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Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2020. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8168, CESifo.
  2. Chen, Daniel L. & Philippe, Arnaud, 2023. "Clash of norms judicial leniency on defendant birthdays," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 324-344.
  3. Sui, Pengfei & Wang, Baolian, 2025. "Stakes and investor behaviors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
  4. Deshpande Sameer K. & Wyner Abraham, 2017. "A hierarchical Bayesian model of pitch framing," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(3), pages 95-112, September.
  5. Paola Criscuolo & Linus Dahlander & Thorsten Grohsjean & Ammon Salter, 2021. "The Sequence Effect in Panel Decisions: Evidence from the Evaluation of Research and Development Projects," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(4), pages 987-1008, July.
  6. Chen, Daniel L., 2023. "Judicial compliance in district courts," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  7. Alan P. Kwan & S. Alex Yang & Angela Huyue Zhang, 2024. "Crowd-Judging on Two-Sided Platforms: An Analysis of In-Group Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(4), pages 2459-2476, April.
  8. Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2024. "The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 283-321, April.
  9. Chen, Daniel L. & Prescott, J.J., 2016. "Implicit Egoism in Sentencing Decisions: First Letter Name Effects with Randomly Assigned Defendants," IAST Working Papers 16-56, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
  10. Artiga González, Tanja & Calluzzo, Paul & Granic, Georg D., 2023. "Ballot order effects in independent director elections," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  11. Richard Craven, 2023. "Managing dissonance: Bureaucratic justice and public procurement," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 215-233, January.
  12. Jonas Hjort & Diana Moreira & Gautam Rao & Juan Francisco Santini, 2021. "How Research Affects Policy: Experimental Evidence from 2,150 Brazilian Municipalities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1442-1480, May.
  13. Shroff, Ravi & Vamvourellis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Pretrial release judgments and decision fatigue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117579, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Cass R. Sunstein & Lucia A. Reisch, 2025. "In Praise of Computation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(10), pages 2707-2727, October.
  15. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2022. "Simultaneous Decision Making of Juries: Evidence From the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers hal-04104190, HAL.
  16. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
  18. repec:osf:socarx:xdsxg_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Alejandro N√∫nez Arroyo, 2018. "Information seeking with selective memory," Documentos CEDE 17131, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
  20. Bryan C. McCannon, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and strategic uncertainty: Can AI play mixed strategies?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 71(2), pages 139-158, October.
  21. Robert M. Lantis & Erik T. Nesson, 2019. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the ‘Hot Hand’ in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," NBER Working Papers 26510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Rogger, Daniel & Somani, Ravi, 2023. "Hierarchy and Information," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
  23. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  24. Christoph Engel, 2022. "Judicial Decision-Making. A Survey of the Experimental Evidence," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics 2022_06, Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics.
  25. David Lagziel & Ehud Lehrer, 2024. "Performance cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(4), pages 999-1024, June.
  26. Payzan-LeNestour, Elise & Pradier, Lionnel & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2023. "Biased risk perceptions: Evidence from the laboratory and financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  27. Meier, Armando N. & Levav, Jonathan & Meier, Stephan, 2020. "Early Release and Recidivism," IZA Discussion Papers 13035, IZA Network @ LISER.
  28. Trung Nguyen & Aneesh Raghunandan & Alexandra Scherf, 2025. "How Does Judges’ Personal Exposure to Financial Fraud Affect White‐Collar Sentencing?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 63(2), pages 989-1029, May.
  29. Jens Ludwig & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2021. "Fragile Algorithms and Fallible Decision-Makers: Lessons from the Justice System," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(4), pages 71-96, Fall.
  30. Jon Kleinberg & Annie Liang & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2017. "The Theory is Predictive, but is it Complete? An Application to Human Perception of Randomness," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-010, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 09 Aug 2017.
  31. Jackie Silverman & Uri Barnea, 2024. "The Prediction Order Effect: People Are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8541-8555, December.
  32. Gregory DeAngelo & Bryan C. McCannon, 2022. "Behavioral economics and public choice: introduction to a special issue," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 191(3), pages 285-292, June.
  33. Maria R. Ibanez & Michael W. Toffel, 2020. "How Scheduling Can Bias Quality Assessment: Evidence from Food-Safety Inspections," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(6), pages 2396-2416, June.
  34. Claudine Desrieux & Romain Espinosa & Michael Visser, 2024. "Does Exposure to Concurrent Cases Affect Judicial Decisions? Evidence from the Paris Labor Court," Working Papers 2024-09, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  35. Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2021. "Hot Shots: An Analysis of the “Hot Hand†in NBA Field Goal and Free Throw Shooting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(6), pages 639-677, August.
  36. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Gagnon-Bartsch, Tristan & Bushong, Benjamin, 2022. "Learning with misattribution of reference dependence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  38. Jonas Radbruch & Amelie Schiprowski, 2025. "Interview Sequences and the Formation of Subjective Assessments," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(2), pages 1226-1256.
  39. Oliphant, Wesley & Ma, Hong, 2021. "Applying Behavioral Economics to microcredit in China’s rural areas," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
  40. Chen, Daniel L. & Halberstam, Yosh & Yu, Alan, 2016. "Covering: Mutable Characteristics and Perceptions of Voice in the U.S. Supreme Court," TSE Working Papers 16-680, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2020.
  41. Drew Fudenberg & Jon Kleinberg & Annie Liang & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2019. "Measuring the Completeness of Theories," Papers 1910.07022, arXiv.org.
  42. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:6:p:1176-1207 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Katja Bergonzoli & Laurent Bieri & Dominic Rohner & Christian Zehnder, 2024. "Hungry Professors? Decision Biases Are Less Widespread than Previously Thought," Papers 2408.06048, arXiv.org.
  44. Elliott Ash & Michael Poyker, 2024. "Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to the Fox News Channel," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1331-1355.
  45. Brett Green & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2018. "The Hot-Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Major League Baseball," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(11), pages 5315-5348, November.
  46. Sheng Bi & Long He & Chung Piaw Teo, 2023. "Taming the Long Tail: The Gambler’s Fallacy in Intermittent Demand Management," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 1692-1710, September.
  47. Sultan Mehmood & Avner Seror & Daniel L. Chen, 2022. "Religious Rituals: Evidence from Ramadan," Working Papers hal-03899724, HAL.
  48. Kalvin Mudrow, 2026. "Balls and Strikes: The Effects on Domestic Violence," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 52(2), pages 367-390, April.
  49. Marco Giacoletti & Rawley Heimer & Edison Yu, 2026. "Temporal Focal Points and Economic Outcomes Evidence from U.S. Mortgage Lending," Working Papers 26-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  50. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  51. Emil Persson & Kinga Barrafrem & Andreas Meunier & Gustav Tinghög, 2019. "The effect of decision fatigue on surgeons' clinical decision making," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(10), pages 1194-1203, October.
  52. Chen, Daniel L. & Reinhart, Eric, 2016. "The Disavowal of Decisionism: Politically Motivated Exits from the U.S. Courts of Appeals," TSE Working Papers 16-721, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2017.
  53. repec:plo:pone00:0164324 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Chen, Daniel L. & Dunn, Matt & Sagun, Levent & Sirin, Hale, 2017. "Early Predictability of Asylum Court Decisions," TSE Working Papers 17-781, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  55. Yulin Liu & Luyao Zhang, 2022. "Cryptocurrency Valuation: An Explainable AI Approach," Papers 2201.12893, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
  56. Alessandra Foresta1 Rigissa Megalokonomou2 Michael Vlassopoulos3, 2026. "Fiscal Crises and Judicial Enforcement: Evidence from the Greek Supreme Court," Monash Economics Working Papers 2026-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  57. John Considine & John Eakins & Peter Horgan & Conor Weir, 2024. "Compensating Tendencies in Disciplinary Sanctions: The Case of Hurling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(6), pages 659-682, August.
  58. Nicolas Lampach & Arthur Dyevre, 2020. "Choosing for Europe: judicial incentives and legal integration in the European Union," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 65-86, August.
  59. Benjamin Enke & Uri Gneezy & Brian Hall & David Martin & Vadim Nelidov & Theo Offerman & Jeroen van de Ven, 2023. "Cognitive Biases: Mistakes or Missing Stakes?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(4), pages 818-832, July.
  60. Carlos Berdejó & Daniel L. Chen, 2017. "Electoral Cycles among US Courts of Appeals Judges," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 479-496.
  61. Ibrahim Filiz & Thomas Nahmer & Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding, status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 167-205, May.
  62. Qingxia Kong & Georg D. Granic & Nicolas S. Lambert & Chung Piaw Teo, 2020. "Judgment Error in Lottery Play: When the Hot Hand Meets the Gambler’s Fallacy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(2), pages 844-862, February.
  63. Kovic, Marko & Kristiansen, Silje, 2016. "The gambler's fallacy fallacy (fallacy)," SocArXiv xdsxg, Center for Open Science.
  64. repec:osf:osfxxx:hczkj_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Peter Slade & Tor Tolhurst, 2019. "Job Security and Risk‐Taking: Theory and Evidence From Professional Football," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 899-918, January.
  66. James Archsmith & Anthony Heyes & Matthew Neidell & Bhaven Sampat, 2025. "The Dynamics of Inattention in the (Baseball) Field," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(671), pages 2192-2219.
  67. Chen, Daniel L., 2018. "Machine Learning and the Rule of Law," TSE Working Papers 18-975, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  68. Elhorst, Paul & Faems, Dries, 2021. "Evaluating proposals in innovation contests: Exploring negative scoring spillovers in the absence of a strict evaluation sequence," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(4).
  69. James Wang, 2020. "Screening soft information: evidence from loan officers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 1287-1322, December.
  70. Reio Tanji, 2022. "Pitch Call Discrimination in Major League Baseball: The Effect on the Observed Performance and the Salaries," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 22-02, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
  71. Forestra, Alessandra & Megalokonomou, Rigissa & Vlassopoulos, Michael, 2026. "Crisis Narratives and Judicial Enforcement: Evidence from the Greek Fiscal Crisis," IZA Discussion Papers 18489, IZA Network @ LISER.
  72. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  73. Mehmood, Sultan & Seror, Avner & Chen, Daniel L., 2022. "Ramadan Fasting Increases Judicial Leniency in Judges from Pakistan and India," TSE Working Papers 22-1393, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Mar 2023.
  74. Calford, Evan M. & Chakraborty, Anujit, 2025. "The value of and demand for diverse news sources," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 24-41.
  75. Morabito, Leo & Scoppa, Vincenzo, 2024. "Inequity Aversion in Subjective Evaluations: Evidence from Referees' Decisions in Soccer," IZA Discussion Papers 17512, IZA Network @ LISER.
  76. Philippe, Arnaud, 2017. "Does introducing lay people in criminal courts affect judicial decisions? Evidence from French reform," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-15.
  77. Arai, Real & Okazawa, Ryosuke, 2025. "Is it advantageous to be first? Evidence from a TV comedy program," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
  78. Ge Gao & Carlo Perroni & Oleksandr Talavera & Linh Vi, 2026. "Luck in the Marketplace: Auspicious Timing and Financial Decision-Making," Discussion Papers 26-02, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  79. Shinsuke ASAKAWA & Makiko NAKAMURO & Shintaro YAMAGUCHI, 2026. "Does Order Distort Evaluation? Evidence from observational data and field experiment in a large-scale piano competition (Japanese)," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 26010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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  81. Sultan Mehmood & Bakhtawar Ali, 2024. "Judicial Capture," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(659), pages 1287-1301.
  82. Thomas W. Graeber & Benjamin Enke, 2026. "Comparisons," CESifo Working Paper Series 12924, CESifo.
  83. He, Kevin, 2022. "Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal-stopping problems," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 17(3), July.
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  87. Duc Duy Nguyen & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi & Vathunyoo Sila, 2022. "Climate Change Risk and the Cost of Mortgage Credit [Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1509-1549.
  88. Eric Fesselmeyer, 2021. "The impact of temperature on labor quality: Umpire accuracy in Major League Baseball," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 545-567, October.
  89. Alessandra Foresta & Rigissa Megalokonomou & Michael Vlassopoulos, 2026. "Crisis Narratives and Judicial Enforcement: Evidence from the Greek Fiscal Crisis," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26088, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
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