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On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks

Author

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  • Brahmbhatt, Milan
  • Dutta, Arindam

Abstract

Infectious disease outbreaks can exact a high human and economic cost through illness and death. But, as with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in East Asia in 2003, or the plague outbreak in Surat, India, in 1994, they can also create severe economic disruptions even when there is, ultimately, relatively little illness or death. Such disruptions are commonly the result of uncoordinated and panicky efforts by individuals to avoid becoming infected, of preventive activity. This paper places these"SARS type"effects in the context of research on economic epidemiology, in which behavioral responses to disease risk have both economic and epidemiological consequences. The paper looks in particular at how people form subjective probability judgments about disease risk. Public opinion surveys during the SARS outbreak provide suggestive evidence that people did indeed at times hold excessively high perceptions of the risk of becoming infected, or, if infected, of dying from the disease. The paper discusses research in behavioral economics and the theory of information cascades that may shed light on the origin of such biases. The authors consider whether public information strategies can help reduce unwarranted panic. A preliminary question is why governments often seem to have strong incentives to conceal information about infectious disease outbreaks. The paper reviews recent game-theoretic analysis that clarifies government incentives. An important finding is that government incentives to conceal decline the more numerous are non-official sources of information about a possible disease outbreak. The findings suggest that honesty may indeed be the best public policy under modern conditions of easy mass global communications.

Suggested Citation

  • Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4466
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kelley Lee, 2014. "Health Policy in Asia and the Pacific: Navigating Local Needs and Global Challenges," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 45-57, January.
    2. Victoria Y. Fan & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk," NBER Working Papers 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Busby, J.S. & Onggo, B.S.S. & Liu, Y., 2016. "Agent-based computational modelling of social risk responses," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 1029-1042.
    4. repec:hrv:hksfac:35014363 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Monitoring&Evaluation; Disease Control&Prevention; Population Policies; Hazard Risk Management; Gender and Health;

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