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Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

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  1. Ren, Jinfu & Liu, Yang & Liu, Jiming, 2023. "Chaotic behavior learning via information tracking," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
  2. Johannes Emmerling, 2018. "Sharing Of Climate Risks Across World Regions," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(03), pages 1-19, August.
  3. Zhang, Zhao & Jin, Wen & Jiang, Hai & Xie, Qianyan & Shen, Wei & Han, Weijian, 2017. "Modeling heterogeneous vehicle ownership in China: A case study based on the Chinese national survey," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-20.
  4. Nigel W. Arnell & Emma L. Tompkins & W. Neil Adger, 2005. "Eliciting Information from Experts on the Likelihood of Rapid Climate Change," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1419-1431, December.
  5. Lu, Shibao & Bai, Xiao & Li, Wei & Wang, Ning, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and grain production," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 76-84.
  6. Harrison, Matthew T. & Cullen, Brendan R. & Rawnsley, Richard P., 2016. "Modelling the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and extreme climatic events," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 135-148.
  7. Walter Leal Filho & Robert Stojanov & Franziska Wolf & Newton R. Matandirotya & Christian Ploberger & Desalegn Y. Ayal & Fardous Mohammad Safiul Azam & Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal & Rebecca Sarku & No, 2022. "Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation and Land Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
  8. JL Bamber & WP Aspinall & RM Cooke, 2016. "A commentary on “how to interpret expert judgment assessments of twenty-first century sea-level rise” by Hylke de Vries and Roderik SW van de Wal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 321-328, August.
  9. Lopes, Francis M. & Conceição, Ricardo & Silva, Hugo G. & Salgado, Rui & Collares-Pereira, Manuel, 2021. "Improved ECMWF forecasts of direct normal irradiance: A tool for better operational strategies in concentrating solar power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 755-771.
  10. Bergen, Matías & Muñoz, Francisco D., 2018. "Quantifying the effects of uncertain climate and environmental policies on investments and carbon emissions: A case study of Chile," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 261-273.
  11. Valeria Montalto & Brian Helmuth & Paolo M Ruti & Alessandro Dell’Aquila & Alessandro Rinaldi & Gianluca Sarà, 2016. "A mechanistic approach reveals non linear effects of climate warming on mussels throughout the Mediterranean sea," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 293-306, November.
  12. Detlef Vuuren & Jason Lowe & Elke Stehfest & Laila Gohar & Andries Hof & Chris Hope & Rachel Warren & Malte Meinshausen & Gian-Kasper Plattner, 2011. "How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(2), pages 255-285, January.
  13. Bryant, Benjamin P. & Borsuk, Mark E. & Hamel, Perrine & Oleson, Kirsten L.L. & Schulp, C.J.E. & Willcock, Simon, 2018. "Transparent and feasible uncertainty assessment adds value to applied ecosystem services modeling," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 33(PB), pages 103-109.
  14. Socrates Kypreos, 2008. "Stabilizing global temperature change below thresholds: Monte Carlo analyses with MERGE," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 141-170, February.
  15. Joseph Daron & Ian Macadam & Hideki Kanamaru & Thelma Cinco & Jack Katzfey & Claire Scannell & Richard Jones & Marcelino Villafuerte & Faye Cruz & Gemma Narisma & Rafaela Jane Delfino & Rodel Lasco & , 2018. "Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 187-203, May.
  16. Roger Cooke & Bruce A. Wielicki & David F. Young & Martin G. Mlynczak, 2014. "Value of information for climate observing systems," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 98-109, March.
  17. Jürgen Scheffran, 2008. "Adaptive management of energy transitions in long-term climate change," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 259-286, May.
  18. Wang, Ning & Shen, Ruifang & Wen, Zongguo & De Clercq, Djavan, 2019. "Life cycle energy efficiency evaluation for coal development and utilization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 1-11.
  19. Jianting Zhu & William Forsee & Rina Schumer & Mahesh Gautam, 2013. "Future projections and uncertainty assessment of extreme rainfall intensity in the United States from an ensemble of climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 469-485, May.
  20. Simon Gosling & Glenn McGregor & Jason Lowe, 2012. "The benefits of quantifying climate model uncertainty in climate change impacts assessment: an example with heat-related mortality change estimates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 217-231, May.
  21. Calum Brown & Evan Brown & Dave Murray-Rust & George Cojocaru & Cristina Savin & Mark Rounsevell, 2015. "Analysing uncertainties in climate change impact assessment across sectors and scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 293-306, February.
  22. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
  23. Donghyun Kim & Junbeom Lee, 2016. "Development of a Web-Based Tool for Climate Change Risk Assessment in the Business Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-22, October.
  24. Yang, Jiachuan & Wang, Zhi-Hua & Kaloush, Kamil E., 2015. "Environmental impacts of reflective materials: Is high albedo a ‘silver bullet’ for mitigating urban heat island?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 830-843.
  25. Rick Baker & Andrew Barker & Alan Johnston & Michael Kohlhaas, 2008. "The Stern Review: an assessment of its methodology," Staff Working Papers 0801, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
  26. BRECHET, Thierry & THENIE, Julien & ZEIMES, Thibaut & ZUBER, Stéphane, 2010. "The benefits of cooperation under uncertainty: the case of climate change," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2010062, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  27. Getachew Tegegne & Assefa M. Melesse, 2020. "Multimodel Ensemble Projection of Hydro-climatic Extremes for Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 3019-3035, July.
  28. Wu, Huijun & Zeng, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Ling & Liu, Xin & Jiang, Songyan & Dong, Zhanfeng & Meng, Xiangrui & Wang, Qianqian, 2023. "Water-energy nexus embedded in coal supply chain of a coal-based city, China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
  29. Soheil Shayegh & Valerie Thomas, 2015. "Adaptive stochastic integrated assessment modeling of optimal greenhouse gas emission reductions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-15, January.
  30. A. Kay & R. Jones, 2012. "Comparison of the use of alternative UKCP09 products for modelling the impacts of climate change on flood frequency," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 211-230, September.
  31. Johannes Emmerling & Massimo Tavoni, 2018. "Climate Engineering and Abatement: A ‘flat’ Relationship Under Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(2), pages 395-415, February.
  32. Wei, Yi-Ming & Mi, Zhi-Fu & Huang, Zhimin, 2015. "Climate policy modeling: An online SCI-E and SSCI based literature review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 57(PA), pages 70-84.
  33. Veronica Villani & Elvira Romano & Giuliana Barbato & Paola Mercogliano, 2021. "Selecting and correcting RCM models ensemble: a case study for the evaluation of thermal discomfort for the city of Prato," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1541-1557, June.
  34. Hu, Xinyu & Zhao, Jinfeng & Sun, Shikun & Jia, Chengru & Zhang, Fuyao & Ma, Yizhe & Wang, Kaixuan & Wang, Yubao, 2023. "Evaluation of the temporal reconstruction methods for MODIS-based continuous daily actual evapotranspiration estimation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
  35. Ana Lopez & Emma Suckling & Leonard Smith, 2014. "Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 555-566, February.
  36. Salvador Pueyo, 2012. "Solution to the paradox of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 163-179, July.
  37. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
  38. Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
  39. Hans Storch & Francis Zwiers, 2013. "Testing ensembles of climate change scenarios for “statistical significance”," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(1), pages 1-9, March.
  40. Animesh Gain & Heiko Apel & Fabrice Renaud & Carlo Giupponi, 2013. "Thresholds of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact—the case of the Lower Brahmaputra river Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 463-475, September.
  41. Anna Życzyńska & Zbigniew Suchorab & Dariusz Majerek & Violeta Motuzienė, 2022. "Statistical Analysis of the Variability of Energy Efficiency Indicators for a Multi-Family Residential Building," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
  42. Y. Ghile & M. Taner & C. Brown & J. Grijsen & Amal Talbi, 2014. "Bottom-up climate risk assessment of infrastructure investment in the Niger River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 97-110, January.
  43. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Li & Liu, Xueyang & Ding, Qianqiao & Qin, Zhuomin & ÄŒepin, Marko, 2021. "Analysis of dependencies among performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis based on a system dynamics approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
  44. A. Kay & H. Davies & V. Bell & R. Jones, 2009. "Comparison of uncertainty sources for climate change impacts: flood frequency in England," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(1), pages 41-63, January.
  45. Zhang, Bingquan & Xu, Jialu & Lin, Zhixian & Lin, Tao & Faaij, André P.C., 2021. "Spatially explicit analyses of sustainable agricultural residue potential for bioenergy in China under various soil and land management scenarios," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
  46. Saskia Pelt & Rob Swart, 2011. "Climate Change Risk Management in Transnational River Basins: The Rhine," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3837-3861, November.
  47. Rivington, M. & Matthews, K.B. & Buchan, K. & Miller, D.G. & Bellocchi, G. & Russell, G., 2013. "Climate change impacts and adaptation scope for agriculture indicated by agro-meteorological metrics," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 15-31.
  48. Sean M Moore & Andrew Monaghan & Kevin S Griffith & Titus Apangu & Paul S Mead & Rebecca J Eisen, 2012. "Improvement of Disease Prediction and Modeling through the Use of Meteorological Ensembles: Human Plague in Uganda," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(9), pages 1-11, September.
  49. H. Hanlon & G. Hegerl & S. Tett & D. Smith, 2015. "Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 61-76, September.
  50. Simon Gosling & Jason Lowe & Glenn McGregor & Mark Pelling & Bruce Malamud, 2009. "Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 299-341, February.
  51. Kwang-Hyung Kim & Jaepil Cho, 2016. "Predicting potential epidemics of rice diseases in Korea using multi-model ensembles for assessment of climate change impacts with uncertainty information," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 327-339, January.
  52. Samuel Jovan Okullo, 2020. "Determining the Social Cost of Carbon: Under Damage and Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 75(1), pages 79-103, January.
  53. Frigg, Roman & Smith, Leonard A. & Stainforth, David A., 2015. "An assessment of the foundational assumptions inhigh-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61635, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  54. baptiste perrissin fabert & Etienne Espagne & Antonin Pottier & Franck Nadaus, 2012. "Disentangling the Stern/Nordhaus controversy. Why and how do beliefs and modelling choices matter?," EcoMod2012 4270, EcoMod.
  55. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
  56. Daniel Wallach & Linda O. Mearns & Alex C. Ruane & Reimund P. Rötter & Senthold Asseng, 2016. "Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 551-564, December.
  57. Tulkens, Philippe & Tulkens, Henry, 2006. "The White House and the Kyoto Protocol: Double Standards on Uncertainties and Their Consequences," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12063, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
  58. Maria Chara Karypidou & Vasiliki Almpanidou & Adrian M. Tompkins & Antonios D. Mazaris & Sandra Gewehr & Spiros Mourelatos & Eleni Katragkou, 2020. "Projected shifts in the distribution of malaria vectors due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2117-2133, December.
  59. Vafadarnikjoo, Amin & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Botelho, Tiago & Bamford, David, 2023. "A stratified decision-making model for long-term planning: Application in flood risk management in Scotland," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  60. Wilhelm May, 2012. "Assessing the strength of regional changes in near-surface climate associated with a global warming of 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 619-644, February.
  61. Benjamin Sanderson, 2013. "On the estimation of systematic error in regression-based predictions of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 757-770, June.
  62. Reidsma, Pytrik & Bakker, Martha M. & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Alam, Shah J. & Paas, Wim & Kros, Johannes & de Vries, Wim, 2015. "Sustainable agricultural development in a rural area in the Netherlands? Assessing impacts of climate and socio-economic change at farm and landscape level," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 160-173.
  63. A. Lopez & E. Suckling & F. Otto & A. Lorenz & D. Rowlands & M. Allen, 2015. "Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 15-29, September.
  64. Luciana L Porfirio & Rebecca M B Harris & Edward C Lefroy & Sonia Hugh & Susan F Gould & Greg Lee & Nathaniel L Bindoff & Brendan Mackey, 2014. "Improving the Use of Species Distribution Models in Conservation Planning and Management under Climate Change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-21, November.
  65. Ralph Ledbetter & Christel Prudhomme & Nigel Arnell, 2012. "A method for incorporating climate variability in climate change impact assessments: Sensitivity of river flows in the Eden catchment to precipitation scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 803-823, August.
  66. Ludovic Gaudard & Jeannette Gabbi & Andreas Bauder & Franco Romerio, 2016. "Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1325-1343, March.
  67. Isaac Kwesi Nooni & Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan & Waheed Ullah & Jiao Lu & Shijie Li & Nana Agyemang Prempeh & Gnim Tchalim Gnitou & Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian, 2022. "Projections of Drought Characteristics Based on the CNRM-CM6 Model over Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, March.
  68. An, Li & Grimm, Volker & Sullivan, Abigail & Turner II, B.L. & Malleson, Nicolas & Heppenstall, Alison & Vincenot, Christian & Robinson, Derek & Ye, Xinyue & Liu, Jianguo & Lindkvist, Emilie & Tang, W, 2021. "Challenges, tasks, and opportunities in modeling agent-based complex systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
  69. Polash Banerjee, 2022. "MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing-based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 899-935, January.
  70. Tina Fawcett, 2004. "Carbon Rationing and Personal Energy Use," Energy & Environment, , vol. 15(6), pages 1067-1083, November.
  71. Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.
  72. Liao, Zhirong & Li, Xin & Xu, Chao & Chang, Chun & Wang, Zhifeng, 2014. "Allowable flux density on a solar central receiver," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 747-753.
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