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Projections of Dairy Product Consumption and Trade Opportunities in China


  • Ma, Hengyun
  • Rae, Allan N.


China has been rapidly increasing its consumption and imports of dairy products in recent years. A two-stage demand system was estimated for livestock product consumption in urban China over the 1990s. Total expenditure elasticities for the livestock commodity group and expenditure elasticities for dairy products within the livestock commodity group were calculated. The results suggest that dairy products, even in urban areas, remain luxury goods because of a high expenditure elasticity (1.14). Due to rapidly increasing consumption and the likelihood of inadequate supply growth, China will continue to increase its imports of dairy products to meet its domestic demand. Projections imply that China’s imports of dairy products may range between 13-30 percent of its total domestic consumption by 2006. Due to differences in regional income and population growth rates, increases in dairy products consumption may occur especially in the Coastal, South and North areas, where potential trade opportunities may exist.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Hengyun & Rae, Allan N., 2004. "Projections of Dairy Product Consumption and Trade Opportunities in China," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Melbourne School of Land and Environment, vol. 12.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:auagre:132084

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Junfei Bai & Thomas I. Wahl & Jill J. McCluskey, 2008. "Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao, China ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), pages 133-147, June.
    2. Dong, Fengxia, 2005. "Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12379, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.


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