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Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Daron

    (Met Office)

  • Ian Macadam

    (Met Office)

  • Hideki Kanamaru

    (FAO)

  • Thelma Cinco

    (PAGASA)

  • Jack Katzfey

    (CSIRO)

  • Claire Scannell

    (Met Office)

  • Richard Jones

    (Met Office)

  • Marcelino Villafuerte

    (PAGASA)

  • Faye Cruz

    (Manila Observatory)

  • Gemma Narisma

    (Manila Observatory
    Ateneo de Manila University)

  • Rafaela Jane Delfino

    (Oscar M. Lopez Center)

  • Rodel Lasco

    (Oscar M. Lopez Center)

  • John Manalo

    (PAGASA)

  • Emma Ares

    (PAGASA)

  • Ana Liza Solis

    (PAGASA)

  • Rosalina Guzman

    (PAGASA)

  • Joseph Basconcillo

    (PAGASA
    Jeju National University)

  • Fredolin Tangang

    (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia)

Abstract

To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Daron & Ian Macadam & Hideki Kanamaru & Thelma Cinco & Jack Katzfey & Claire Scannell & Richard Jones & Marcelino Villafuerte & Faye Cruz & Gemma Narisma & Rafaela Jane Delfino & Rodel Lasco & , 2018. "Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 187-203, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2183-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2183-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Hewitt & Simon Mason & David Walland, 2012. "The Global Framework for Climate Services," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 831-832, December.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. B. Hewitson & J. Daron & R. Crane & M. Zermoglio & C. Jack, 2014. "Interrogating empirical-statistical downscaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 539-554, February.
    4. Penny Whetton & Kevin Hennessy & John Clarke & Kathleen McInnes & David Kent, 2012. "Use of Representative Climate Futures in impact and adaptation assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 433-442, December.
    5. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bazrkar, Mohammad Hadi & Danquah, Eric Owusu & Choi, Soon-Kun & Kim, Min-Kyeong & Jeong, Jaehak & Cho, Jaepil, 2023. "Projected unseasonable and shorter actual growth period for paddy rice and more pollutant loads into water bodies in a changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).

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