IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1862.html

A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks

Author

Listed:
  • Eboli, Mario

Abstract

This paper puts forward a novel approach to the analysis of direct contagion in financial networks. Financial systems are here represented as flow networks -i.e., directed and weighted graphs endowed with source nodes and sink nodes - and the propagation of losses and defaults, originated by an exogenous shock, is here represented as a flow that crosses such a network. In establishing existence and uniqueness of such a flow function, we address a know problem of indeterminacy that arise, in financial networks, from the intercyclicity of payments. Sufficient and necessary conditions for uniqueness are pinned down. We embed this result in an algorithm that, while computing the propagation caused by a shock, controls for the emergence of possible indeterminacies. We then apply some properties of network flows to investigate the relation between the structures of a financial network-i.e. the size and the pattern of obligations - and its exposure to default contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Eboli, Mario, 2013. "A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks," Kiel Working Papers 1862, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1862
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/78710/1/756798876.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hajime Inaoka & Takuto Ninomiya & Ken Taniguchi & Tokiko Shimizu & Hideki Takayasu, 2004. "Fractal Network derived from banking transaction -- An analysis of network structures formed by financial institutions --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 04-E-4, Bank of Japan.
    2. Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gale, Douglas & Kariv, Shachar, 2003. "Bayesian learning in social networks," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-346, November.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    5. Gofman, Michael, 2017. "Efficiency and stability of a financial architecture with too-interconnected-to-fail institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 113-146.
    6. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    7. Cabrales, Antonio; Gale, Douglas; Gottardi, Piero, 2015. "Financial Contagion in Networks," Economics Working Papers ECO2015/01, European University Institute.
    8. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    9. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    10. Hojman, Daniel A. & Szeidl, Adam, 2008. "Core and periphery in networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 295-309, March.
    11. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    12. Fabio Castiglionesi & Fabio Feriozzi & Gyöngyi Lóránth & Loriana Pelizzon, 2014. "Liquidity Coinsurance and Bank Capital," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 409-443, March.
    13. Antonio Cabrales & Piero Gottardi & Fernando Vega-Redondo, 2017. "Risk Sharing and Contagion in Networks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3086-3127.
    14. Bech, Morten L. & Atalay, Enghin, 2010. "The topology of the federal funds market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(22), pages 5223-5246.
    15. Yeon‐Koo Che & Jinwoo Kim & Konrad Mierendorff, 2013. "Generalized Reduced‐Form Auctions: A Network‐Flow Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(6), pages 2487-2520, November.
    16. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
    17. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
    18. Langfield, Sam & Liu, Zijun & Ota, Tomohiro, 2014. "Mapping the UK interbank system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 288-303.
    19. Venkatesh Bala & Sanjeev Goyal, 2000. "A Noncooperative Model of Network Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1181-1230, September.
    20. Rodrigo Cifuentes & Hyun Song Shin & Gianluigi Ferrucci, 2005. "Liquidity Risk and Contagion," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 556-566, 04/05.
    21. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    22. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Tirole, Jean, 1996. "Interbank Lending and Systemic Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 733-762, November.
    23. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    24. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
    25. Sandro Brusco & Fabio Castiglionesi, 2007. "Liquidity Coinsurance, Moral Hazard, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2275-2302, October.
    26. Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar & Martin Summer, 2006. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1301-1314, September.
    27. Jackson, Matthew O. & Wolinsky, Asher, 1996. "A Strategic Model of Social and Economic Networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 44-74, October.
    28. Craig, Ben & von Peter, Goetz, 2014. "Interbank tiering and money center banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 322-347.
    29. Fabio Castiglionesi & Mario Eboli, 2018. "Liquidity Flows in Interbank Networks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(4), pages 1291-1334.
    30. Eboli, Mario, 2019. "A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-233.
    31. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    32. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2002. "Balance-Sheet Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 46-50, May.
    33. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    34. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1245-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Lana Embree & Tom Roberts, 2009. "Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System," Discussion Papers 09-13, Bank of Canada.
    37. Dow, James, 2000. "What Is Systemic Risk? Moral Hazard, Initial Shocks, and Propagation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 18(2), pages 1-24, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xin Liu, 2025. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Unraveling Systemic Risk Transmission: An Empirical Exploration of Network Dynamics and Market Liquidity in the Financial Sector," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 6629-6664, June.
    2. Tinic, Murat & Sensoy, Ahmet & Demir, Muge & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Broker Network Connectivity and the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 104719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Caiazzo, Emmanuel & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2025. "Bank diversity and financial contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Selman Erol & Rakesh Vohra, 2014. "Network Formation and Systemic Risk, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 15-001, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 19 Dec 2014.
    5. Bulent Ozel & Mario Eboli & Andrea Toto & Andrea Teglio, 2018. "Robust-yet-fragile: A simulation model on exposure and concentration at interbank networks," Working Papers 2018/15, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    6. Chen, Yehning, 2022. "Bank interconnectedness and financial stability: The role of bank capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Eboli, Mario, 2025. "Systemic risk in centralised interbank networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Jiang, Yile, 2022. "Concentrated commonalities and systemic risk in China's banking system: A contagion network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Lei, Jingyue & Shen, Peilong & Li, Zhinan, 2025. "Multilayer bank-firm networks and financial risk contagion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 675(C).
    10. Maria Rosa Borges & Lauriano Ulica & Mariya Gubareva, 2020. "Systemic risk in the Angolan interbank payment system – a network approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(45), pages 4900-4912, September.
    11. Côme Billard, 2020. "Technology Contagion in Networks," Working Papers 2020.01, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    12. Selman Erol & Rakesh Vohra, 2014. "Network Formation and Systemic Risk," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-029, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    13. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    14. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Fang, Lei & Cheng, Jiang & Su, Fang, 2019. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk: A comparative study based on systemically important regions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 147-158.
    16. Isaac M. Sonin & Konstantin Sonin, 2020. "A Continuous-Time Model of Financial Clearing," Working Papers 2020-101, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    17. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.
    18. Erol, Selman & Vohra, Rakesh, 2022. "Network formation and systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    19. Eboli, Mario, 2019. "A flow network analysis of direct balance-sheet contagion in financial networks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 205-233.
    20. Lv, Jiamin & Ben, Shenglin & Huang, Wenli & Xu, Yueling, 2023. "How to reduce the default contagion risk of intercorporate credit guarantee networks? Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    21. Deborah Noguera & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2023. "Minskyan model with credit rationing in a network economy," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-26, March.
    22. Mario Eboli & Bulent Ozel & Andrea Teglio & Andrea Toto, 2023. "Connectivity, centralisation and ‘robustness-yet-fragility’ of interbank networks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 169-200, June.
    23. Li, Wenwei & Hommel, Ulrich & Paterlini, Sandra, 2018. "Network topology and systemic risk: Evidence from the Euro Stoxx market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 105-112.
    24. Deborah Noguera & Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2022. "Credit-constrained fluctuations and uncertainty in a network economy," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(80), pages 5-52, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Paul Glasserman & H. Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Working Papers 15-21, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    3. Maryam Farboodi, 2014. "Intermediation and Voluntary Exposure to Counterparty Risk," 2014 Meeting Papers 365, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    5. Caiazzo, Emmanuel & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2025. "Bank diversity and financial contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Sabrina Aufiero & Silvia Bartolucci & Fabio Caccioli & Pierpaolo Vivo, 2025. "Mapping Microscopic and Systemic Risks in TradFi and DeFi: a literature review," Papers 2508.12007, arXiv.org.
    7. Jiajia, Liu & Kun, Guo & Fangcheng, Tang & Yahan, Wang & Shouyang, Wang, 2023. "The effect of the disposal of non-performing loans on interbank liquidity risk in China: A cash flow network-based analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 105-119.
    8. Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2016. "Too interconnected to fail: A survey of the Interbank Networks literature," SAFE Working Paper Series 91, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    9. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    10. Elliott, Matthew & Georg, Co-Pierre & Hazell, Jonathon, 2021. "Systemic risk shifting in financial networks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    11. Jin-Wook Chang, 2019. "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    13. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    14. Sadamori Kojaku & Giulio Cimini & Guido Caldarelli & Naoki Masuda, 2018. "Structural changes in the interbank market across the financial crisis from multiple core-periphery analysis," Papers 1802.05139, arXiv.org.
    15. Celso Brunetti & Jeffrey H. Harris & Shawn Mankad, 2021. "Liquidity Networks, Interconnectedness, and Interbank Information Asymmetry," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Chabot, Miia & Bertrand, Jean-Louis, 2021. "Complexity, interconnectedness and stability: New perspectives applied to the European banking system," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 784-800.
    17. Nan Chen & Xin Liu & David D. Yao, 2016. "An Optimization View of Financial Systemic Risk Modeling: Network Effect and Market Liquidity Effect," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(5), pages 1089-1108, October.
    18. Peterson K. Ozili, 2017. "Earnings management in interconnected networks: a perspective," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 150-163, November.
    19. Navarro, Noemí & Tran, Dan H., 2018. "Shock Diffusion in Regular Networks: The Role of Transitive Cycles," MPRA Paper 86267, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2023. "Networks, interconnectedness, and interbank information asymmetry," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1862. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.