IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agy/dpaper/202002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bandit with similarity information

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin Radoc

    (Philippine Competition Commission and Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University)

Abstract

In problem situations, it is unlikely that a decision maker possesses knowledge on all states of the world so that use of information gathered from past similar experience is plausible. This analogical thinking is formalised by case-based decision theory (CBDT) which suggests that under uncertainty, a decision maker acts based on her memory of past actions and the associated outcomes in past similar situations. A unique experimental setting that makes similarity information in the problem situation salient was created, while providing a fair chance for either Bayesian or case-based decisions to emerge. Consider a two-armed bandit with similarity information. If the similarity cue offers irrelevant information on the payoff distribution of the two arms, it is easy for a Bayesian decision maker to ignore the cue and recognise that the distribution of payoffs of the two arms are identical. But if the similarity cue triggers a decision maker to perceive the two arms as separate, there are two possibilities: (i) more frequent positive payoffs on one arm may be used to put a higher valuation on a similar arm consistent with the prediction of CBDT, or (ii) given past positive payoffs on one arm, the other arm may be valued lower if the subsequent likelihood of success is perceived as lower. The experiment results suggest that although participants in general correctly updated their expectation of a positive payoff based on past experience, the pattern in the decisions shows that participants systematically used the irrelevant similarity cue in a manner that cannot be explained by CBDT but consistent with the gambler’s fallacy or the biased belief that the pattern of past outcomes will reverse.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Radoc, 2020. "Bandit with similarity information," Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University, Working Paper Series 202002, Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University.
  • Handle: RePEc:agy:dpaper:202002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ateneo.edu/sites/default/files/2022-06/ADMU%20WP%202020-02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benjamin Radoc & Robert Sugden & Theodore L. Turocy, 2019. "Correlation neglect and case-based decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 23-49, August.
    2. Andrea Isoni & Graham Loomes & Robert Sugden, 2011. "The Willingness to Pay—Willingness to Accept Gap, the "Endowment Effect," Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 991-1011, April.
    3. Wolfgang Ossadnik & Dirk Wilmsmann & Benedikt Niemann, 2013. "Experimental evidence on case-based decision theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 211-232, August.
    4. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 1995. "Case-Based Decision Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 605-639.
    5. Zhao, Jinhua & Kling, Catherine L., 2001. "A new explanation for the WTP/WTA disparity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 293-300, December.
    6. Gilboa,Itzhak & Schmeidler,David, 2001. "A Theory of Case-Based Decisions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802345.
    7. Brit Grosskopf & Rajiv Sarin & Elizabeth Watson, 2015. "An experiment on case-based decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 639-666, December.
    8. Sugden, Robert, 2003. "Reference-dependent subjective expected utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 172-191, August.
    9. Matsui, Akihiko, 2000. "Expected utility and case-based reasoning," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 1-12, January.
    10. Han Bleichrodt & Martin Filko & Amit Kothiyal & Peter P. Wakker, 2017. "Making Case-Based Decision Theory Directly Observable," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 123-151, February.
    11. Daniel L. Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1181-1242.
    12. repec:cup:judgdm:v:5:y:2010:i:2:p:124-132 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chen, Daniel L. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Shue, Kelly, 2016. "Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," IAST Working Papers 16-43, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    14. Charles R. Plott & Kathryn Zeiler, 2005. "The Willingness to Pay–Willingness to Accept Gap, the "Endowment Effect," Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 530-545, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Todd Guilfoos & Andreas Duus Pape, 2020. "Estimating Case-Based Learning," Games, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Ilke Aydogan & Yu Gao, 2020. "Experience and rationality under risk: re-examining the impact of sampling experience," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 23(4), pages 1100-1128, December.
    3. Benjamin Radoc & Robert Sugden & Theodore L. Turocy, 2019. "Correlation neglect and case-based decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 23-49, August.
    4. Han Bleichrodt & Martin Filko & Amit Kothiyal & Peter P. Wakker, 2017. "Making Case-Based Decision Theory Directly Observable," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 123-151, February.
    5. Brit Grosskopf & Rajiv Sarin & Elizabeth Watson, 2015. "An experiment on case-based decision making," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 79(4), pages 639-666, December.
    6. Gilboa, Itzhak & Samuelson, Larry & Schmeidler, David, 2013. "Dynamics of inductive inference in a unified framework," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1399-1432.
    7. Marek Kapera, 2022. "Learning own preferences through consumption," KAE Working Papers 2022-074, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    8. Smith, Alec, 2019. "Lagged beliefs and reference-dependent utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 331-340.
    9. Kogler, Christoph & Kühberger, Anton & Gilhofer, Rainer, 2013. "Real and hypothetical endowment effects when exchanging lottery tickets: Is regret a better explanation than loss aversion?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 42-53.
    10. Todd Guilfoos & Andreas Pape, 2016. "Predicting human cooperation in the Prisoner’s Dilemma using case-based decision theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 80(1), pages 1-32, January.
    11. Christina McGranaghan & Steven G. Otto, 2022. "Choice uncertainty and the endowment effect," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 83-104, August.
    12. Cho, In-Koo & Matsui, Akihiko, 2005. "Learning aspiration in repeated games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 171-201, October.
    13. Oben K. Bayrak & John D. Hey, 2017. "Expected utility theory with imprecise probability perception: explaining preference reversals," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(13), pages 906-910, July.
    14. Breffle, William S. & Eiswerth, Mark E. & Muralidharan, Daya & Thornton, Jeffrey, 2015. "Understanding how income influences willingness to pay for joint programs: A more equitable value measure for the less wealthy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 17-25.
    15. Wolfgang Ossadnik & Dirk Wilmsmann & Benedikt Niemann, 2013. "Experimental evidence on case-based decision theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 75(2), pages 211-232, August.
    16. Lindsay, Luke, 2019. "Adaptive loss aversion and market experience," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 43-61.
    17. Roxane Bricet, 2018. "Precise versus imprecise datasets: revisiting ambiguity attitudes in the Ellsberg paradox," THEMA Working Papers 2018-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    18. Steven J. Humphrey & Luke Lindsay & Chris Starmer, 2017. "Consumption experience, choice experience and the endowment effect," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 3(2), pages 109-120, December.
    19. Chen, Daniel L. & Philippe, Arnaud, 2023. "Clash of norms judicial leniency on defendant birthdays," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 324-344.
    20. Simon Gächter & Eric J. Johnson & Andreas Herrmann, 2022. "Individual-level loss aversion in riskless and risky choices," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 599-624, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian reasoning; case-based decisions; gambler's fallacy; expectation; similarity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agy:dpaper:202002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jat Tancangco (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deadmph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.