IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v5y2013i5p2129-2151d25627.html

The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew J. Wiltshire

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Gillian Kay

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Jemma L. Gornall

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

  • Richard A. Betts

    (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK)

Abstract

Population growth and climate change are likely to impact upon food and water availability over the coming decades. In this study we use an ensemble of climate simulations to project the implications of both these drivers on regional changes in food and water. This study highlights the dominant effect of population growth on per capita resource allocation over climate induced changes in our model projections. We find a strong signal for crop yield reductions due to climate change by the 2050s in the absence of CO 2 fertilisation effects. However, when these additional processes are included this trend is reversed. The impacts of climate on water resources are more uncertain. Overall, we find reductions in the global population living in water stressed conditions due to the combined effects of climate and CO 2 . Africa is a key region where projected decreases in runoff and crop productivity from climate change alone are potentially reversed when CO 2 fertilisation effects are included, but this is highly uncertain. Plant physiological response to increasing atmospheric CO 2 is a major driver of the changes in crop productivity and water availability in this study; it is poorly constrained by observations and is thus a critical uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew J. Wiltshire & Gillian Kay & Jemma L. Gornall & Richard A. Betts, 2013. "The Impact of Climate, CO 2 and Population on Regional Food and Water Resources in the 2050s," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 5(5), pages 1-23, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2013:i:5:p:2129-2151:d:25627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/5/5/2129/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/5/5/2129/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Md. Islam & Taikan Oki & Shinjiro Kanae & Naota Hanasaki & Yasushi Agata & Kei Yoshimura, 2007. "A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 19-33, January.
    2. S. Sitch & P. M. Cox & W. J. Collins & C. Huntingford, 2007. "Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink," Nature, Nature, vol. 448(7155), pages 791-794, August.
    3. Molden, David & Oweis, Theib & Steduto, Pasquale & Bindraban, Prem & Hanjra, Munir A. & Kijne, Jacob, 2010. "Improving agricultural water productivity: Between optimism and caution," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 97(4), pages 528-535, April.
    4. repec:iwt:bosers:h040200 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:iwt:bosers:h040193 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. J. Pongratz & D. B. Lobell & L. Cao & K. Caldeira, 2012. "Crop yields in a geoengineered climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(2), pages 101-105, February.
    7. repec:iwt:bosers:h041260 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    9. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
    10. Wolfgang Lutz & Warren Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov, 2008. "The coming acceleration of global population ageing," Nature, Nature, vol. 451(7179), pages 716-719, February.
    11. Marc L. Imhoff & Lahouari Bounoua & Taylor Ricketts & Colby Loucks & Robert Harriss & William T. Lawrence, 2004. "Global patterns in human consumption of net primary production," Nature, Nature, vol. 429(6994), pages 870-873, June.
    12. repec:iwt:bosers:h039769 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark J. Hovenden & Paul C. D. Newton, 2018. "Variability in precipitation seasonality limits grassland biomass responses to rising CO2: historical and projected climate analyses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 219-231, July.
    2. Mekonnen, Dawit & Abate, Gashaw & Yimam, Seid, 2021. "Irrigation and Agricultural Transformation in Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315339, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Zhihui Li & Xiangzheng Deng & Feng Wu & Shaikh Shamim Hasan, 2015. "Scenario Analysis for Water Resources in Response to Land Use Change in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-23, March.
    4. Dae-Ho Jung & Jung-Eek Son, 2021. "CO 2 Utilization Strategy for Sustainable Cultivation of Mushrooms and Lettuces," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-11, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lankford, B. & Makin, Ian & Matthews, N. & McCornick, Peter G. & Noble, A. & Shah, Tushaar, "undated". "A compact to revitalise large-scale irrigation systems using a leadership-partnership-ownership 'Theory of Change'," Papers published in Journals (Open Access) H047459, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Liu, Jing & Hertel, Thomas & Lammers, Richard & Prusevich, Alexander & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Grogan, Danielle & Frolking, Steve, 2016. "Achieving Sustainable Irrigation Water Withdrawals: Global Impacts on Food Production and Land Use," Conference papers 332691, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Hanjra, Munir A. & Qureshi, M. Ejaz, 2010. "Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 365-377, October.
    4. Han, Xinxueqi & Hua, En & Cao, Xinchun & Engel, Bernie A. & Sun, Shikun & Wang, Yubao, 2026. "Deciphering water-energy-food synergies through a multi-level symbiosis framework: Insights from the Yellow River Basin," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    5. Karimov, Akmal Kh. & Šimůnek, Jirka & Hanjra, Munir A. & Avliyakulov, Mirzaolim & Forkutsa, Irina, 2014. "Effects of the shallow water table on water use of winter wheat and ecosystem health: Implications for unlocking the potential of groundwater in the Fergana Valley (Central Asia)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 57-69.
    6. Yu, Liuyang & Zhao, Xining & Gao, Xiaodong & Siddique, Kadambot H.M., 2020. "Improving/maintaining water-use efficiency and yield of wheat by deficit irrigation: A global meta-analysis," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    7. Shen, Hongzheng & Wang, Yue & Jiang, Kongtao & Li, Shilei & Huang, Donghua & Wu, Jiujiang & Wang, Yongqiang & Wang, Yangren & Ma, Xiaoyi, 2022. "Simulation modeling for effective management of irrigation water for winter wheat," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    8. Becker, Rike & Schüth, Christoph & Merz, Ralf & Khaliq, Tasneem & Usman, Muhammad & Beek, Tim aus der & Kumar, Rohini & Schulz, Stephan, 2023. "Increased heat stress reduces future yields of three major crops in Pakistan’s Punjab region despite intensification of irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 281(C).
    9. Ejaz Qureshi, M. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Ward, John, 2013. "Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 136-145.
    10. Khalil, Hamidreza Mirzaei & Esfandiari, Mahdi & Shahraki, Javad & Yaghoubi, Morteza, . "Assessment of Water Use Efficiency Indices in Selected Plains of Fars Province, Iran," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 6(2).
    11. Xiaoxia Zou & Yu-e Li & Qingzhu Gao & Yunfan Wan, 2012. "How water saving irrigation contributes to climate change resilience—a case study of practices in China," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 111-132, February.
    12. Saloua Rochdane & Lahouari Bounoua & Ping Zhang & Marc L. Imhoff & Mohammed Messouli & Mohammed Yacoubi-Khebiza, 2014. "Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess Vulnerability to Climate Change and Its Impact on Food Security in Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Zhang, Wang & Tian, Yong & Sun, Zan & Zheng, Chunmiao, 2021. "How does plastic film mulching affect crop water productivity in an arid river basin?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    14. Matteau, Jean-Pascal & Célicourt, Paul & Létourneau, Guillaume & Gumiere, Thiago & Gumiere, Silvio J., 2022. "Effects of irrigation thresholds and temporal distribution on potato yield and water productivity in sandy soil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    15. Chimonyo, V.G.P. & Modi, A.T. & Mabhaudhi, T., 2016. "Water use and productivity of a sorghum–cowpea–bottle gourd intercrop system," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 82-96.
    16. Elizabeth T Cafiero-Fonseca & Andrew Stawasz & Sydney T Johnson & Reiko Sato & David E Bloom, 2017. "The full benefits of adult pneumococcal vaccination: A systematic review," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, October.
    17. Alvar-Beltrán, Jorge & Saturnin, Coulibaly & Grégoire, Baki & Camacho, Jose Luís & Dao, Abdalla & Migraine, Jean Baptiste & Marta, Anna Dalla, 2023. "Using AquaCrop as a decision-support tool for improved irrigation management in the Sahel region," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    18. Ren, Dongyang & Xu, Xu & Engel, Bernard & Huang, Quanzhong & Xiong, Yunwu & Huo, Zailin & Huang, Guanhua, 2021. "A comprehensive analysis of water productivity in natural vegetation and various crops coexistent agro-ecosystems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    19. Ren, Jinfu & Liu, Yang & Liu, Jiming, 2023. "Chaotic behavior learning via information tracking," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    20. Yun-Sook Jung & Taejun Park & Eun-Kyong Kim & Seong-Hwa Jeong & Young-Eun Lee & Min-Jeong Cho & Keun-Bae Song & Youn-Hee Choi, 2022. "Influence of Chewing Ability on Elderly Adults’ Cognitive Functioning: The Mediating Effects of the Ability to Perform Daily Life Activities and Nutritional Status," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-11, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:5:y:2013:i:5:p:2129-2151:d:25627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.