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Demand for dollars: Evidence from survey expectations

Author

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  • Ballensiefen, Benedikt
  • Somogyi, Fabricius
  • Winterberg, Hannah

Abstract

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase their dollar holdings when expecting US dollar appreciation or improved US macroeconomic fundamentals, whereas synthetic dollar funding is driven by forecasted CIP deviations. Second, cross-sectionally, investors rebalance along the factor structure of currency risk into dollars following an expected dollar appreciation. Third, responses to professional forecasts weaken when uncertainty or forecaster disagreement rises, and are lower for forecasters with poorer past accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that long-horizon expectations accurately predict dollar demand across spot, swap, and forward currency markets. We rationalize those finding in a theoretical model of currency demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Ballensiefen, Benedikt & Somogyi, Fabricius & Winterberg, Hannah, 2026. "Demand for dollars: Evidence from survey expectations," CFR Working Papers 26-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:337468
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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