IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgfe/2024-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages

Author

Abstract

We use model-implied volatility to proxy for property risk perceptions in the commercial real estate lending market. Although loan-to-value ratios (LTVs) unconditionally decreased following the Global Financial Crisis, LTVs conditioned on implied volatility and other theoretically motivated fundamental determinants of optimal leverage show no conclusive trend before or after the crisis. Taking reported property and loan attributes at face value, we find no clear pattern of unwarranted credit being extended to commercial real estate assets. We conclude that systematically higher LTV decisions pre-crisis would have primarily stemmed from risk misperceptions rather than imprudent practices. Our findings suggest that the aggregate LTV level should be interpreted as a proxy for lending standards only after controlling for aggregate risk perceptions, among a host of asset and lending market factors. Our findings also highlight the importance of measuring and tracking aggregate risk perceptions in informing regulators and policymakers.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Firestone & Nathan Y. Godin & Akos Horvath & Jacob Sagi, 2024. "Risk Perception and Loan Underwriting in Securitized Commercial Mortgages," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-19
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2024.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2024019pap.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/FEDS.2024.019?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wai K. Leung & C. F. Sirmans, 1990. "A Lattice Approach to Pricing Fixed‐Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 91-104, March.
    2. Lamont Black & John Krainer & Joseph Nichols, 2017. "From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-31, July.
    3. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Jarrow, Robert A., 2018. "CMBS market efficiency: The crisis and the recovery," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 159-186.
    2. Benjamin M. Blau & Ryan J. Whitby, 2014. "Speculative Trading In Reits," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 55-74, February.
    3. David P. Glancy & Robert J. Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein, 2022. "Loan Modifications and the Commercial Real Estate Market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Peimin Chen & Igor Kozhanov & Peng Liu & Chunchi Wu, 2021. "Commercial Mortgage‐Backed Security Pricing with Real Estate Liquidity Risk," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S2), pages 490-525, September.
    5. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan & Yang, Minxian, 2015. "Endogenous crisis dating and contagion using smooth transition structural GARCH," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 71-79.
    6. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Childs, Paul D. & Ott, Steven H. & Riddiough, Timothy J., 1996. "The value of recourse and cross-default clauses in commercial mortgage contracting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 511-536, April.
    8. Christopoulos, Andreas D., 2017. "The composition of CMBS risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 215-239.
    9. Ivan T. & Tom Zimmermann, 2021. "The "Privatization" of Municipal Debt," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 062, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Kyriaki Kosmidou & Dimitrios Kousenidis & Victoria Patsika, 2019. "The investigation of the dynamic linkages between real estate market and stock market in Greece," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 647-669, May.
    11. Lamont K Black & John R Krainer & Joseph B Nichols & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Safe Collateral, Arm’s-Length Credit: Evidence from the Commercial Real Estate Market," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5173-5211.
    12. Yamani, Ehab A. & Swanson, Peggy E., 2014. "Financial crises and the global value premium: Revisiting Fama and French," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 115-136.
    13. Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2018. "CMBS Subordination, Ratings Inflation, and Regulatory†Capital Arbitrage," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 175-201, March.
    14. David Glancy & John R. Krainer & Robert J. Kurtzman & Joseph B. Nichols, 2022. "Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2029-2080, October.
    15. Beate Monika Philipps, 2021. "Commercial Real Estate Loans - Categorization of an Investment Segment," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 5-26.
    16. Howard, Greg & Liebersohn, Jack, 2021. "Why is the rent so darn high? The role of growing demand to live in housing-supply-inelastic cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    17. Daniel Broxterman & Tingyu Zhou, 2023. "Information Frictions in Real Estate Markets: Recent Evidence and Issues," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 203-298, February.
    18. Reher, Michael, 2021. "Finance and the supply of housing quality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 357-376.
    19. Paoyu Huang & Chih-Te Yang & Yuhsin Chen & Yensen Ni, 2023. "A New Look on the Profitability of Fixed and Indexed Mortgage Products," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, August.
    20. Christopoulos, Andreas D. & Barratt, Joshua G., 2016. "Credit risk findings for commercial real estate loans using the reduced form," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 228-234.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loan underwriting; Lending standards; Global Financial Crisis; Mortgages; Real estate finance; Implied volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.