Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Dong, Fengxia

Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessellsï¾’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/paper_12379.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12379.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 28 Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Food Policy, June 2006, vol. 31 no. 3, pp. 260-271
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12379

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Email:
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Isabelle Schluep Campo & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp401, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N., 2004. "Projections of Dairy Product Consumption and Trade Opportunities in China," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 12.
  3. Giannis Karagiannis & Kostas Velentzas, 2004. "Decomposition analysis of consumers' demand changes: an application to Greek consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 497-504.
  4. Zhang, Xumin & Kilmer, Richard L. & Muhammad, Andrew, 2003. "A Descriptive Analysis of Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea Who Import United States Dairy Products," Monographs, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center, number 15709.
  5. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp394, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  6. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B. & Yusdja, Y., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 51-56, January.
  7. Allan N. Rae, 1997. "Changing food consumption patterns in East Asia: Implications of the trend towards livestock products," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 33-44.
  8. Hall, David C. & Ehui, Simeon K. & Shapiro, Barry I., 2004. "Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 335-342, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2006. "Japanese Consumer Demand for Dairy Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25285, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Boniface, Bonaventure & Gyau, Amos & Stringer, Randy, 2009. "Relationship quality as the predictor of long term relationship in the Malaysian dairy industry," MPRA Paper 24420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2006. "An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 249-259, June.
  5. Jin, Yanhong H. & Lin, Liguo & Yao, Lan, 2011. "Do Consumers Trust the National Inspection Exemption Brands? Evidence from Infant Formula in China," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103766, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  6. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
  7. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12379

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stephanie Bridges) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Stephanie Bridges to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.