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Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The

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  • Fengxia Dong

Abstract

The paper first presents a 10-year outlook for major Asian dairy markets (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) based on a world dairy model. Then, using Heien and Wessells's technique, dairy product consumption growth is decomposed into contributions generated by income growth, population growth, price change, and urbanization and these contributions are quantified. Using the world dairy model, the paper also analyzes the impacts of alternative assumptions of higher income levels and technology development in Asia on Asian dairy consumptions and world dairy prices. The outlook projects that Asian dairy consumption will continue to grow strongly in the next decade. The consumption decomposition suggests that the growth would be mostly driven by income and population growth and, as a result, would raise world dairy prices. The simulation results show that technology improvement in Asian countries would dampen world dairy prices and meanwhile boost domestic dairy consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Fengxia Dong, 2005. "Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 05-wp399, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:05-wp399
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2005. "Dairy Food Consumption, Production, and Policy in Japan," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12406, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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    5. Frank H. Fuller & Jikun Huang & Hengyun Ma & Scott Rozelle, 2005. "Rapid Rise of China's Dairy Sector: Factors Behind the Growth in Demand and Supply, The," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 05-wp394, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
    7. Riethmuller, P. & Chai, J. & Smith, D. & Hutabarat, B. & Sayaka, B. & Yusdja, Y., 1999. "The mixing ratio in the Indonesian dairy industry," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 51-56, January.
    8. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Dinghuan Hu & Scott Rozelle, 2004. "China's Dairy Market: Consumer Demand Survey and Supply Characteristics," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-sr99, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    9. Hall, David C. & Ehui, Simeon K. & Shapiro, Barry I., 2004. "Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(2-3), pages 335-342, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Campo, Isabelle Schluep & Beghin, John C., 2006. "Japanese Consumer Demand for Dairy Products," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25285, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Cheng, Leilei & Yin, Changbin & Chien, Hsiaoping, 2015. "Demand for milk quantity and safety in urban China: evidence from Beijing and Harbin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), April.
    3. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 38196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Jane Dixon, 2009. "From the imperial to the empty calorie: how nutrition relations underpin food regime transitions," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 26(4), pages 321-333, December.
    5. Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Boniface, Bonaventure & Gyau, Amos & Stringer, Randy, 2009. "Relationship quality as the predictor of long term relationship in the Malaysian dairy industry," MPRA Paper 24420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Beghin, John & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2017. "A food demand framework for International Food Security Assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 827-842.
    8. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
    9. Hussain, Safdar & Ahmed, Wasim & Rabnawaz, Ambar & Jafar, Rana Muhammad Sohail & Saqib, Zulkaif Ahmed & Ullah, Sana & JianZhou, Yang, 2016. "Client Intentions and Buying Behavior with Regard of Dairy Products-Review," MPRA Paper 70383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Peng, Tingjun & Cox, Thomas L., 2006. "An economic analysis of the impacts of trade liberalization on Asian dairy market," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 249-259, June.
    11. Junfei Bai & Thomas I. Wahl & Jill J. McCluskey, 2008. "Fluid milk consumption in urban Qingdao, China ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(2), pages 133-147, June.
    12. Fuller, Frank & Huang, Jikun & Ma, Hengyun & Rozelle, Scott, 2006. "Got milk? The rapid rise of China's dairy sector and its future prospects," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 201-215, June.
    13. Junfei Bai & Jill J. McCluskey & Hainan Wang & Shi Min, 2014. "Dietary Globalization in Chinese Breakfasts," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 62(3), pages 325-341, September.
    14. Birthal, Pratap S., 2008. "Linking Smallholder Livestock Producers to Markets: Issues and Approaches," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 63(1), pages 1-19.
    15. Jin, Yanhong H. & Lin, Liguo & Yao, Lan, 2011. "Do Consumers Trust the National Inspection Exemption Brands? Evidence from Infant Formula in China," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103766, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Qingbin Wang & Robert Parsons & Guangxuan Zhang, 2010. "China's dairy markets: trends, disparities, and implications for trade," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 356-371, September.
    17. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.
    18. Panos Fousekis & Vasilis Grigoriadis, 2016. "Price co-movement in the principal skim milk powder producing regions: a wavelet analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 477-492.
    19. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2016. "Spatial price dependence by time scale: Empirical evidence from the international butter markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 195-204.
    20. Boniface, Bonaventure & Umberger, Wendy J., 2012. "Factors influencing Malaysian consumers’ consumption of dairy products," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124243, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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