IDEAS
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