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Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors

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This paper looks at the boom period between 2000 and 2008 in the international prices of four internationally-traded commodities: oil, dairy products, beef and lamb. All are important drivers of macroeconomic dynamics in New Zealand. Our aim is to provide overviews of the demand and supply factors specific to each market and product, thus adding colour to more general analyses of the macroeconomic and financial drivers of the cycles in world commodity markets over the period. For each commodity market we examine here, we set out the structures of the markets and the major drivers of world demand and supply, and discuss the apparent relative strength of each of the drivers.

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File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research_and_publications/discussion_papers/2011/dp11_02.pdf
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Paper provided by Reserve Bank of New Zealand in its series Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series with number DP2011/02.

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Length: 94 p.
Date of creation: May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2011/02
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  1. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Scott Rozelle, 2004. "Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 04-wp380, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  2. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "Financial Crash, Commodity Prices and Global Imbalances," NBER Working Papers 14521, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Trostle, Ronald, 2008. "Factors Contributing to Recent Increases in Food Commodity Prices (PowerPoint)," Seminars 43902, USDA Economists Group.
  5. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Ingo G. Bordon & Torben W. Hendricks, 2009. "Global Liquidity and Commodity Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Approach for OECD Countries," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 898, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Beghin, John C., 2006. "Evolving dairy markets in Asia: Recent findings and implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 195-200, June.
  8. Stephen P. A. Brown & Raghav Virmani & Richard Alm, 2008. "Crude awakening: behind the surge in oil prices," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 3(may).
  9. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis," Working Paper Series 1072, European Central Bank.
  10. Dong, Fengxia, 2005. "Outlook for Asian Dairy Markets: The Role of Demographics, Income, and Prices," Staff General Research Papers 12379, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  11. Kim, Kunhong & Buckle, R A & Hall, V B, 1994. "Key Features of New Zealand Business Cycles," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 56-73, March.
  12. Moschini, GianCarlo & Meilke, Karl D., 1989. "Modeling the Pattern of Structural Change in U.S. Meat Demand," Staff General Research Papers 11266, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  13. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  14. Babcock, Bruce A. & Beghin, John C. & Mohanty, Samarendu & Fuller, Frank H. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Kaus, Phillip J. & Fang, Cheng & Hart, Chad E. & Kovarik, Karen & Womack, Abner W. & Young, Robert E, 2000. "FAPRI 2000 U.S. Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports 32054, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  15. Gale, H. Frederick, Jr. & Huang, Kuo S., 2007. "Demand For Food Quantity And Quality In China," Economic Research Report 7252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  16. Mitchell, Donald, 2008. "A note on rising food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4682, The World Bank.
  17. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/169, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(02), August.
  19. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_578, Levy Economics Institute.
  20. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade; The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/205, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Scott Baier & Mark Clements & Charles Griffiths & Jane Ihrig, 2009. "Biofuels impact on crop and food prices: using an interactive spreadsheet," International Finance Discussion Papers 967, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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