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Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The

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  • Fengxia Dong

Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells's technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 05-wp399.

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Date of creation: Jun 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:05-wp399

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  1. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B. & Yusdja, Y., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 51-56, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2006. "Japanese Consumer Demand for Dairy Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25285, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving Dairy Markets in Asia: Recent Findings and Implications," Staff General Research Papers 12506, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
  4. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2006. "An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 249-259, June.

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