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Measuring the Economic Risk of Covid-19

Author

Listed:
  • Ilan Noy
  • Nguyen Doan
  • Benno Ferrarini
  • Donghyun Park

Abstract

We measure the economic risk of Covid-19 at a geo-spatially detailed resolution. In addition to data about the current prevalence of confirmed cases, we use data from 2014-2018 and a conceptual disaster risk model to compute measures for exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of the local economy to the shock of the epidemic. Using a battery of proxies for these four concepts, we calculate the hazard, the principal components of exposure and vulnerability to it, and of the economy’s resilience (i.e., its ability of the recover rapidly from the shock). We find that the economic risk of this pandemic is particularly high in most of Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. These results are consistent when comparing an ad-hoc equal weighting algorithm for the four components of the index, an algorithm that assumes equal hazard for all countries, and one based on estimated weights using previous aggregated Disability-Adjusted Life Years losses associated with communicable diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2020. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Covid-19," CESifo Working Paper Series 8373, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8373
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    2. Goodell, John W., 2020. "COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    3. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2019. "Measuring the Economic Risk of Epidemics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8016, CESifo.
    4. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    5. Ilan Noy & Rio Yonson, 2018. "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards: A Survey of Concepts and Measurements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Hallegatte,Stephane & Bangalore,Mook & Vogt-Schilb,Adrien Camille, 2016. "Assessing socioeconomic resilience to floods in 90 countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7663, The World Bank.
    7. Fynnwin Prager & Dan Wei & Adam Rose, 2017. "Total Economic Consequences of an Influenza Outbreak in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(1), pages 4-19, January.
    8. Daniel Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock, 2020. "U.S. Economic Activity During the Early Weeks of the SARS-Cov-2 Outbreak," NBER Working Papers 26954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Victoria Y. Fan & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk," NBER Working Papers 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2020. "COVID-19 and The Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters," NBER Working Papers 26987, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Daniel J. Lewis & Karel Mertens & James H. Stock & Mihir Trivedi, 2022. "Measuring real activity using a weekly economic index," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(4), pages 667-687, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fisayo Fagbemi & Tolulope T. Osinubi & Olufemi S. Olatunde, 2022. "COVID-19 and Unemployment: Showcasing Sub-Saharan African Experience," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 11(1), pages 24-33, June.
    2. Vu Nguyen Doan & Ilan Noy, 2021. "A Comprehensive Measure of Lifeyears Lost due to COVID‐19 in 2020: A Comparison across Countries and with Past Disasters," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(4), pages 553-561, September.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Zhengyang Jiang & Robert J. Richmond & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2020. "Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Nana Liu & Zeshui Xu & Marinko Skare, 2021. "The research on COVID-19 and economy from 2019 to 2020: analysis from the perspective of bibliometrics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 217-268, June.
    5. Sándor Kovács & Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Domicián Máté, 2021. "Global Food Security, Economic and Health Risk Assessment of the COVID-19 Epidemic," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-16, September.
    6. KATO-VIDAL Enrique L., 2022. "Industrial Variety, Firms And Resilience," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 17(2), pages 141-159, August.
    7. Wang, Xueli & Wang, Lei & Zhang, Xuerong & Fan, Fei, 2022. "The spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in China and its impact on urban economic resilience," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. Per G. Fredriksson & Aatishya Mohanty, 2022. "COVID-19 Regulations, Political Institutions, and the Environment," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 81(2), pages 323-353, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    epidemic; Covid-19; risk measurement; economic impact;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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