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A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias

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  • Ciochetti, Brian A.
  • Deng, Yongheng
  • Lee, Gail
  • Shilling, James D.
  • Yao, Rui

Abstract

A proportional hazards model with competing risks is specified and is extended to correct for the possibility of originator bias. The model is used to examine the ability of option-theoretic models of mortgage pricing to forecast commercial mortgage defaults. Among the findings, those especially of interest include the influence of contemporaneous loan-to-value and debt-service-coverage ratios on commercial mortgage default probabilities. The paper also finds that option-theoretic models of mortgage pricing are quite capable of producing default estimates that fit the actual default rates well, especially when the model is corrected for originator bias. Copyright 2003 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Ciochetti, Brian A. & Deng, Yongheng & Lee, Gail & Shilling, James D. & Yao, Rui, 2003. "A Proportional Hazards Model of Commercial Mortgage Default with Originator Bias," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-23, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:27:y:2003:i:1:p:5-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Gianluca Marcato & Giovanni Alberto Tira, 2009. "Driving Factors in Pricing European CMBS: Bond, Mortgage and Real Estate Characteristics," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2009-04, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    2. Jun Chen & Yongheng Deng, 2013. "Commercial Mortgage Workout Strategy and Conditional Default Probability: Evidence from Special Serviced CMBS Loans," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 609-632, May.
    3. Carlos Pestana Barros & Zhongfei Chen & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2012. "Housing sales in urban Beijing," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4495-4504, December.
    4. Grovenstein, Robert A. & Harding, John P. & Sirmans, C.F. & Thebpanya, Sansanee & Turnbull, Geoffrey K., 2005. "Commercial mortgage underwriting: How well do lenders manage the risks?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 355-383, December.
    5. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Eric Rosenblatt & Vincent Yao, 2012. "Model Stability and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 545-568, October.
    6. Szu-Lang Liao & Ming-Shann Tsai & Shu-Ling Chiang, 2008. "Closed-Form Mortgage Valuation Using Reduced-Form Model," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 313-347, June.
    7. Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 93-111, August.
    8. An, Xudong & Deng, Yongheng & Sanders, Anthony B., 2006. "Subordinations Levels in Structured Financing," Working Paper Series 2006-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    9. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Joseph Nichols & Anthony Sanders, 2013. "Local Traits and Securitized Commercial Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 787-813, November.
    10. Lamont K. Black & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Andrew Cohen & Joseph B. Nichols, 2011. "Differences across originators in CMBS loan underwriting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-05, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Bradford Case, 2003. "Loss characteristics of commercial real estate loan portfolios," Basel II White Paper 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Okechukwu Anyamele, 2015. "Racial/Ethnic Differences in Household Loan Delinquency Rate," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 415-442, December.
    13. James Kau & Donald Keenan & Yildiray Yildirim, 2009. "Estimating Default Probabilities Implicit in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS)," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 107-117, August.
    14. Brent Ambrose & Michael Shafer & Yildiray Yildirim, 2018. "The Impact of Tenant Diversification on Spreads and Default Rates for Mortgages on Retail Properties," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 1-32, January.
    15. Yingjin Hila Gan & Christopher Mayer, 2006. "Agency Conflicts, Asset Substitution, and Securitization," NBER Working Papers 12359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bidisha Chakrabarty & Zhaohui Han & Konstantin Tyurin & Xiaoyong Zheng, 2006. "A Competing Risk Analysis of Executions and Cancellations in a Limit Order Market," Caepr Working Papers 2006-015, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    17. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9548-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Where's the smoking gun? a study of underwriting standards for US subprime mortgages," Working Papers 2008-036, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Driessen, Joost & Van Hemert, Otto, 2012. "Pricing of commercial real estate securities during the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 37-61.
    20. Xudong An & Yongheng Deng & Stuart Gabriel, 2009. "Value Creation through Securitization: Evidence from the CMBS Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 302-326, April.
    21. Jonathan B. Dressler & Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2010. "Survival analysis and mortgage termination at AgChoice ACA," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 21-36, May.
    22. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Sanders, Anthony B., 2006. "Commercial Mortgage-backed Securities (CMBS) Terminations, Regional and Property-Type Risk," Working Paper Series 2006-24, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    23. David Downs & Pisun (Tracy) Xu, 2015. "Commercial Real Estate, Distress and Financial Resolution: Portfolio Lending Versus Securitization," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 254-287, August.
    24. repec:spt:apfiba:v:8:y:2018:i:3:f:8_3_4 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Andrew Felton & Joseph B Nichols, 2012. "Welcome remarks," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Commercial real estate loan performance at failed US banks, volume 64, pages 19-24 Bank for International Settlements.

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