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Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The

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  • Fengxia Dong

Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells's technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengxia Dong, 2005. "Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp399, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:05-wp399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 20(1), January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2006. "Japanese Consumer Demand for Dairy Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25285, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.
    3. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2006. "An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 249-259, June.
    4. Birthal, Pratap S., 2008. "Linking Smallholder Livestock Producers to Markets: Issues and Approaches," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(1).
    5. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.

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