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La dynamique des prix et des marchés de matières premières : analyses univariées versus faits stylisés analytiques

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  • Serge Calabre
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    Abstract

    In several very recent IMF Staff Papers, researchers of the Fund team working on the development of commodity world prices provide statistical characteristics of a range of prices qualifying them as stylized facts, and associate them with a purely statistical definition of the life cycle of the price of a primary commodity. This article contrasts in a synthetic way this method of univariate and temporal analysis with the previous extensive literature which concentrates on the analysis of price and market dynamics of primary commodities. It demonstrates the interest generated rather by analytical stylized facts and offers five dealing with a series of pluri-annual price fluctuations, and two concerning the medium-term regulation of international markets.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Mondes en développement.

    Volume (Year): 122 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 21-35

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    Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_122_0021

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    Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-mondes-en-developpement.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: commodities prices; international markets; commodities cycle; stylised facts;

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    1. Hong Liang & C. John McDermott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 99/80, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Wickham, Peter, 1994. "Commodity Prices: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?," MPRA Paper 8173, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
    4. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    5. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1991. "Have postwar economic fluctuations been stabilized?," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 116, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "Booms and slumps in world commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/8, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    7. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2001. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 01/68, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September.
    9. Peter Wickham & Carmen Reinhart, 1994. "Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 94/7, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    11. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott & Paul Cashin, 1999. "The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 99/169, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1990. "On The Behavior of Commodity Prices," NBER Working Papers 3439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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