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Determinants of credit spreads and cash flow-related lending in commercial real estate

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  • Haffki, Ricarda
  • Hennig, Kerstin

Abstract

The study examines risk-specific determinants of credit spreads and underwriting practices for non-recourse commercial real estate loans using property and loan characteristics. We use the case of banks that maintain their loans on balance sheets and concentrate on non-recourse financing of large cash flow-generating properties in Europe and North America. The unique dataset includes the bank’s credit loan ratings, used in a 2-stage least square estimation as an instrument for the LTV ratio to address endogeneity bias. Additionally, we use the debt yield premium as a second instrument to validate our results. Our findings demonstrate that default risk and credit spreads depend on potential changes in cash flow and property value, which may deteriorate future underwriting ratios, as well as on measures taken to mitigate this risk. The results indicate that banks effectively adjust the loan’s minimum debt yield ratio to potential negative changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Haffki, Ricarda & Hennig, Kerstin, 2025. "Determinants of credit spreads and cash flow-related lending in commercial real estate," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:74:y:2025:i:c:s0275531924004628
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2024.102669
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Glancy & John R. Krainer & Robert J. Kurtzman & Joseph B. Nichols, 2022. "Intermediary Segmentation in the Commercial Real Estate Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(7), pages 2029-2080, October.
    2. Haffki, Ricarda & Mager, Ferdinand & Hennig, Kerstin, 2023. "Big is beautiful: The impact of bank–borrower relationship and sponsor size on credit spreads and underwriting fees in commercial real estate lending," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. David Glancy & Robert Kurtzman & Lara Loewenstein & Joseph Nichols, 2023. "Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1108-1136, September.
    4. Jonathan D. Jones & William W. Lang & Peter J. Nigro, 2005. "Agent Bank Behavior In Bank Loan Syndications," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 385-402, September.
    5. Grovenstein, Robert A. & Harding, John P. & Sirmans, C.F. & Thebpanya, Sansanee & Turnbull, Geoffrey K., 2005. "Commercial mortgage underwriting: How well do lenders manage the risks?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 355-383, December.
    6. Brian A. Maris & William Segal, 2002. "Analysis of Yield Spreads on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 23(3), pages 235-252.
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    8. Wayne R. Archer & Peter J. Elmer & David M. Harrison & David C. Ling, 2002. "Determinants of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 445-473.
    9. Kau, James B & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1990. "Pricing Commercial Mortgages and Their Mortgage-Backed Securities," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 333-356, December.
    10. Sivitanidou, Rena & Sivitanides, Petros, 1999. "Office Capitalization Rates: Real Estate and Capital Market Influences," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 297-322, May.
    11. Brian Maris & William Segal, 2002. "Analysis of Yield Spreads on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 235-252, January.
    12. Leo Cremer, 2020. "Underwriting Limits and Optimal Leverage in Commercial Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 375-395, April.
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:2:p:345-73 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Prilmeier, Robert, 2017. "Why do loans contain covenants? Evidence from lending relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 558-579.
    15. Sheridan Titman & Stathis Tompaidis & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2005. "Determinants of Credit Spreads in Commercial Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 711-738, December.
    16. Jan deRoos & Crocker Liu & Daniel Quan & Andrey Ukhov, 2014. "The Dynamics of Credit Spreads in Hotel Mortgages and Signaling Implications," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 137-168, January.
    17. Brian A. Ciochetti & Yongheng Deng & Bin Gao & Rui Yao, 2002. "The Termination of Commercial Mortgage Contracts through Prepayment and Default: A Proportional Hazard Approach with Competing Risks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 595-633.
    18. Eichholtz, Piet & Holtermans, Rogier & Kok, Nils & Yönder, Erkan, 2019. "Environmental performance and the cost of debt: Evidence from commercial mortgages and REIT bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 19-32.
    19. Brent Ambrose & Michael Shafer & Yildiray Yildirim, 2018. "The Impact of Tenant Diversification on Spreads and Default Rates for Mortgages on Retail Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, January.
    20. Lamont Black & John Krainer & Joseph Nichols, 2017. "From Origination to Renegotiation: A Comparison of Portfolio and Securitized Commercial Real Estate Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-31, July.
    21. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Stuart Gabriel, 2009. "Value Creation through Securitization: Evidence from the CMBS Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 302-326, April.
    22. Ciochetti, Brian A. & Deng, Yongheng & Lee, Gail & Shilling, James D. & Yao, Rui, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
    23. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A., 2011. "Asymmetric information, adverse selection, and the pricing of CMBS," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 304-325, May.
    24. Jan A. deRoos & Crocker H. Liu, 2014. "The Dynamics of Credit Spreads in Hotel Mortgages and Signaling Implications," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 36(2), pages 137-168.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commercial real estate loans; Non-recourse; Credit spreads; Cash flow-Related lending;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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