New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets
AbstractThis paper reviews the current state of economic and econometric research dealing with the modeling of commodity markets and their role in economic development. The application of statistical methods to commodity markets and prices has been limited because of the erratic behavior of prices and quantities over time. Nonetheless, a very rich field of modeling and forecasting has grown over time. This research began with the analysis of agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context and later was extended to mineral and energy industries. These models not only analyzed market history, but also evaluated commodity policies and forecast commodity prices. This paper first provides a perspective on the current status of this research and then offers prescriptions for the future.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Mondes en développement.
Volume (Year): 122 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-mondes-en-developpement.htm
Commodity models; econometric models; commodity price forecasting; commodities and economic development;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alexandre Mathis & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1991.
"Prix des matières premières : un test sur l'hypothèse d'efficience des marchés,"
Revue de l'OFCE,
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 123-138.
- Alexandre Mathis & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1991. "Prix des matières premières : un test sur l'hypothèse d'efficience des marchés," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 123-138.
- Robert S. Pindyck & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1988.
"The Excess Co-Movement of Commodity Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
2671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
- Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
- Chen, Dean T. & Bessler, David A., 1990. "Forecasting monthly cotton price: Structural and time series approaches," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 103-113.
- Frank, Murray & Stengos, Thanasis, 1989. "Measuring the Strangeness of Gold and Silver Rates of Return," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 553-67, October.
- C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott & Paul Cashin, 1999.
"The Myth of Comoving Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
99/169, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Davutyan, Nurhan & Roberts, Mark C., 1994. "Cyclicality in metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 49-57, March.
- Agnon, Yehuda & Golan, Amos & Shearer, Matthew, 1999. "Nonparametric, nonlinear, short-term forecasting: theory and evidence for nonlinearities in the commodity markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 293-299, December.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen Reinhart, 1994.
"The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices,"
IMF Working Papers
94/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Borensztein, Eduardo, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," MPRA Paper 6979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
- Williams,Jeffrey C. & Wright,Brian D., 2005.
"Storage and Commodity Markets,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023399, October.
- Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
- Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "The Optimal Exploration and Production of Nonrenewable Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(5), pages 841-61, October.
- Aris Protopapadakis & Hans R. Stoll, .
"Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
17-82, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
- Catherine Kyrtsou & Walter C. Labys & Michel Terraza, 2004. "Noisy chaotic dynamics in commodity markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 489-502, 09.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Cuddington, John T & Urzua, Carlos M, 1989. "Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 426-42, June.
- Palaskas, Theodosios B. & Varangis, Panos N., 1991. "Is there excess co-movement of primary commodity prices? A co-integration test," Policy Research Working Paper Series 758, The World Bank.
- Suwala, Wojciech & Labys, Walter C., 2002. "Market transition and regional adjustments in the Polish coal industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 285-303, May.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1985. "Recent Work on Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Review of Theories and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 1503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Labys, W. C. & Achouch, A. & Terraza, M., 1999. "Metal prices and the business cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 229-238, December.
- Fafchamps, Marcel & Gavian, Sarah, 1996. "The Spatial Integration of Livestock Markets in Niger," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 5(3), pages 366-405, October.
- Holt, Matthew & Aradhyula, Satheesh V., 1990. "Price Risk in Supply Equations: An Application of Garch Time-Series Models to the U.S. Broiler Market," Staff General Research Papers 276, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. " Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-93, December.
- Trieu, Luan Ho & Savage, Eric & Dwyer, Gavan, 1994. "A model of the world uranium market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 317-329, April.
- Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank.
- Bertrand M. Roehner, 1996. "The Role of Transportation Costs in the Economics of Commodity Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 339-353.
- Bentzen, Jan & Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Short- and long-run elasticities in energy demand : A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 9-16, January.
- Mackey, Michael C., 1989. "Commodity price fluctuations: Price dependent delays and nonlinearities as explanatory factors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 497-509, August.
- Huang, Wen & Huang, Zhuo & Matei, Marius & Wang, Tianyi, 2012. "Price Volatility Forecast for Agricultural Commodity Futures： The Role of High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 83-103, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.