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Got milk? The rapid rise of China's dairy sector and its future prospects

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  • Fuller, Frank
  • Huang, Jikun
  • Ma, Hengyun
  • Rozelle, Scott

Abstract

With the rapid growth in Chinaï¾’s dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of Chinaï¾’s dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sectorï¾’s development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Food Policy.

Volume (Year): 31 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 201-215

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:31:y:2006:i:3:p:201-215

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol

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References

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  1. Frank H. Fuller & John C. Beghin & Scott Rozelle, 2004. "Urban Demand for Dairy Products in China: Evidence from New Survey Data," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 04-wp380, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
  2. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
  3. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
  4. Rae, Allan N. & Ma, Hengyun & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 2005. "Livestock in China: Commodity specific total factor productivity decomposition using new panel data," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19527, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  5. Hu, Dinghuan & Fuller, Frank H. & Reardon, Thomas, 2004. "Impact of the Rapid Development of Supermarkets on the Dairy Industry in China, The," Staff General Research Papers 12261, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Carter, Colin A. & Chen, Jing & Chu, Baojin, 2003. "Agricultural productivity growth in China: farm level versus aggregate measurement," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-71.
  7. repec:ags:auagre:126561 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Dinghuan Hu & Thomas Reardon & Scott Rozelle & Peter Timmer & Honglin Wang, 2004. "The Emergence of Supermarkets with Chinese Characteristics: Challenges and Opportunities for China's Agricultural Development," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 22, pages 557-586, 09.
  9. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 1996. "Technological change: Rediscovering the engine of productivity growth in China's rural economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 337-369, May.
  10. Dong, Diansheng & Gould, Brian W., 2007. "Product Quality and the Demand for Food: The Case of Urban China," China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects Symposium, July 2007, Beijing, China 55030, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  11. Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott, 1995. "Market development and food demand in rural China," FCND discussion papers 4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  12. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Qingbin, 2003. "Changes In China'S Urban Food Consumption And Implications For Trade," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21986, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  13. Guo, Xuguang, et al, 2000. "Structural Change in the Impact of Income on Food Consumption in China, 1989-1993," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(4), pages 737-60, July.
  14. Jin, Songqing & Huang, Jikun & Hu, Ruifa & Rozelle, Scott, 2001. "The Creation And Spread Of Technology And Total Factor Productivity In China'S Agriculture," Working Papers 11981, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  15. Veeck, Ann & Veeck, Gregory, 2000. "Consumer Segmentation and Changing Food Purchase Patterns in Nanjing, PRC," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 457-471, March.
  16. Kumbhakar, Subal C & Heshmati, Almas & Hjalmarsson, Lennart, 1999. " Parametric Approaches to Productivity Measurement: A Comparison among Alternative Models," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 405-24, September.
  17. Dong, Fengxia, 2006. "The outlook for Asian dairy markets: The role of demographics, income, and prices," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 260-271, June.
  18. Fuller, Frank H. & Hu, Dinghuan, 2005. "Dairy Products in Southwestern China: Anecdotal Evidence from Kunming," Staff General Research Papers 12395, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  19. Liu, Kang Ernest & Chern, Wen S., 2003. "Food Demand In Urban China: An Application Of A Multi-Stage Censored Demand System," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21919, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  20. Battese, G E & Coelli, T J, 1995. "A Model for Technical Inefficiency Effects in a Stochastic Frontier Production Function for Panel Data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 325-32.
  21. Huang, Jikun & Bouis, Howarth, 2001. "Structural changes in the demand for food in Asia: empirical evidence from Taiwan," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 57-69, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jikun Huang & Yunhua Wu & Zhijian Yang & Scott Rozelle & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Fengxia Dong, 2008. "Farmer Participation, the Dairy Industry, and the Rise of Dairy Production in China," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 08-wp476, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
  2. Francesconi, Gian Nicola & Heerink, Nico & D'Haese, Marijke, 2010. "Evolution and challenges of dairy supply chains: Evidence from supermarkets, industries and consumers in Ethiopia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 60-68, February.

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