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Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices

  • Dong, Fengxia

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessellsï¾’s technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/paper_12379.pdf
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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12379.

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Date of creation: 28 Jun 2005
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Publication status: Published in Food Policy, June 2006, vol. 31 no. 3, pp. 260-271
Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12379
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
Phone: +1 515.294.6741
Fax: +1 515.294.0221
Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N., 2003. "Projections Of Dairy Product Consumption And Trade Opportunities In China," China Agriculture Project Working Papers 23690, Massey University, Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies.
  2. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Dinghuan Hu & Scott Rozelle, 2004. "China's Dairy Market: Consumer Demand Survey and Supply Characteristics," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-sr99, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  3. Murphy, Thomas & Tisdell, Clem, 1996. "An Overview of Trends and Developments in the Thai Dairy Industry," Animal Health Economics 164567, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  4. Isabelle Schluep Campo & John C. Beghin, 2005. "Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp401, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  5. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(1), January.
  6. JooHo Song & Daniel A. Sumner, 1999. "Dairy Demand, Supply and Policy in Korea: Potential for International Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 47(5), pages 133-142, December.
  7. Sharma, Vijay Paul & Gulati, Ashok, 2003. "Trade liberalization, market reforms and competitiveness of Indian dairy sector," MTID discussion papers 61, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Zhang, Xumin & Kilmer, Richard L. & Muhammad, Andrew, 2003. "A Descriptive Analysis of Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea Who Import United States Dairy Products," Monographs, University of Florida, International Agricultural Trade and Policy Center, number 15709, December.
  9. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B. & Yusdja, Y., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 51-56, January.
  10. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp394, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  11. Hall, David C. & Ehui, Simeon K. & Shapiro, Barry I., 2004. "Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 335-342, December.
  12. Giannis Karagiannis & Kostas Velentzas, 2004. "Decomposition analysis of consumers' demand changes: an application to Greek consumption data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 497-504.
  13. repec:ags:aare05:139308 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Allan N. Rae, 1997. "Changing food consumption patterns in East Asia: Implications of the trend towards livestock products," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 33-44.
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