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State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Michau, Jean-Baptiste, 2025. "Fiscal policy under secular stagnation: An optimal pump-priming strategy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
  2. Ghomi, Morteza & Pappa, Evi, 2026. "Stimulating Avenues: EIB Loans and Returns to Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 21157, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Search Complementarities, Aggregate Fluctuations, and Fiscal Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(4), pages 2502-2536.
  4. Leonardo Melosi & Francesco Zanetti, 2022. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Working Paper Series WP 2022-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. , & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  6. Adam Hale Shapiro, "undated". "Decomposing Supply and Demand Driven Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2023-03, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Nov 2023.
  7. Fatás, Antonio & Gootjes, Bram & Mawejje, Joseph, 2026. "Dynamic effects of fiscal rules: Do initial conditions Matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  8. Fernández Romero, Daniel, 2025. "The fiscal multiplier in presence of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence for 17 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
  9. Tuan Ho Quoc & Wenyi Shen, 2026. "The business cycle state‐dependent effects of tax news: A joint‐state analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 64(2), pages 702-723, April.
  10. Michele Fratianni & Federico Giri & Riccardo Lucchetti & Francesco Valentini, 2022. "Monetization, wars, and the Italian fiscal multiplier," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 176, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  11. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  12. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
  13. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Mario di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Mr. Giovanni Melina, 2025. "Time-Varying Impacts of Government Spending on CO2 Emissions," IMF Working Papers 2025/132, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
  15. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2024. "Technological Synergies, Heterogeneous Firms, and Idiosyncratic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 18899, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  16. João Tovar Jalles & Donghyun Park & Irfan Qureshi, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
  17. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Stefano Fasani & Mirela Miescu & Lorenza Rossi, 2026. "Nonlinearities With Deanchored Inflation Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 67(3), pages 977-996, August.
  19. Amat Adarov & Clements,Benedict & Jalles,João Tovar, 2024. "Revisiting Public Investment Multipliers : Nonlinear Effects of the Business Cycle, Fiscal Space, Efficiency, and Capital Stock," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10954, The World Bank.
  20. Masashige Hamano & Philip Schnattinger & Mototsugu Shintani & Iichiro Uesugi & Francesco Zanetti, 2025. "Credit Market Tightness and Zombie Firms: Theory and Evidence," Discussion Papers 2504, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  21. Kennedy, Austin, 2025. "Fiscal spillovers through informal financial channels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
  22. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Mandelman, Federico & Yu, Yang & Zanetti, Francesco, 2021. "The “Matthew effect” and market concentration: Search complementarities and monopsony power," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 62-90.
  23. Joel P. Flynn & George Nikolakoudis & Karthik Sastry, 2026. "Pricing and Production Without the Invisible Hand," NBER Working Papers 35390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Duque Gabriel, Ricardo & Klein, Mathias & Nöller, Marvin, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers and political fragmentation," Ruhr Economic Papers 1175, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  25. Mokoena Sipho K., 2025. "Drivers of Changes in Government Expenditure: A Literature Review and Conceptual Framework," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Paradigm, vol. 16(2), pages 19-30.
  26. Garcia, Pablo & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lenarčič, Črt & Lozej, Matija & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2023. "Global models for a global pandemic: The impact of COVID-19 on small euro area economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
  27. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Herrera, Ana María & Kilian, Lutz & Pesavento, Elena, 2024. "State-dependent local projections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
  28. Francesco Zanetti & Federico Mandelman & Yang Yu, 2026. "Immigration, Labor Shortages, and Labor Market Dynamics," CIGS Working Paper Series 26-004E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  29. Xiwen Bai & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory," Economics Series Working Papers 1033, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  30. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Michele Capriati, 2024. "Government spending, multipliers, and public debt sustainability: an empirical assessment for OECD countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 521-542, July.
  31. Forni, Mario & Debortoli, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Sala, Luca, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Easing and Tightening," CEPR Discussion Papers 15005, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  32. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  34. Austin Kennedy, 2025. "Fiscal Spillovers through Informal Financial Channels," Papers 2508.06662, arXiv.org.
  35. Raghuvanshi, Abhay Pratap & Ahmad, Wasim, 2026. "Fragile firms, fierce shocks: The asymmetric firm-level transmission of monetary policy in India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  36. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Oscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  37. Alex Grimaud, 2023. "Unemployment Risk and Discretionary Fiscal Spending," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp335, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  38. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
  39. Charles de Beauffort, 2024. "Looking Beyond the Trap: Fiscal Legacy and Central Bank Independence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(2), pages 385-416, April.
  40. Xiwen Bai & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Yiliang Li & Francesco Zanetti, 2026. "State Dependence of Monetary Policy During Global Supply Chain Disruptions," CAMA Working Papers 2026-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  41. Gulenkov, Ilya, 2025. "Fiscal multipliers, trend inflation, and endogenous price stickiness: Evidence from the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  42. Tayler, William J. & Zilberman, Roy, 2024. "Unconventional policies in state-dependent liquidity traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  43. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2025. "Adaptive Importance Sampling Estimation of an Open Economy Model with Fiscal Policy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS111, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
  44. Marco Amendola & Marcelo C. Pereira, 2026. "Are fiscal multipliers state-dependent? Insights from an agent-based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 1-34, April.
  45. Masataka Eguchi & Hidekazu Niwa & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2024. "Should the Fiscal Authority Avoid Implementation Lag?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(4), pages 856-870, August.
  46. Damián Pierri & Domenico Ferraro, 2024. "Multi-Plant Firms, Variable Capacity Utilization, and the Aggregate Hours Elasticity," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2024-96, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).
  47. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & Gregory Phelan, 2025. "Can Supply Shocks Be Inflationary with a Flat Phillips Curve?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(2), pages 77-145, April.
  48. Clemens, Jeffrey & Hoxie, Philip G. & Veuger, Stan, 2025. "Was pandemic fiscal relief effective fiscal stimulus? Evidence from aid to state and local governments," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  49. Jacques Sapir, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of the New Geopolitical Deal on the French Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 308-319, June.
  50. Guillermo Verduzco-Bustos & Francesco Zanetti, 2026. "The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Price Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2026-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  51. Silva, Mario Rafael & Urias, Marshall, 2025. "Productive demand and sectoral capacity utilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  52. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
  53. Yoon Joo Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2025. "State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 379-413, January.
  54. Hideaki Matsuoka, 2022. "Debt Intolerance: Threshold Level and Composition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(4), pages 894-932, August.
  55. Dennis Bonam & Paul Konietschke, 2020. "Tax multipliers across the business cycle," Working Papers 699, DNB.
  56. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  57. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger, 2020. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1262-1294, December.
  58. Philips, Abiodun S., 2023. "Institutional enforcement of environmental fiscal stance and energy stock markets performance: Evaluating for returns and risk among connected markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
  59. Jalles, João & Beirne, John & Park, Donghyun & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2026. "Public spending, private gains: the gendered impact of exogenous fiscal policy shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  60. William John Tayler & Roy Zilberman, 2019. "Unconventional Policies in State-Contingent Liquidity Traps," Working Papers 257107351, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  61. Adam Hale Shapiro, 2026. "Decomposing Supply‐ and Demand‐Driven Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 365-388, March.
  62. Di Casola, Paola & Grothe, Magdalena, 2026. "Housing wealth and monetary policy transmission: cross-country evidence," Working Paper Series 3204, European Central Bank.
  63. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Conditions [Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
  64. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  65. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
  66. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  67. Paras Sachdeva & Wasim Ahmad & N. R. Bhanumurthy, 2024. "Public expenditure multiplier across business cycle phases in an emerging economy: new empirical evidence and dimension," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 279-299, January.
  68. Glenn Abela & Arianna Antezza & Alissa Gorelova & Gianmarco Meta & Roberta Montebello, 2026. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2165, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  69. Valentin Winkler, 2026. "When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work," Papers 2601.01622, arXiv.org.
  70. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2024. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(6), pages 1342-1372, December.
  71. Jin Seo Cho, 2024. "Estimating and Inferring the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model by Ordinary Least Squares," Working papers 2024rwp-227, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  72. Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2024. "When are tax multipliers large?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  73. Mishel Ghassibe, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks and Non-Linear Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 1449, Barcelona School of Economics.
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