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Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandro Gavazza

    (London School of Economics)

  • Andrea Lanteri

    (Duke University)

Abstract

This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics arising in consumer durable goods markets in response to aggregate credit supply shocks. To this end, we develop a general-equilibrium model of durable consumption with heterogeneous households facing idiosyncratic income risk and borrowing constraints. Two novel features of our framework are that: 1) used durable goods trade on secondary markets at market-clearing prices; and 2) households endogenously choose when to scrap them. The model successfully matches several empirical patterns of U.S. car markets around the Great Recession that we document using a rich dataset on the prices of new and used vehicles as well as CEX data on households' vehicle replacement activity. After a negative credit shock (i.e., a tightening of the borrowing limit), debt-constrained households postpone the decision to scrap and upgrade their cars. The economy experiences a period of low resale prices for used cars, which reduces wealthy households' incentives to replace their cars, thereby decreasing new-car sales. We also use our framework to study the effects of aggregate income shocks, the role of cars as collateral, and to evaluate targeted fiscal stimulus policies such as the Car Allowance Rebate System in 2009 (``Cash for clunkers'').

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "Credit Shocks and Equilibrium Dynamics in Consumer Durable Goods Markets," 2018 Meeting Papers 384, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:384
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Lanteri, 2018. "The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2383-2419, September.
    2. Cho, Sungjin & Rust, John, 2008. "Is econometrics useful for private policy making? A case study of replacement policy at an auto rental company," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 243-257, July.
    3. Mark Hoekstra & Steven L. Puller & Jeremy West, 2017. "Cash for Corollas: When Stimulus Reduces Spending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2012. "The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: Evidence from the 2009 Cash for Clunkers Program," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1107-1142.
    5. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-436, June.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    7. Bernanke, Ben, 1985. "Adjustment costs, durables, and aggregate consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 41-68, January.
    8. Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2002. "Turnover of Used Durables in a Stationary Equilibrium: Are Older Goods Traded More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1390-1413, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L62 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Automobiles; Other Transportation Equipment; Related Parts and Equipment

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