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Optimal expectations and the extreme information assumptions of `rational expectations' macromodels

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  1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:19:y:2013:i:3:p:259-271 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. J.L. Ford & Wee Ching Pok & S. Poshakwale, 2012. "The Return Predictability and Market Efficiency of the KLSE CI Stock Index Futures Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(1), pages 37-60, April.
  4. Silva Lopes, Artur, 1994. "A "hipótese das expectativas racionais": teoria e realidade (uma visita guiada à literatura até 1992) [The "rational expectations hypothesis": theory and reality (a guided tour ," MPRA Paper 9699, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2008.
  5. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
  6. Filippo Cesarano, 2013. "The Optimum Currency Area Puzzle," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 259-271, August.
  7. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
  8. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information: A Model of Monetary Nonneutrality and Structural Slumps," NBER Working Papers 8614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. McNulty, Mark S., 1985. "Information usage in the formation of price expectations: theory and econometric tests," ISU General Staff Papers 1985010108000013085, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  10. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2012. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 1-48.
  11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "Business Cycles Analysis and Expectational Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 1378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Cukierman, Alex, 1981. "How to Quantify Credibility and Its Effects - A Suggestion," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275331, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
  13. M. Ayhan Kose & Hideaki Matsuoka & Ugo Panizza & Dana Vorisek, 2019. "Inflation Expectations: Review and Evidence," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1904, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  14. Langley, Suchada Vichitakul, 1982. "The formation of price expectations: a case study of the soybean market," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800009358, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  15. Mankiw, N Gregory & Miron, Jeffrey A & Weil, David N, 1987. "The Adjustment of Expectations to a Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 358-374, June.
  16. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "Why Lucas is not a Hayekian," Serie Research Memoranda 0027, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  17. Douglas de Medeiros Franco, 2022. "Expectations, Economic Uncertainty, and Sentiment," RAC - Revista de Administração Contemporânea (Journal of Contemporary Administration), ANPAD - Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração, vol. 26(5), pages 210029-2100.
  18. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2005. "Inflation scares and forecast-based monetary policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 498-527, April.
  19. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121.
  20. T.P. Koirala Ph.D., 2013. "Time-varying Parameters of Inflation Model in Nepal: State Space Modeling," NRB Working Paper 16/2013, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department.
  21. Fuster, Andreas & Hebert, Benjamin Michael & Laibson, David I., 2012. "Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations," Scholarly Articles 10139283, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  22. Guo, Xu & McAleer, Michael & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2017. "A Bayesian approach to excess volatility, short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 346-358.
  23. Müller, Henrik & Schmidt, Tobias & Rieger, Jonas & Hufnagel, Lena Marie & Hornig, Nico, 2022. "A German inflation narrative. How the media frame price dynamics: Results from a RollingLDA analysis," DoCMA Working Papers 9, TU Dortmund University, Dortmund Center for Data-based Media Analysis (DoCMA).
  24. Ahmad Naimzada & Gian Italo Bischi, 2007. "Mann Iterations with Power Means," Working Papers 106, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 2007.
  25. Foroni, Ilaria & Gardini, Laura & Rosser, J.Barkley, 2003. "Adaptive and statistical expectations in a renewable resource market," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 63(6), pages 541-567.
  26. repec:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp162013 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Response of Short-Term Interest Rates to Weekly Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 1001, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1980. "Survey Evidence on The Rationality of Interest Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 0261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  30. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  31. David Demery & Nigel Duck & Simon Musgrave, 1984. "Unanticipated money growth, output and unemployment in West Germany, 1964—1981," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 120(2), pages 244-255, June.
  32. Cukierman, Alex, 1982. "Relative price variability, inflation and the allocative efficiency of the price system," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 131-162.
  33. Tegene, Abebayehu, 1983. "A rational expectations approach to the modelling of agricultural supply: a case study of Iowa," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009963, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  34. Reneéa Koekemoer, 2001. "Variable Parameter Estimation Of Consumer Price Expectations For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 69(1), pages 1-39, March.
  35. Smant, David J. C., 1998. "Modelling trends, expectations and the cyclical behaviour of prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-161, January.
  36. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  37. Charles Freedman, 1981. "Monetary Aggregates as Targets: Some Theoretical Aspects," NBER Working Papers 0775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Heidi Schelbert, 1979. "Stabilisierungspolitik in kleinen offenen Volkswirtschaften: das Beispiel Schweiz," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 115(III), pages 273-290, September.
  39. Huh, Chan G. & Lansing, Kevin J., 2000. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 51-86.
  40. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Do We Really Know That Financial Markets Are Efficient?," NBER Working Papers 0994, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Eric S. Fung & Kin Lam & Tak-Kuen Siu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2011. "A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, December.
  42. Eckalbar, John C., 1985. "Inventories in a dynamic macro model with flexible prices," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 201-219, March.
  43. Akio Matsumoto, 1993. "Dynamic complexity in a stochastic rationing model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 233-259, October.
  44. Moore, Kevin Clare, 1985. "Predictive econometric modeling of the United States farmland market: an empirical test of the rational expectations hypothesis," ISU General Staff Papers 198501010800008872, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  45. James Chan-Lee, 1980. "A review of recent work in the area of inflationary expectations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(1), pages 45-86, March.
  46. Guo, Xu & Lam, Kin & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2012. "A New Pseudo-Bayesian Model of Investors' Behavior in Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 42535, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  47. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 1983. "Financial Innovation and the Control of Monetary Aggregates: Some Evidence from Canada," NBER Working Papers 1157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Athanasios Orphanides & John Williams, 2004. "Imperfect Knowledge, Inflation Expectations, and Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. John R. O'Brien, 1990. "Ex post disclosure and the coordination of investors' adaptive expectations," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, September.
  50. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Post-Print halshs-01625188, HAL.
  51. Craig Ebert, 1994. "Defining price stability: what should we aim for?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 57, March.
  52. Gurumurthy, K. & Little, John D. C. & University of Texas at Dallas. Marketing Center., 2003. "A price response model developed from perceptual theories," Working papers 89-5, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  53. Makin, John H, 1982. "Anticipated Money, Inflation Uncertainty and Real Economic Activity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 126-134, February.
  54. Minford, Patrick & Srinivasan, Naveen, 2006. "Opportunistic monetary policy: An alternative rationalization," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 366-372.
  55. Yu, Ge, 2003. "Comparing Expectations and Outcomes: Application to UK Data," MPRA Paper 502, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  56. Rosen, Harvey S & Rosen, Kenneth T & Holtz-Eakin, Douglas, 1984. "Housing Tenure, Uncertainty, and Taxation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 405-416, August.
  57. J. L. Ford & Wee Ching Pok & S. Poshakwale, 2006. "The Predictability of KLSE CI Stock Index Futures Returns and The Conditional Multifactor APT Model," Discussion Papers 06-09, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  58. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2011. "Inflation expectations and the evolution of U. S. inflation," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  59. Du, Kai, 2019. "Investor expectations, earnings management, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 134-157.
  60. Roberts, Mark A., 1995. "Imperfect information: Some implications for modelling the exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 375-383, May.
  61. David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December.
  62. Lars Jonung & Eskil Wadensjö, 1987. "Rational, adaptive and learning behavior of voters: Evidence from disaggregated popularity functions for Sweden," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 197-210, August.
  63. Tomiyuki Kitamura & Masaki Tanaka, 2019. "Firms' Inflation Expectations under Rational Inattention and Sticky Information: An Analysis with a Small-Scale Macroeconomic Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-16, Bank of Japan.
  64. Reid Dorsey-Palmateer & Gary Smith, 2007. "Shrunken interest rate forecasts are better forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 425-430.
  65. Kuchiki, Akifumi & Ogawa, Kazuo, 1990. "Formation of Expectations and Learning in the Market," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO), vol. 28(1), pages 42-66, March.
  66. Avner Bar-Ilan & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Consumer Durables and the Optimality of Usually Doing Nothing," NBER Working Papers 2488, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  67. John B. Taylor, 1983. "Rational Expectations Models in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  68. Priestley, Richard, 1996. "The arbitrage pricing theory, macroeconomic and financial factors, and expectations generating processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 869-890, June.
  69. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2012. "Real expectations: replacing rational expectations with survey expectations in dynamic macro models," Working Papers 12-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  70. Lahti, Ari & Virén, Matti, 1988. "Rational expectations in a macromodel : Some comparative analyses with Finnish data," Research Discussion Papers 5/1988, Bank of Finland.
  71. Tsai, Grace Yueh-Hsiang, 1989. "A dynamic model of the U.S. cotton market with rational expectations," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000012168, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  72. T.P.Koirala Ph.D., 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters of Inflation Model in Nepal: State Space Modeling," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 66-77, October.
  73. Holmes, James M. & Manning, Richard, 1988. "Memory and market stability : The case of the cobweb," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-7.
  74. V. Vance Roley & Simon M. Wheatley, 1990. "Temporal Variation in the Interest-Rate Response to Money Announcements," NBER Working Papers 3471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  75. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01625188, HAL.
  76. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2017. "Stagflation and the crossroad in macroeconomics: the struggle between structural and New Classical macroeconometrics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  77. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200340 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1983. "Recent Perspectives in and on Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 1208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Ignazio Visco & Giordano Zevi, 2020. "Bounded rationality and expectations in economics," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 575, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  80. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
  81. Lam, Kin & Liu, Taisheng & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2010. "A pseudo-Bayesian model in financial decision making with implications to market volatility, under- and overreaction," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 166-175, May.
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