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The Inflation Accelerator

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Blanco
  • Corina Boar

  • Callum J. Jones

  • Virgiliu Midrigan

Abstract

We develop a tractable sticky price model in which the fraction of price changesevolves endogenously over time and, consistent with the evidence, increases with inflation. Because we assume that firms sell multiple products and choose how many, but not which, prices to adjust in any given period, our model admits exact aggregation and reduces to a one-equation extension of the Calvo model. This additional equation determines the fraction of price changes. The model features a powerful inflation accelerator – a feedback loop between inflation and the fraction of price changes – which significantly increases the slope of the Phillips curve during periods of high inflation. Applied to the U.S. time series, our model predicts that the slope of the Phillips curve ranges from 0.02 in the 1990s to 0.12 in the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Blanco & Corina Boar & Callum J. Jones & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2024. "The Inflation Accelerator," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-078, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-78
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.078
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levy, Daniel & Bergen, Mark & Dutta, Shantanu & Venable, Robert, 1997. "The Magnitude of Menu Costs: Direct Evidence from Large U.S. Supermarket Chains," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 112(3), pages 791-824.
    2. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2014. "Price Setting With Menu Cost for Multiproduct Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 89-135, January.
    3. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    4. Terry Fitzgerald & Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2024. "Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 114-142, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Meyer, Brent H. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2025. "Unit cost expectations: Firms’ perspectives on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    2. Hashmat Khan & Sergio Lago Alves, 2025. "Are New Keynesian Models Useful When Trend Inflation is Not Very Low?," Carleton Economic Papers 25-01, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    3. Ko Munakata, 2026. "A tractable menu cost model with an aggregate markup drift," BIS Working Papers 1327, Bank for International Settlements.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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