IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2024-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We explore a new source of data on layoffs: timely 8-K filings with the Securities and and Exchange Commission. We develop measures of both the number of reported layoff events and the number of affected workers. These series are highly correlated with the business cycle and other layoff indicators. Linking firm-level reported layoff events with WARN notices suggests that 8-K filings are sometimes available before WARN notices, and preliminary regression results suggest our layoff series are useful for forecasting. We also document the industry composition of the data and specific areas where the industry shares diverge.

Suggested Citation

  • Leland D. Crane & Emily Green & Molly Harnish & Will McClennan & Paul E. Soto & Betsy Vrankovich & Jacob Williams, 2024. "Tracking Real Time Layoffs with SEC Filings: A Preliminary Investigation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-020, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-20
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024020pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2024.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Regis Barnichon & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2012. "The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 83-131.
    2. Pawel M. Krolikowski & Kurt G. Lunsford, 2024. "Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 462-480, April.
    3. Amir Sufi, 2009. "Bank Lines of Credit in Corporate Finance: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1057-1088, March.
    4. Amir Sufi, 2009. "Bank Lines of Credit in Corporate Finance: An Empirical Analysis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1057-1088.
    5. Bodnaruk, Andriy & Loughran, Tim & McDonald, Bill, 2015. "Using 10-K Text to Gauge Financial Constraints," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 623-646, August.
    6. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fang, Yiwei & Fiordelisi, Franco & Hasan, Iftekhar & Leung, Woon Sau & Wong, Gabriel, 2023. "Corporate culture and firm value: Evidence from crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Brown, Scott & Powers, Eric, 2020. "The life cycle of make-whole call provisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Weiping Hu & Xiao Zhang & Ye He, 2024. "Cash flow sensitivity of cash: when should we use it to measure financial constraints?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 637-682, February.
    4. Friberg, Richard & Seiler, Thomas, 2017. "Risk and ambiguity in 10-Ks: An examination of cash holding and derivatives use," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 608-631.
    5. Kelvin K. F. Law & Lillian F. Mills, 2015. "Taxes and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Linguistic Cues," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 777-819, September.
    6. Margherita Bottero & Stefano schiaffi, 2022. "Firm liquidity and the transmission of monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1378, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Lotfaliei, Babak, 2018. "Zero leverage and the value in waiting to have debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 335-349.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Colak, Gonul & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Commitment or constraint? The effect of loan covenants on merger and acquisition activity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    9. Wenlian Gao & Feifei Zhu & Kai Chen, 2023. "The role of bank lenders in firm leverage adjustments," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 63-97, February.
    10. Liu, Pu & Nguyen, Hazel T., 2020. "CEO characteristics and tone at the top inconsistency," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    11. Murillo Campello & Heitor Almeida, 2010. "Aggregate Risk and the Choice Between Cash and Lines of Credit," 2010 Meeting Papers 1287, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Felipe Restrepo & Lina Cardona‐Sosa & Philip E. Strahan, 2019. "Funding Liquidity without Banks: Evidence from a Shock to the Cost of Very Short‐Term Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2875-2914, December.
    13. Erwan Morellec & Philip Valta & Alexei Zhdanov, 2015. "Financing Investment: The Choice Between Bonds and Bank Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(11), pages 2580-2602, November.
    14. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Igor Cunha & Michael S. Weisbach, 2014. "Corporate Liquidity Management: A Conceptual Framework and Survey," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 135-162, December.
    15. Matjaž Volk & Polona Trefalt, 2014. "Access to Credit as a Growth Constraint," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 29-39, May.
    16. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo & Weisbach, Michael S., 2011. "Corporate financial and investment policies when future financing is not frictionless," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 675-693, June.
    18. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2023. "The role of credit lines and multiple lending in financial contagion and systemic events," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    19. Brown, James R. & Martinsson, Gustav & Thomann, Christian, 2021. "Government lending in a crisis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Shang, Chenguang, 2021. "Dare to play with fire? Managerial ability and the use of short-term debt," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    21. Jana P. Fidrmuc & Tereza Tykvova, 2023. "Are Acquirer Shareholders Happier when Their Industries Are Unhappy?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-52, Swiss Finance Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Labor markets; Large language models; Alternative data; Natural language processing; Layoffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.