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An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?

  • Downing, Chris
  • Stanton, Richard
  • Wallace, Nancy E.
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    Mortgage-backed securities, with their relative structural simplicity and their lack of recovery rate uncertainty if default occurs, are particularly suitable for developing and testing risky debt valuation models. In this paper, we develop a two-factor structural mortgage pricing model in which rational mortgage-holders endogenously choose when to prepay and default subject to i. explicit frictions (transaction costs) payable when terminating their mortgages, ii. exogenous background terminations, and iii. a credit related impact of the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) on prepayment. We estimate the model using pool-level mortgage termination data for Freddie Mac Participation Certificates, and find that the effect of the house price factor on the results is both statistically and economically significant. Out-of-sample estimates of MBS prices produce option adjusted spreads of between 5 and 25 basis points, well within quoted values for these securities.

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    Paper provided by Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley in its series Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series with number qt2qb613r5.

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    Date of creation: 01 Apr 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:cdl:rpfina:qt2qb613r5
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    1. Sean Becketti & Charles S. Morris, 1990. "The prepayment experience of FNMA mortgage-backed securities," Research Working Paper 90-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
    3. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
    4. Wayne Archer & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 1995. "The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations," NBER Working Papers 5180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-64, May.
    6. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
    7. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "On the Term Structure of Default Premia in the Swap and LIBOR Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 1095-1115, 06.
    8. Anderson, Ronald & Sundaresan, Suresh, 2000. "A comparative study of structural models of corporate bond yields: An exploratory investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 255-269, January.
    9. Mattey, Joe & Wallace, Nancy, 2001. "Housing-Price Cycles and Prepayment Rates of U.S. Mortgage Pools," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 161-84, September.
    10. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert, 1999. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity, and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt96r560pg, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    11. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M., 2004. "Woodhead Behavior and the Pricing of Residential Mortgages," Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy, Working Paper Series qt85q0w8xj, Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy.
    12. Genesove, D. & Mayer, C.J., 1994. "Equity and Time to Sale in the Real Estate Market," Working papers 94-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    13. Singleton, Kenneth J., 1985. "Testing specifications of economic agents' intertemporal optimum problems in the presence of alternative models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 391-413.
    14. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kau, James B, et al, 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
    16. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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