Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The
AbstractThe paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells's technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University in its series Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications with number 05-wp399.
Date of creation: Jun 2005
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Fengxia Dong, 2005. "Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 05-wp399, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
- NEP-ALL-2006-04-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-CNA-2006-05-09 (China)
- NEP-CWA-2006-04-22 (Central & Western Asia)
- NEP-SEA-2006-04-24 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Staff General Research Papers
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