# Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

# Staff Report

Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291

Phone: (612) 204-5000

Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

Phone: (612) 204-5000

Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

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### 1991

**147 Optimal fiscal and monetary policy: some recent results***by*V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe**146 International real business cycles***by*David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland**145 International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles***by*David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe**144 Eliciting traders' knowledge in "frictionless" asset market***by*Edward J. Green**143 Contracts, constraints, and consumption***by*Edward J. Green & Soo-Nam Oh**142 A reconsideration of the problem of social cost: free riders and monopolists***by*V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones**141 Barter and monetary exchange under private information***by*Stephen D. Williamson & Randall Wright**140 More on money as a medium of exchange***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Randall Wright**139 Why is automobile insurance in Philadelphia so damn expensive?***by*Eric Smith & Randall Wright**138 Tax analysis in a real business cycle model: on measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps***by*Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman**137 Reputation with multiple relationships: reviving reputation models of debt***by*Harold L. Cole & Patrick J. Kehoe**136 Technology adoption and growth***by*Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott**135 Homework in macroeconomics: household production and aggregate fluctuations***by*Jess Benhabib & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright**134 A discussion of Cooley and Hansen's "welfare costs of moderate inflations."***by*Randall Wright**133 Indivisibilities, lotteries, and sunspot equilibria***by*Karl Shell & Randall Wright**132 Seigniorage as a tax: a quantitative evaluation***by*Ayse Imrohoroglu & Edward C. Prescott**131 A note on labor contracts with private information and household production***by*Ed Nosal & Richard Rogerson & Randall Wright

### 1990

**130 The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles***by*Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott**129 The permanent income hypothesis revisited***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & David A. Marshall

### 1989

**128 Duality and arbitrage with transactions costs: theory and applications***by*Michael J. Stutzer**127 Periodic linear-quadratic methods for modeling seasonality***by*Richard M. Todd**126 The firm and the plant in general equilibrium theory***by*Andreas Hornstein & Edward C. Prescott**125 Sustainable plans and debt***by*V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe**124 Sustainable plans and mutual default***by*V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe**123 A contribution to the pure theory of money***by*Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Randall Wright**122 Sustainable plans***by*V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe**121 International coordination of fiscal policy in limiting economies***by*V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe**120 How little we know about budget policy effects***by*Preston J. Miller & William Roberds**119 Restrictions on financial intermediaries and implications for aggregate fluctuations: Canada and the United States, 1870-1913***by*Stephen D. Williamson**118 Determinacy of equilibria in dynamic models with finitely many consumers***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Paul M. Romer**117 Labor contracts in a model of imperfect competition***by*V. V. Chari & Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli

### 1988

**116 On the denomination of government debt: a critique of the portfolio balance approach***by*David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe**115 Time consistency and policy***by*V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott**114 Can there be short-period deterministic cycles when people are long lived?***by*S. Rao Aiyagari**113 A generalized variance bounds test***by*Tryphon E. Kollintzas**112 International financial intermediation and aggregate fluctuations under alternative exchange rate regimes***by*Jeremy Greenwood & Stephen D. Williamson

### 1987

**111 Monetary targeting in a dynamic macro model***by*William Roberds**110 Seasonalities in security returns: the case of earnings announcements***by*V. V. Chari & Ravi Jagannathan & Aharon R. Ofer**109 The quantitative significance of the Lucas critique***by*Preston J. Miller & William Roberds**108 Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist**107 Vector autoregressions and reality***by*David E. Runkle**106 Is consumption insufficiently sensitive to innovations in income?***by*Lawrence J. Christiano

### 1986

**105 Solution of linear-quadratic- Gaussian dynamic games using variational methods***by*William Roberds**104 Models of policy under stochastic replanning***by*William Roberds**103 International policy cooperation may be undesirable***by*Patrick J. Kehoe**102 Theory ahead of business cycle measurement***by*Edward C. Prescott**100 Dynamic coalitions, growth, and the firm***by*Edward C. Prescott & John H. Boyd**98 Coordination of fiscal policies in a world economy***by*Patrick J. Kehoe**93 Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution***by*Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims

### 1985

**101 A method for estimating the timing interval in a linear econometric model, with an application to Taylor's model of staggered contracts***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**99 Ricardian equivalence and money dominated in return: are they mutually consistent generally?***by*Neil Wallace**87 Financial intermediary-coalitions***by*John H. Boyd & Edward C. Prescott

### 1984

**95 Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions four years of experience***by*Robert B. Litterman**94 Output variability in an open-economy macro model with variance-dependent parameters***by*Warren E. Weber**92 Specifying vector autoregressions for macroeconomic forecasting***by*Robert B. Litterman**91 Time consistency of optimal plans: an elementary primer***by*Michael J. Stutzer**90 Correspondence principles for concave orthogonal games***by*Michael J. Stutzer**89 Money, real interest rates, and output: a reinterpretation of postwar U.S. data***by*Robert B. Litterman & Laurence M. Weiss

### 1983

**88 Gresham's law or Gresham's fallacy?***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber**86 Income stability and economic efficiency under alternative tax schemes***by*Preston J. Miller**85 A model of commodity money***by*Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace**84 A random walk, Markov model for the distribution of time series***by*Robert B. Litterman**82 Optimal control of the money supply***by*Robert B. Litterman**76 Variable rate subsidies: the inefficiency of in-kind transfers revisited***by*Michael J. Stutzer**73 Identification of continuous time rational expectations models from discrete time data***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**51 A price discrimination analysis of monetary policy***by*John Bryant & Neil Wallace

### 1982

**83 A model of circulating private debt***by*Robert M. Townsend & Neil Wallace**81 A test of the intertemporal asset pricing model***by*Rajnish Mehra & Edward C. Prescott**80 The Free Banking Era: new evidence on laissez-faire banking***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber**79 A new explanation for free bank failures***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber**78 A use of index models in macroeconomic forecasting***by*Robert B. Litterman**77 Beyond demand and supply curves in macroeconomics***by*Thomas J. Sargent**75 Formulating and estimating continuous time rational expectations models***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**67 Fiscal policy in a monetarist model***by*Preston J. Miller

### 1981

**74 Aggregation over time and the inverse optimal predictor problem for adaptive expectations in continuous time***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**72 The dimensionality of the aliasing problem in models with rational spectral densities***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**71 Exact linear rational expectations models: specification and estimation***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**70 Instrumental variables procedures for estimating linear rational expectations models***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**69 A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**68 Economic stabilization policy: a survey***by*Preston J. Miller**66 Parametric properties of tax effort revenue sharing***by*Michael J. Stutzer**65 A method for estimating distributed lags when observations are randomly missing***by*Melvin Hinich & Warren E. Weber**64 The real bills doctrine vs. the quantity theory: a reconsideration***by*Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace**63 Another note on deadweight loss***by*Michael J. Stutzer**57 A generalized equilibrium solution for game theory***by*John Bryant

### 1980

**62 A suggestion for further simplifying the theory of money***by*John Bryant & Neil Wallace**61 A hybrid fiat-commodity monetary system***by*Neil Wallace**60 Rational expectations models and the aliasing phenomenon***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**59 Methods for estimating continuous time Rational Expectations models from discrete time data***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**58 Interpreting economic time series***by*Thomas J. Sargent**56 Bank collapse and depression***by*John Bryant**55 Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model***by*Michael J. Stutzer**54 A general method of solution for game theory and its relevance for economic theorizing***by*John Bryant**53 Costly information and the stock market***by*John Bryant**50 Shocks, learning, and persistence***by*John Bryant**48 The competitive provision of fiat money***by*John Bryant**47 A model of long-term contracts***by*John Bryant

### 1979

**52 Minimax-Nash***by*John Bryant**49 The CBO's policy analysis: an unquestionable misuse of a questionable theory***by*Preston J. Miller & Arthur J. Rolnick**46 Demand management: an illustrative example***by*John Bryant**45 Optimal contracts and competitive markets with costly state verification***by*Robert M. Townsend**44 A Modigliani-Miller theorem for open-market operations***by*Neil Wallace**43 The political economy of overlapping generations***by*John Bryant**42 Monetary policy in the presence of a stochastic deficit***by*John Bryant & Neil Wallace**41 Perfect substitution in the models of the CD market***by*Arthur J. Rolnick**40 "Tobin's Q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium***by*Thomas J. Sargent

### 1978

**39 Usury laws and the housing market: the Minnesota experience***by*Rolnick**38 Transactions demand for money***by*John Bryant**37 The overlapping-generations model of fiat money***by*Neil Wallace**36 A simple general equilibrium model of depression***by*John Bryant**35 A comment on "implicit contracts and the underemployment equilibrium"***by*John Bryant**34 Open-market operations in a model of regulated, insured intermediaries***by*John Bryant & Neil Wallace**33 Approximately complete markets: a generalization of the states of the world model***by*John Bryant**27 Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations***by*Thomas J. Sargent**26 A note on maximum likelihood estimation of the rational expectations model of the term structure***by*Thomas J. Sargent**24 Samuelson's consumption-loan model with country-specific fiat monies***by*John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace**19 Rational expectations forecasts from nonrational models***by*Paul A. Anderson

### 1977

**32 The impact of welfare work registration rules on labor market data***by*John Bryant**31 Rational expectations and policy evaluation in macroeconometric models***by*Paul A. Anderson**30 A comparison of gasoline sales taxes and automobile efficiency taxes as methods for reducing gasoline consumption***by*John P. Danforth**29 Price setting 'perfect competitors'***by*John Bryant**28 The inefficiency of a nominal national debt***by*John Bryant & Neil Wallace**25 Rational expectations, econometric exogeneity and consumption***by*Thomas J. Sargent**23 Samuelson's pure consumption loans model with constant returns-to-scale storage***by*Neil Wallace**22 On simplifying the theory of fiat money***by*Neil Wallace**21 Improving econometric forecasts by using subperiod data***by*Paul A. Anderson & Thomas M. Supel**20 The maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in mixed autoregressive moving-average multivariate models***by*Rusdu Saracoglu**18 Confidence-sensitive funds and contingency planning***by*James N. Duprey**17 Competitive aspects of EFTS: impact of the development of remote electronic banking facilities on Minnesota's financial institutions***by*Don Henczel**16 Deposit insurance and bank regulation: a partial equilibrium exposition***by*John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace**15 A payments mechanism without Fed involvement and Fed monetary policy without required reserves***by*Neil Wallace

### 1976

**14 Causality characterizations: bivariate, trivariate, and multivariate propositions***by*Gary R. Skoog**13 Systematically missing data in econometric models***by*Gary R. Skoog**9 Portfolio autarky: a welfare analysis***by*John H. Kareken & Neil Wallace

### 1975

**12 How to use econometric models to forecast***by*Thomas M. Supel**11 Local banking markets and the relation between structure, prices, and nonprices in rural areas***by*Richard W. Stolz**10 International banking: where do we go from here?***by*K. Auerbach

### 1973

**8 Revenue sharing: implications for the Ninth Federal Reserve District***by*David S. Dahl

### 1971

**7 Fiscal deadlock in Minnesota***by*David S. Dahl**6 Comments on price indexes and inflation***by*Thomas M. Supel

### 1970

**4 An inquiry into shift-and-share analysis with application to the Ninth Federal Reserve District***by*Garson Sher**3 Branch regulation and its effect on commercial bank entry***by*Rodney Pakonen**2 Branch versus unit banking: a survey of the literature***by*Rodney Pakonen

### 1968

**1 Changes in bank ownership: the impact on operating performance***by*Paul F. Jessup

### 1967

**5 A working paper on bank structure and competition***by*Paul F. Jessup