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Got milk? The rapid rise of China's dairy sector and its future prospects

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Author Info
Fuller, Frank H.
Huang, Jikun
Ma, Hengyun
Rozelle, Scott

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Abstract

With the rapid growth in China’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of China’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sector’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12363.

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Length: 15 pages
Date of creation: 27 May 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Food Policy, June 2006, Vol. 31, pp. 201-215.
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12363

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Related research
Keywords: Dairy; TFP; Consumption; Supply; Technical change;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change
Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kumbhakar, Subal C & Heshmati, Almas & Hjalmarsson, Lennart, 1999. " Parametric Approaches to Productivity Measurement: A Comparison among Alternative Models," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 101(3), pages 405-24, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Gould, Brian W. & Dong, Diansheng, 2004. "Product Quality And The Demand For Food: The Case Of Urban China," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20010, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  3. Dinghuan Hu & Thomas Reardon & Scott Rozelle & Peter Timmer & Honglin Wang, 2004. "The Emergence of Supermarkets with Chinese Characteristics: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Agricultural Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 22, pages 557-586, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carter, Colin A. & Chen, Jing & Chu, Baojin, 2003. "Agricultural productivity growth in China: farm level versus aggregate measurement," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-71. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-32.
  6. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Qingbin, 2003. "Changes In China'S Urban Food Consumption And Implications For Trade," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21986, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  7. Subal Kumbhakar & M. Denny & M. Fuss, 2000. "Estimation and decomposition of productivity change when production is not efficient: a paneldata approach," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 312-320. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Liu, Kang E. & Chern, Wen S., 2003. "Food Demand In Urban China: An Application Of A Multi-Stage Censored Demand System," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21919, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
  10. Hu, Dinghuan & Fuller, Frank H. & Reardon, Thomas, 2005. "Impact of the Rapid Development of Supermarkets on the Dairy Industry in China, The," Staff General Research Papers 12261, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Fuller, Frank H. & Beghin, John C. & Rozelle, Scott, 2004. "Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data," Staff General Research Papers 12221, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jikun Huang & Yunhua Wu & Zhijian Yang & Scott Rozelle & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Fengxia Dong, 2008. "Farmer Participation, the Dairy Industry, and the Rise of Dairy Production in China," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp476, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Huang, Jikun & Wu, Yunhua & Yang, Zhijian & Rozelle, Scott & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Dong, Fengxia, 2008. "Farmer Participation, the Dairy Industry, and the Rise of Dairy Production in China," Staff General Research Papers 12981, Iowa State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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