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Citations for "Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities"

by Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz

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  1. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Party Influence in Congress and the Economy," NBER Working Papers 12751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  3. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2006. "Partisan Impacts on the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections," NBER Working Papers 12073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2012. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," IZA Discussion Papers 6720, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
  6. Tongkui Yu & Shu-Heng Chen, 2011. "Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets," ASSRU Discussion Papers 1119, ASSRU - Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit.
  7. J. James Reade & Sachiko Akie, 2013. "Using Forecasting to Detect Corruption in International Football," Working Papers 2013-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  8. Justin Wolfers, 2006. "New uses for new macro derivatives," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug25.
  9. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2011. "How Prediction Markets Can Save Event Studies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8351, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Kelly, David L. & Letson, David & Nelson, Forrest & Nolan, David S. & Solís, Daniel, 2012. "Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 644-663.
  12. Sebastian Goers & Alexander Wagner & Jürgen Wegmayr, 2010. "New and old market-based instruments for climate change policy," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 12(1), pages 1-30, June.
  13. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice," IZA Discussion Papers 1991, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  14. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  15. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy," TSE Working Papers 13-394, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  16. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2011. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Discussion Papers 11-01, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  17. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
  18. Paolo Bizzozero & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2016. " The Importance of Suspense and Surprise in Entertainment Demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Working Papers 357, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  19. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5562, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. David S. Lee & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Bayesian Learning and the Pricing of New Information: Evidence from Prediction Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 330-336, May.
  21. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2016. "Far from the Madding Crowd: Collective Wisdom in Prediction Markets," LEM Papers Series 2016/14, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  22. Rothschild, David, 2015. "Combining forecasts for elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 952-964.
  23. Urmee Khan, 2016. "State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic," Working Papers 201609, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
  24. Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah, 2015. "Divided governments and futures prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 622-633.
  25. Jinli Hu, 2012. "Combinatorial Modelling and Learning with Prediction Markets," Papers 1201.3851, arXiv.org.
  26. Boulu-Reshef, Béatrice & Comeig, Irene & Donze, Robert & Weiss, Gregory D., 2016. "Risk aversion in prediction markets: A framed-field experiment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 5071-5075.
  27. Karl Schlag & James Tremewan & Joel van der Weele, 2014. "A Penny for Your Thoughts:A Survey of Methods for Eliciting Beliefs," Vienna Economics Papers 1401, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  28. Rajiv Sethi & Jennifer Wortman Vaughan, 2016. "Belief Aggregation with Automated Market Makers," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 155-178, June.
  29. Mikuláš Gangur & Miroslav Plevný, 2014. "Tools for Consumer Rights Protection in the Prediction of Electronic Virtual Market and Technological Changes," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(36), pages 578-578, May.
  30. Fabio Milani, 2010. "Public option and private profits," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 155-165, May.
  31. Joyce E. Berg & John Geweke & Thomas A. Rietz, 2010. "Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(1), pages 163-186, 07.
  32. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  33. Alina Beygelzimer & John Langford & David Pennock, 2012. "Learning Performance of Prediction Markets with Kelly Bettors," Papers 1201.6655, arXiv.org.
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