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Government debt, inflation dynamics and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks

  • Mayer, Eric
  • Rüth, Sebastian
  • Scharler, Johann

We analyze the influence of the fiscal position on the transmission of government spending shocks in a New Keynesian model. We find that once we allow for positive levels of government debt in the steady state, the sign and the size of the fiscal multiplier depend strongly on the horizon at which the multiplier is evaluated. While the long-run effect of a fiscal policy innovation is typically of a similar order of magnitude as in Gali et al. (2007), short-run multipliers differ substantially. The reason for this non-monotonic behavior is the interaction between the dynamics of the inflation rate and the debt level in real terms, which is absent in standard models in which government debt is restricted to be equal to zero in the steady state.

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Paper provided by University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics in its series W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers with number 87.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:87
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  1. Yuan, Mingwei & Li, Wenli, 2000. "Dynamic employment and hours effects of government spending shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1233-1263, July.
  2. Antonio Fatás & Ilian Mihov, 2010. "The Euro and Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 287-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2009. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt," NBER Working Papers 15562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
  8. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  9. Jordi Gali & David López-Salido & Javier Valles, 2004. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," International Finance Discussion Papers 805, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  11. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Leith, Campbell & von Thadden, Leopold, 2006. "Monetary and fiscal policy interactions in a New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and non-Ricardian consumers," Working Paper Series 0649, European Central Bank.
  13. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Monetary-fiscal policy interactions and fiscal stimulus," Research Working Paper RWP 09-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  14. Luca Sessa & Libero Monteforte & Lorenzo Forni, 2007. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: estimates for the euro area," 2007 Meeting Papers 352, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Eric M. Leeper & Michael Plante & Nora Traum, 2009. "Dynamics Of Fiscal Financing In The United States," Caepr Working Papers 2009-012, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  16. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
  17. Ethan Ilzetzki & Enrique G. Mendoza & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1016, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  18. Krause, Michael U. & Moyen, Stéphane, 2013. "Public debt and changing inflation targets," Discussion Papers 06/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  19. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
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  21. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
  22. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2007. "Optimal simple and implementable monetary and fiscal rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1702-1725, September.
  23. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Andre Meier & Gernot J. Mueller, 2010. "Debt Consolidation and Fiscal Stabilization of Deep Recessions," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/03, European University Institute.
  24. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Gernot Müller & Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier, 2009. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," IMF Working Papers 09/106, International Monetary Fund.
  26. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 483-499.
  28. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
  29. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy In Good Times And Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436, November.
  30. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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