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A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment

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  • John C. Beghin
  • Birgit Meade
  • Stacey Rosen

Abstract

We present a parsimonious demand modeling approach developed for the annual USDA-ERS International Food Security Assessment. The assessment focuses on chronic food insecurity. The approach incorporates price effects, food quality variation across income deciles, and consistent aggregation over income deciles and food qualities. The approach is based on a simple demand approach for four food categories. It relies on the existing sparse data available for the Assessment, complemented by own-price and income elasticities and available price data. Beyond consistent aggregation, the framework exhibits desirable characteristics: food quality is increasing with income; price and income responses become less sensitive with increasing income; and increasing income inequality decreases average per capita food consumption. The proposed approach is illustrated for Tanzania. We then use the calibrated model to decompose the impact of income, prices, and exchange rates on food consumption. Next, we assess future food insecurity in Tanzania using the calibrated model and two alternative characterizations of the income distribution (decile based and continuous). Food-insecure population is estimated as well as the implied distributional gap in calorie per day per food insecure person and in total annual food volume in grain equivalent. The latter gauges the depth of the chronic food insecurity.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Beghin & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen, 2015. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 14-wp550, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  • Handle: RePEc:ias:cpaper:14-wp550
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    1. Beghin, John C. & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2014. "A Consistent Food Demand Framework for International Food Security Assessment," Staff General Research Papers Archive 38196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Cardell, Lila & Valdes, Constanza & Ajewole, Keyode & Zeng, Wendy & Beckman, Jayson & Ivanic, Maros & Hashad, Reem & Jelliffe, Jeremy & Kee, Jennifer, 2022. "International Food Security Assessment, 2022–32," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 2022(Food Secu), September.
    3. Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Baquedano, Felix & Morgan, Stephen, 2022. "Evaluating the Prediction Performance of the International Food Security Assessment's Production Models: A Cross-Validation Approach," USDA Miscellaneous 333530, United States Department of Agriculture.
    4. Sognigbe N’Danikou & Raymond Sognon Vodouhe & Mauricio R. Bellon & Amadou Sidibé & Harouna Coulibaly, 2017. "Foraging Is Determinant to Improve Smallholders’ Food Security in Rural Areas in Mali, West Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-18, November.
    5. Karen Thome & Birgit Meade & Stacey Rosen & John C. Beghin, 2016. "Assessing Food Security in Ethiopia with USDA ERS's New Food Security Modeling Approach," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp567, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    6. Beghin, John & Meade, Birgit & Rosen, Stacey, 2017. "A food demand framework for International Food Security Assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 827-842.
    7. Broussard, Nzinga H. & Tandon, Sharad, 2016. "Food Insecurity Measures: Experience-Based Versus Nutrition-Based Evidence From India, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia," Economic Research Report 262189, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    8. MacLachlan, Matthew & Chelius, Carolyn & Short, Gianna, 2022. "Time-Series Methods for Forecasting and Modeling Uncertainty in the Food Price Outlook," USDA Miscellaneous 327370, United States Department of Agriculture.
    9. Robinson, Amanda Lea, 2016. "Internal Borders: Ethnic-Based Market Segmentation in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 371-384.
    10. Felix Baquedano & Jeremy Jelliffe & Jayson Beckman & Maros Ivanic & Yacob Zereyesus & Michael Johnson, 2022. "Food security implications for low‐ and middle‐income countries under agricultural input reduction: The case of the European Union's farm to fork and biodiversity strategies," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(4), pages 1942-1954, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international food security; PIGLOG demand; aggregation; income inequality; food prices; shocks; food gap; Tanzania JEL codes: F17; Q17; D31;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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