IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v134y2016i3d10.1007_s10584-015-1509-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J. Osborn

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Craig J. Wallace

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Ian C. Harris

    (University of East Anglia)

  • Thomas M. Melvin

    (University of East Anglia)

Abstract

Development, testing and example applications of the pattern-scaling approach for generating future climate change projections are reported here, with a focus on a particular software application called “ClimGen”. A number of innovations have been implemented, including using exponential and logistic functions of global-mean temperature to represent changes in local precipitation and cloud cover, and interpolation from climate model grids to a finer grid while taking into account land-sea contrasts in the climate change patterns. Of particular significance is a new approach for incorporating changes in the inter-annual variability of monthly precipitation simulated by climate models. This is achieved by diagnosing simulated changes in the shape of the gamma distribution of monthly precipitation totals, applying the pattern-scaling approach to estimate changes in the shape parameter under a future scenario, and then perturbing sequences of observed precipitation anomalies so that their distribution changes according to the projected change in the shape parameter. The approach cannot represent changes to the structure of climate timeseries (e.g. changed autocorrelation or teleconnection patterns) were they to occur, but is shown here to be more successful at representing changes in low precipitation extremes than previous pattern-scaling methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Osborn & Craig J. Wallace & Ian C. Harris & Thomas M. Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1509-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-015-1509-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & S. Brown & S. N. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & B. Lloyd-Hughes & R. J. Nicholls & T. J. Osborn & T. M. Osborne & G. A. Rose & P. Smith & R. F. Warren, 2013. "A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(5), pages 512-519, May.
    2. Claudia Tebaldi & Julie Arblaster, 2014. "Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 459-471, February.
    3. James M. Murphy & David M. H. Sexton & David N. Barnett & Gareth S. Jones & Mark J. Webb & Matthew Collins & David A. Stainforth, 2004. "Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations," Nature, Nature, vol. 430(7001), pages 768-772, August.
    4. Yasuhiro Ishizaki & Hideo Shiogama & Seita Emori & Tokuta Yokohata & Toru Nozawa & Tomoo Ogura & Manabu Abe & Masakazu Yoshimori & Kiyoshi Takahashi, 2012. "Temperature scaling pattern dependence on representative concentration pathway emission scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 535-546, May.
    5. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    6. R. Warren & J. Lowe & N. Arnell & C. Hope & P. Berry & S. Brown & A. Gambhir & S. Gosling & R. Nicholls & J. O’Hanley & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & J. Price & S. Raper & G. Rose & J. Vanderwal, 2013. "The AVOID programme’s new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 55-70, September.
    7. Ana Lopez & Emma Suckling & Leonard Smith, 2014. "Robustness of pattern scaled climate change scenarios for adaptation decision support," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 555-566, February.
    8. Peter Guttorp & Stephan R. Sain & Christopher K. Wikle & David B. Stephenson & Matthew Collins & Jonathan C. Rougier & Richard E. Chandler, 2012. "Statistical problems in the probabilistic prediction of climate change," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 364-372, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    2. N. W. Arnell & J. A. Lowe & A. J. Challinor & T. J. Osborn, 2019. "Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 377-391, August.
    3. Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Craig Wallace & Rhosanna Jenkins & Timothy J. Osborn & D. P. Vuuren, 2022. "Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.
    4. Nigel W. Arnell & Jason A. Lowe & Ben Lloyd-Hughes & Timothy J. Osborn, 2018. "The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 61-76, March.
    5. R. Warren & J. Price & J. VanDerWal & S. Cornelius & H. Sohl, 2018. "The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(3), pages 395-409, April.
    6. Rachel Warren & Oliver Andrews & Sally Brown & Felipe J. Colón-González & Nicole Forstenhäusler & David E. H. J. Gernaat & P. Goodwin & Ian Harris & Yi He & Chris Hope & Desmond Manful & Timothy J. Os, 2022. "Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Yi He & Desmond Manful & Rachel Warren & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Timothy J. Osborn & Jeff Price & Rhosanna Jenkins & Craig Wallace & Dai Yamazaki, 2022. "Quantification of impacts between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming on flooding risks in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy Osborn & Craig Wallace & Ian Harris & Thomas Melvin, 2016. "Pattern scaling using ClimGen: monthly-resolution future climate scenarios including changes in the variability of precipitation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 353-369, February.
    2. Claudia Tebaldi & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 349-361, February.
    3. Nir Y. Krakauer, 2014. "Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-14, March.
    4. Akemi Tanaka & Kiyoshi Takahashi & Hideo Shiogama & Naota Hanasaki & Yoshimitsu Masaki & Akihiko Ito & Hibiki Noda & Yasuaki Hijioka & Seita Emori, 2017. "On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 775-782, April.
    5. Yangyang Xu & Lei Lin, 2017. "Pattern scaling based projections for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration: sensitivity to composition of GHGs and aerosols forcing," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 635-647, February.
    6. Maria Chara Karypidou & Vasiliki Almpanidou & Adrian M. Tompkins & Antonios D. Mazaris & Sandra Gewehr & Spiros Mourelatos & Eleni Katragkou, 2020. "Projected shifts in the distribution of malaria vectors due to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2117-2133, December.
    7. H. Huebener & M. Sanderson & I. Höschel & J. Körper & T. Johns & J.-F. Royer & E. Roeckner & E. Manzini & J.-L. Dufresne & O. Otterå & J. Tjiputra & D. Salas y Melia & M. Giorgetta & S. Denvil & P. Fo, 2013. "Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 389-403, September.
    8. Vafadarnikjoo, Amin & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos & Botelho, Tiago & Bamford, David, 2023. "A stratified decision-making model for long-term planning: Application in flood risk management in Scotland," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Miranda J. Fix & Daniel Cooley & Stephan R. Sain & Claudia Tebaldi, 2018. "A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 335-347, February.
    10. Isaac Kwesi Nooni & Daniel Fiifi Tawia Hagan & Waheed Ullah & Jiao Lu & Shijie Li & Nana Agyemang Prempeh & Gnim Tchalim Gnitou & Kenny Thiam Choy Lim Kam Sian, 2022. "Projections of Drought Characteristics Based on the CNRM-CM6 Model over Africa," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, March.
    11. Andrew Jones & Katherine Calvin & William Collins & James Edmonds, 2015. "Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 131(4), pages 691-703, August.
    12. Joseph Daron & Ian Macadam & Hideki Kanamaru & Thelma Cinco & Jack Katzfey & Claire Scannell & Richard Jones & Marcelino Villafuerte & Faye Cruz & Gemma Narisma & Rafaela Jane Delfino & Rodel Lasco & , 2018. "Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 187-203, May.
    13. N. Arnell & S. Brown & S. Gosling & P. Gottschalk & J. Hinkel & C. Huntingford & B. Lloyd-Hughes & J. Lowe & R. Nicholls & T. Osborn & T. Osborne & G. Rose & P. Smith & T. Wheeler & P. Zelazowski, 2016. "The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 457-474, February.
    14. Wang, Zhaohua & Zhang, Hongzhi & Li, Hao & Wang, Bo & Cui, Qi & Zhang, Bin, 2022. "Economic impact and energy transformation of different effort-sharing schemes to pursue 2 ℃ warming limit in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 320(C).
    15. Ren, Jinfu & Liu, Yang & Liu, Jiming, 2023. "Chaotic behavior learning via information tracking," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 175(P1).
    16. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    17. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    18. Zhang, Xi & Geng, Yong & Shao, Shuai & Wilson, Jeffrey & Song, Xiaoqian & You, Wei, 2020. "China’s non-fossil energy development and its 2030 CO2 reduction targets: The role of urbanization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    19. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    20. Pascalle Smith & Georg Heinrich & Martin Suklitsch & Andreas Gobiet & Markus Stoffel & Jürg Fuhrer, 2014. "Station-scale bias correction and uncertainty analysis for the estimation of irrigation water requirements in the Swiss Rhone catchment under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 521-534, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:134:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-015-1509-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.