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A global decline in research productivity? Evidence from China and Germany

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  • Böing, Philipp
  • Hünermund, Paul

Abstract

In a recent paper, Bloom et al. (2020) find evidence for a substantial decline in research productivity in the U.S. economy during the last 40 years. In this paper, we replicate their findings for China and Germany, using detailed firm-level data spanning three decades. Our results indicate that diminishing returns in idea production are a global phenomenon, not just confined to the U.S.

Suggested Citation

  • Böing, Philipp & Hünermund, Paul, 2020. "A global decline in research productivity? Evidence from China and Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-030, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:20030
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    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2016. "The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10544.
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    7. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    8. Bettina Peters & Christian Rammer, 2013. "Innovation panel surveys in Germany," Chapters, in: Fred Gault (ed.), Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement, chapter 6, pages 135-177, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Stephan, Paula E., 2010. "The Economics of Science," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 217-273, Elsevier.
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    12. Boeing, Philipp & Mueller, Elisabeth, 2016. "Measuring patent quality in cross-country comparison," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 145-147.
    13. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Bornmann & Russell J. Funk, 2025. "Popper’s probability calculus and the decline of scientific disruptiveness," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(8), pages 4801-4807, August.
    2. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2022. "The Ossified Economy: The Case of Germany, 1870-2020," IZA Discussion Papers 15607, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Macher, Jeffrey T. & Rutzer, Christian & Weder, Rolf, 2024. "Is there a secular decline in disruptive patents? Correcting for measurement bias," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    4. Li, Qing & Hu, Dezhuang & Li, Tang, 2022. "The innovation of family firms in China: New evidence from the China employer-employee survey," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Thomas H. W. Ziesemer, 2024. "Mission-oriented R&D and growth of Japan 1988–2016: a comparison with private and public R&D," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 218-247, February.
    6. Cauwels, Peter & Sornette, Didier, 2022. "Are ‘flow of ideas’ and ‘research productivity’ in secular decline?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    7. Boxu Yang & Xielin Liu & Yuchen Gao & Langmei Zhu, 2023. "A research on the effectiveness of innovation policy for regional innovation under Chinese long-range plan," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 491-508.
    8. Minniti, Maria & Naudé, Wim & Stam, Erik, 2023. "Is Productive Entrepreneurship Getting Scarcer? A Reflection on the Contemporary Relevance of Baumol's Typology," IZA Discussion Papers 16408, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Sanderson, Conrad & Karimi, Sarvnaz & Bratanova, Alexandra & Naughtin, Claire, 2023. "Artificial intelligence adoption in the physical sciences, natural sciences, life sciences, social sciences and the arts and humanities: A bibliometric analysis of research publications from 1960-2021," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Henri Loubergé, 2021. "Tribute to Orio," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 46(2), pages 293-300, April.
    11. Rojko, Katarina & Lužar, Borut, 2022. "Scientific performance across research disciplines: Trends and differences in the case of Slovenia," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    12. Boeing, Philipp, 2020. "Innovative China: R&D subsidies, patent measures, and productivity," ZEW Expert Briefs 20-15, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo & Ida Mele, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 on research output by gender across countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(12), pages 6811-6826, December.
    14. Czarnitzki Dirk & Confraria Hugo, 2025. "R&D productivity: are ideas harder to find or does Europe suffer from a commercialization gap?," JRC Research Reports JRC141091, Joint Research Centre.
    15. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2022. "Mission-oriented R&D and growth of Japan 1988-2016," MERIT Working Papers 2022-034, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    16. Wang, Jieshu & Lobo, José, 2024. "Extensive growth of inventions: Evidence from U.S. patenting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    17. Ho, Jerry & Hoang, Vincent & Wilson, Clevo, 2020. "Government R&D Subsidies and International Competitiveness of Labor-managed Firms," MPRA Paper 106896, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Dec 2020.
    18. Guido Pialli, 2023. "The effects of limited exhaustibility of knowledge and geographical distance on the quality of R&D collaborations: The European evidence 2000–2012," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 1125-1169, September.
    19. Hajkowicz, Stefan & Naughtin, Claire & Sanderson, Conrad & Schleiger, Emma & Karimi, Sarvnaz & Bratanova, Alexandra & Bednarz, Tomasz, 2022. "Artificial intelligence for science – adoption trends and future development pathways," MPRA Paper 115464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Egeland, Jonathan, 2022. "The ups and downs of intelligence: The co-occurrence model and its associated research program," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    21. Boeing, Philipp & Eberle, Jonathan & Howell, Anthony, 2022. "The impact of China's R&D subsidies on R&D investment, technological upgrading and economic growth," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    22. Wim Naudé, 2022. "From the entrepreneurial to the ossified economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131.
    23. Wu, Yifan & Yuan, Yiming & Song, Xueyin, 2025. "The impact of AI adoption on R&D productivity: Evidence from Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing industry," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    24. Naudé, Wim & Nagler, Paula, 2021. "The Rise and Fall of German Innovation," IZA Discussion Papers 14154, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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