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End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns

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Abstract

I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period’s exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future.

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  • Michael Smolyansky, 2023. "End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-041, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:96643
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.041
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    long-run prediction; stock returns; equity premium; corporate profits; interest rates; corporate taxes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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