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Government debt, inflation dynamics and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks

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  • Mayer, Eric
  • Rüth, Sebastian
  • Scharler, Johann

Abstract

We analyze the influence of the fiscal position on the transmission of government spending shocks in a New Keynesian model. We find that once we allow for positive levels of government debt in the steady state, the sign and the size of the fiscal multiplier depend strongly on the horizon at which the multiplier is evaluated. While the long-run effect of a fiscal policy innovation is typically of a similar order of magnitude as in Gali et al. (2007), short-run multipliers differ substantially. The reason for this non-monotonic behavior is the interaction between the dynamics of the inflation rate and the debt level in real terms, which is absent in standard models in which government debt is restricted to be equal to zero in the steady state.

Suggested Citation

  • Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian & Scharler, Johann, 2012. "Government debt, inflation dynamics and the transmission of fiscal policy shocks," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 87, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wuewep:87
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; New Keynesian model; government debt; inflation;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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