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In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles

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Abstract

This paper explores the impact of two fiscal programs, the Economic Impact Payments and the Paycheck Protection Program, on vehicle purchases and relates our findings to post-pandemic price pressures. We find that receiving a stimulus check increased the probability of purchasing new vehicles. In addition, the disbursement of funds from the Paycheck Protection Program was associated with a rise in local new car registrations. Our estimates indicate that these two programs account for a boost of 1 3/4 million units -- or 12 percent -- to new car sales in 2020. Furthermore, the induced boost in sales coincided with the presence of significant production constraints and exacerbated an inventory drawdown, thereby contributing to the rapid increase in new vehicle prices that prevailed in the subsequent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Jack Dunbar & Christopher J. Kurz & Geng Li & Maria D. Tito, 2024. "In the Driver's Seat: Pandemic Fiscal Stimulus and Light Vehicles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-13
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.013
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024013pap.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1107-1142.
    2. Mark Hoekstra & Steven L. Puller & Jeremy West, 2017. "Cash for Corollas: When Stimulus Reduces Spending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    3. Jonathan A. Parker & Jake Schild & Laura Erhard & David S. Johnson, 2021. "Household Spending Responses to the Economic Impact Payments of 2020: Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Economic Working Papers 544, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    4. Olivier Armantier & Leo Goldman & Gizem Koşar & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2021. "An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks," Liberty Street Economics 20210407, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    5. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 374-379, May.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 686-702, September.
    7. Erich Battistin, 2002. "Errors in Survey Reports of Consumption Expenditures," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 C4-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    8. Alicia M. Robb & David T. Robinson, 2014. "The Capital Structure Decisions of New Firms," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(1), pages 153-179, January.
    9. Taylor, John B., 2022. "The effect of the rescue plans and the need for policies to increase economic growth," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 768-779.
    10. Jacob Orchard & Valerie A. Ramey & Johannes F. Wieland, 2023. "Micro MPCs and Macro Counterfactuals: The Case of the 2008 Rebates," NBER Working Papers 31584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Changes in gasoline and automobile prices since the pandemic
      by ? in FRED blog on 2024-08-29 13:00:00

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discretionary Fiscal Policy; Light Vehicle Purchases; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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