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New Directions in the Modeling and Forecasting of Commodity Markets

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Author Info
Walter C. Labys
Abstract

This paper reviews the current state of economic and econometric research dealing with the modeling of commodity markets and their role in economic development. The application of statistical methods to commodity markets and prices has been limited because of the erratic behavior of prices and quantities over time. Nonetheless, a very rich field of modeling and forecasting has grown over time. This research began with the analysis of agricultural demand, supply and prices in a market context and later was extended to mineral and energy industries. These models not only analyzed market history, but also evaluated commodity policies and forecast commodity prices. This paper first provides a perspective on the current status of this research and then offers prescriptions for the future.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Mondes en développement.

Volume (Year): 122 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 3-19
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Handle: RePEc:cai:meddbu:med_122_0003

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Related research
Keywords: Commodity models; econometric models; commodity price forecasting; commodities and economic development;

References listed on IDEAS
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  6. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
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  8. Frank, Murray & Stengos, Thanasis, 1989. "Measuring the Strangeness of Gold and Silver Rates of Return," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 553-67, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Agnon, Yehuda & Golan, Amos & Shearer, Matthew, 1999. "Nonparametric, nonlinear, short-term forecasting: theory and evidence for nonlinearities in the commodity markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 293-299, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Boum-Jong Choe, 1990. "Rational expectations and commodity price forecasts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 435, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  17. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
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  18. Paul Cashin & C John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 1999. "The myth of co-moving commodity prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Protopapadakis, Aris & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1431-55, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
  21. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Do Gold Market Returns Have Long Memory?," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 181-202, May.
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.

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