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Content
2024
- 2024-054 Why Have Long-term Treasury Yields Fallen Since the 1980s? Expected Short Rates and Term Premiums in (Quasi-) Real Time
by Michael T. Kiley
- 2024-053 What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?
by Hassan Afrouzi & Joel P. Flynn & Choongryul Yang
- 2024-051 Optimal Design of Contingent Capital
by Lionel Melin & Ahyan Panjwani
- 2024-049 Predicting Analysts’ S&P 500 Earnings Forecast Errors and Stock Market Returns using Macroeconomic Data and Nowcasts
by Antonio Gil de Rubio Cruz & Steven A. Sharpe
- 2024-048 Sexual Orientation and Financial Well-Being in the United States
by Christopher S. Carpenter & Kabir Dasgupta & Zofsha Merchant & Alexander Plum
- 2024-047 Inflation, Price Dispersion, and Welfare: The Role of Consumer Search
by Francisca Sara-Zaror
- 2024-046 CRE Redevelopment Options and the Use of Mortgage Financing
by David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein
- 2024-045 The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program
by David P. Glancy & Felicia Ionescu & Elizabeth C. Klee & Antonis Kotidis & Michael Siemer & Andrei Zlate
- 2024-044 Trademarks in Banking
by Ryuichiro Izumi & Antonis Kotidis & Paul E. Soto
- 2024-043 The Slope of the Phillips Curve
by Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit
- 2024-042 Demand Uncertainty, Selection, and Trade
by Erick Sager & Olga A. Timoshenko
- 2024-041 Continuity and Change in the Federal Reserve’s Perspective on Price Stability
by J. David López-Salido & Emily J. Markowitz & Edward Nelson
- 2024-040 Information Friction in OTC Interdealer Markets
by Benjamin Gardner & Yesol Huh
- 2024-039 Reaching for Duration and Leverage in the Treasury Market
by Daniel Barth & R. Jay Kahn & Phillip J. Monin & Oleg Sokolinskiy
- 2024-038 Income Shocks and Their Transmission into Consumption
by Edmund Crawley & Alexandros Theloudis
- 2024-037 Factor Selection and Structural Breaks
by Siddhartha Chib & Simon C. Smith
- 2024-036 Households' Preferences Over Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs
by Damjan Pfajfar & Fabian Winkler
- 2024-035 Central Banking Post Crises
by Michael T. Kiley & Frederic S. Mishkin
- 2024-034 Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures
by Miguel Acosta & Connor M. Brennan & Margaret M. Jacobson
- 2024-033 Monetary Policy Strategies to Foster Price Stability and a Strong Labor Market
by Michael T. Kiley
- 2024-032 Monetary Policy, Employment Shortfalls, and the Natural Rate Hypothesis
by Michael T. Kiley
- 2024-031 Are Supply Networks Efficiently Resilient?
by Agostino Capponi & Chuan Du & Joseph E. Stiglitz
- 2024-030 Evaluating the Effects of Geographic Adjustments on Poverty Measures Using Self-Reported Financial Well-Being Scores
by Jeff Larrimore
- 2024-029 Personal Tax Changes and Financial Well-being: Evidence from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
by Christine L. Dobridge & Joanne W. Hsu & Mike Zabek
- 2024-028 Tale About Inflation Tails
by Olesya V. Grishchenko & Laura Wilcox
- 2024-027 Government Debt, Limited Foresight, and Longer-term Interest Rates
by Christopher J. Gust & Arsenios Skaperdas
- 2024-026 Manufacturing Sentiment: Forecasting Industrial Production with Text Analysis
by Tomaz Cajner & Leland D. Crane & Christopher J. Kurz & Norman J. Morin & Paul E. Soto & Betsy Vrankovich
- 2024-025 Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions Under Lender Scrutiny
by Buhui Qiu & Teng Wang
- 2024-024 Navigating Higher Education Insurance: An Experimental Study on Demand and Adverse Selection
by Ege Aksu & Sidhya Balakrishnan & Eric Bettinger & Jonathan S. Hartley & Michael S. Kofoed & Dubravka Ritter & Douglas A. Webber
- 2024-023 Does it Pay to Send Multiple Pre-Paid Incentives? Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
by Kate Bachtell & Andrew C. Chang & Joanne W. Hsu & Eva Ma & Micah Sjoblom
- 2024-021 Financial Stability Implications of CBDC
by Francesca Carapella & Jin-Wook Chang & Sebastian Infante & Melissa Leistra & Arazi Lubis & Alexandros Vardoulakis
- 2024-020 Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation
by Leland D. Crane & Emily Green & Molly Harnish & Will McClennan & Paul E. Soto & Betsy Vrankovich & Jacob Williams
- 2024-019 Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages
by Simon Firestone & Nathan Y. Godin & Akos Horvath & Jacob Sagi
- 2024-018 Institution, Major, and Firm-Specific Premia: Evidence from Administrative Data
by Ben Ost & Weixiang Pan & Douglas A. Webber
- 2024-017 A New Measure of Climate Transition Risk Based on Distance to a Global Emission Factor Frontier
by Talan B. İşcan & Benjamin Dennis
- 2024-015 How Private Equity Fuels Non-Bank Lending
by Sharjil M. Haque & Simon Mayer & Teng Wang
- 2024-014 Linear Factor Models and the Estimation of Expected Returns
by Cisil Sarisoy & Bas J.M. Werker
- 2024-013 In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles
by Jack Dunbar & Christopher J. Kurz & Geng Li & Maria D. Tito
- 2024-012 Parental Employment at the Onset of the Pandemic: Effects of Lockdowns and Government Policies
by Kabir Dasgupta & Linda Kirkpatrick & Alexander Plum
- 2024-010 Land development and frictions to housing supply over the business cycle
by Hyunseung Oh & Choongryul Yang & Chamna Yoon
- 2024-009 Reexamining the 'Role of the Community Reinvestment Act in Mortgage Supply and the U.S. Housing Boom'
by Kenneth P. Brevoort
- 2024-008 Difference-in-Differences in the Marketplace
by Robert Minton & Casey B. Mulligan
- 2024-007 Has Intergenerational Progress Stalled? Income Growth Over Five Generations of Americans
by Kevin C. Corinth & Jeff Larrimore
- 2024-006 The Informational Centrality of Banks
by Nathan Foley-Fisher & Gary Gorton & Stéphane Verani
- 2024-005 Nonlinear Inflation Dynamics in Menu Cost Economies
by Andres Blanco & Corina Boar & Callum J. Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan
- 2024-004 What makes a job better? Survey evidence from job changers
by Katherine Lim & Mike Zabek
- 2024-003 Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market
by Celso Brunetti & Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon
- 2024-002 Government-Sponsored Mortgage Securitization and Financial Crises
by Wayne Passmore & Roger Sparks
- 2024-001 A Field Guide to Monetary Policy Implementation Issues in a New World with CBDC, Stablecoin, and Narrow Banks
by James A. Clouse
- 2024-095r1 Substitution Bias and Fixed-Weight Price Indices in Time-Dependent Pricing Models
by Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Benjamin K. Johannsen
- 2024-088r1 Locked In: Mobility, Market Tightness, and House Prices
by Aditya Aladangady & Jacob Krimmel & Tess C. Scharlemann
- 2024-052r1 HANK Comes of Age: Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Overlapping Generations
by Bence Bardóczy
- 2024-050r1 (Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves
by Hie Joo Ahn & Jeremy B. Rudd
- 2024-022r1 Assessing the Common Ownership Hypothesis in the US Banking Industry
by Jacob P. Gramlich & Serafin J. Grundl
- 2024-016r1 Shovel Ready Projects and Commercial Construction Activity’s Long and Variable Lags
by David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein
- 2024-011r1 Monetary Policy Shocks: Data or Methods?
by Connor M. Brennan & Margaret M. Jacobson & Christian Matthes & Todd B. Walker
2023
- 2023-078 The TCJA and Domestic Corporate Tax Rates
by Christine L. Dobridge & Patrick Kennedy & Paul Landefeld & Jacob Mortenson
- 2023-077 Pre-LBO Credit Market Conditions and Post-LBO Target Behavior
by Seung Kwak & Charles Press
- 2023-075 Supply Chain Constraints and Inflation
by Diego Comin & Robert C. Johnson & Callum J. Jones
- 2023-074 Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy
by Rehim Kılıç
- 2023-073 Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy
by Elliot Anenberg & Tess C. Scharlemann & Eileen van Straelen
- 2023-072 Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Implications for Banking and Financial Stability
by Sebastian Infante & Kyungmin Kim & Anna Orlik & André F. Silva & Robert J. Tetlow
- 2023-071 LCR Premium in the Federal Funds Market
by Alyssa G. Anderson & Manjola Tase
- 2023-070 Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant
by Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & Rakeen Tanvir
- 2023-069 Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities
by Isabel Cairó & Hess T. Chung & Francesco Ferrante & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Camilo Morales-Jimenez & Damjan Pfajfar
- 2023-068 The Effects of CBDC on the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet
by Christopher J. Gust & Kyungmin Kim & Romina Ruprecht
- 2023-067 Measuring Interest Rate Risk Management by Financial Institutions
by Celso Brunetti & Nathan Foley-Fisher & Stéphane Verani
- 2023-066 Flood Risk Mapping and the Distributional Impacts of Climate Information
by Joakim A. Weill
- 2023-065 Labor Market Discrimination and the Racial Unemployment Gap: Can Monetary Policy Make a Difference?
by Isabel Cairó & Avi Lipton
- 2023-064 On the Negatives of Negative Interest Rates
by Aleksander Berentsen & Romina Ruprecht & Hugo van Buggenum
- 2023-063 Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) Standard and Banks' Information Production
by Sehwa Kim & Seil Kim & Anya V. Kleymenova & Rongchen Li
- 2023-062 A Theory of Safe Asset Creation, Systemic Risk, and Aggregate Demand
by Levent Altinoglu
- 2023-061 The Swaps Strike Back: Evaluating Expectations of One-Year Inflation
by Colin Campbell & Anthony M. Diercks & Steven A. Sharpe & Daniel Soques
- 2023-060 Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications
by Francesca Carapella & Grace Chuan & Jacob Gerszten & Nathan Swem
- 2023-059 Data Privacy for Digital Asset Systems
by Jillian Mascelli
- 2023-058 Are Real Assets Owners Less Averse to Inflation? Evidence from Consumer Sentiments and Inflation Expectations
by Geng Li & Nitish R. Sinha
- 2023-057 An Overview of Personal Loans in the U.S
by Jessica N. Flagg & Simona Hannon
- 2023-056 FinTech and Banks: Strategic Partnerships That Circumvent State Usury Laws
by Gregory E. Elliehausen & Simona Hannon
- 2023-053 The Pricing Kernel in Options
by Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs & Hyung Joo Kim
- 2023-052 Can Measurement Error Explain Slow Productivity Growth in Construction?
by Daniel Garcia & Raven S. Molloy
- 2023-051 Sticky Leverage: Comment
by Andrea Ajello & Ander Pérez-Orive & Bálint Szőke
- 2023-050 Disclosure Regulation, Intangible Capital and the Disappearance of Public Firms
by Sara Casella & Hanbaek Lee & Sergio Villalvazo
- 2023-049 Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
by Camelia Minoiu & Andrés Schneider & Min Wei
- 2023-048 Your Friends, Your Credit: Social Capital Measures Derived from Social Media and the Credit Market
by Jesse Bricker & Geng Li
- 2023-047 Affording Degree Completion: An Experimental Study of Completion Grants at Accessible Public Universities
by Christine Baker-Smith & Kallie Clark & Sara Goldrick-Rab & Christel Perkins & Douglas A. Webber & Travis T. York
- 2023-046 Termination of SNAP Emergency Allotments, Food Sufficiency, and Economic Hardships
by Kabir Dasgupta & Alexander Plum
- 2023-045 Aggregate Implications of Deviations from Modigliani-Miller: A Sufficient Statistics Approach
by Robert J. Kurtzman & David Zeke
- 2023-044 Interconnected DeFi: Ripple Effects from the Terra Collapse
by Anton Badev & Cy Watsky
- 2023-043 College Networks and Re-employment of Displaced Workers
by Ben Ost & Weixiang Pan & Douglas A. Webber
- 2023-042 A Comprehensive Empirical Evaluation of Biases in Expectation Formation
by Kenneth Eva & Fabian Winkler
- 2023-041 End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns
by Michael Smolyansky
- 2023-040 Finite-State Markov-Chain Approximations: A Hidden Markov Approach
by Eva F. Janssens & Sean McCrary
- 2023-039 The FOMC's Use of Operational Targets: 85 Years and Counting
by Jeff W. Huther & Kevin F. Kiernan & Elizabeth C. Klee & Ethan Rodriguez-Shah
- 2023-038 Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
by Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song
- 2023-037 Firm Financial Conditions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
by Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Daniel Ostry & John Rogers
- 2023-036 Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers
by Bennett Schmanski & Chiara Scotti & Clara Vega
- 2023-035 Measuring Job Loss during the Pandemic Recession in Real Time with Twitter Data
by Anbar Aizenman & Connor M. Brennan & Tomaz Cajner & Cynthia L. Doniger & Jacob Williams
- 2023-034 More than Words: Twitter Chatter and Financial Market Sentiment
by Andrea Ajello & Diego Silva & Travis Adams & Francisco Vazquez-Grande
- 2023-031 The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered
by Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn
- 2023-030 Endogenous Bargaining Power and Declining Labor Compensation Share
by Juan C. Córdoba & Anni T. Isojärvi & Haoran Li
- 2023-029 A Financial Stress Index for a Small Open Economy: The Australian Case
by Pedro Gomis-Porqueras & Romina Ruprecht & Xuan Zhou
- 2023-028 The Effects of Volatility on Liquidity in the Treasury Market
by Andrew C. Meldrum & Oleg Sokolinskiy
- 2023-027 Financial and Macroeconomic Data Through the Lens of a Nonlinear Dynamic Factor Model
by Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Alexey Khazanov & Molin Zhong
- 2023-026 Less Bank Regulation, More Non-Bank Lending
by Mary Chen & Seung Jung Lee & Daniel Neuhann & Farzad Saidi
- 2023-025 Implications of Student Loan COVID-19 Pandemic Relief Measures for Families with Children
by Sarena Goodman & Simona Hannon & Adam Isen & Alvaro Mezza
- 2023-024 The Role of Property Assessment Oversight in School Finance Inequality
by Alex Combs & Erin Troland
- 2023-023 Workplace Automation and Corporate Liquidity Policy
by Jessie Jiaxu Wang
- 2023-022 The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?
by Michael T. Kiley
- 2023-021 Stressed Banks? Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review
by Puriya Abbassi & Rajkamal Iyer & José-Luis Peydró & Paul E. Soto
- 2023-020 It's Not Who You Know—It's Who Knows You: Employee Social Capital and Firm Performance
by DuckKi Cho & Lyungmae Choi & Jessie Jiaxu Wang
- 2023-019 The Long-Run Real Effects of Banking Crises: Firm-Level Investment Dynamics and the Role of Wage Rigidity
by Carlo Wix
- 2023-018 Private Equity and Debt Contract Enforcement: Evidence from Covenant Violations
by Sharjil M. Haque & Anya V. Kleymenova
- 2023-017 Racial Unemployment Gaps and the Disparate Impact of the Inflation Tax
by Mohammed Ait Lahcen & Garth Baughman & Hugo van Buggenum
- 2023-016 Contagion in Debt and Collateral Markets
by Jin-Wook Chang & Grace Chuan
- 2023-015 Breaks in the Phillips Curve: Evidence from Panel Data
by Jonathan H. Wright
- 2023-014 Bank Relationships and the Geography of PPP Lending
by David P. Glancy
- 2023-013 Household, Bank, and Insurer Exposure to Miami Hurricanes: a flow-of-risk analysis
by Benjamin Dennis
- 2023-012 Early Joiners and Startup Performance
by Joonkyu Choi & Nathan Goldschlag & John Haltiwanger & J. Daniel Kim
- 2023-011 Using U.S. Business Registry Data to Corroborate Corporate Identity: Case Study of the Legal Entity Identifier
by William F. Treacy
- 2023-010 IT Shields: Technology Adoption and Economic Resilience during the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Myrto Oikonomou & Nicola Pierri & Yannick Timmer
- 2023-009 Does Private Equity Over-Lever Portfolio Companies?
by Sharjil M. Haque
- 2023-008 Recession Signals and Business Cycle Dynamics: Tying the Pieces Together
by Michael T. Kiley
- 2023-007 Who Pays For Your Rewards? Redistribution in the Credit Card Market
by Sumit Agarwal & Andrea F. Presbitero & André F. Silva & Carlo Wix
- 2023-006 Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality
by Daniel R. Ringo
- 2023-005 Beyond "Horizontal" and "Vertical": The Welfare Effects of Complex Integration
by Margaret Loudermilk & Gloria Sheu & Charles Taragin
- 2023-004 Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response
by Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter
- 2023-003 The Information Value of Past Losses in Operational Risk
by Filippo Curti & Marco Migueis
- 2023-002 Welfare and Spending Effects of Consumption Stimulus Policies
by Christopher D. Carroll & Edmund Crawley & Håkon Tretvoll
- 2023-001 Bad News, Good News: Coverage and Response Asymmetries
by Luca Gambetti
- 2023-076r1 Debt Flexibility
by Rhys M. Bidder & Nicolas Crouzet & Margaret M. Jacobson & Michael Siemer
- 2023-055r1 Systemic Credit Risk Premium: Insights from Credit Derivatives Markets
by Kiwoong Byun & Baeho Kim & Dong Hwan Oh
- 2023-054r1 Options on Interbank Rates and Implied Disaster Risk
by Hitesh Doshi & Hyung Joo Kim & Sang Byung Seo
- 2023-033r1 Optimal Bidder Selection in Clearing House Default Auctions
by Rodney Garratt & David Murphy & Travis D. Nesmith & Xiaopeng Wu
- 2023-032r1 Recovery of 1933
by Margaret M. Jacobson & Eric M. Leeper & Bruce Preston
2022
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