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L’effet des arrêts maladie sur les trajectoires professionnelles

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  • Thomas Barnay
  • Julie Favrot
  • Catherine Pollak

Abstract

A la fin des années 2000, les taux d’emploi des personnes ayant des incapacités en France étaient de 46% contre 72% pour les personnes sans incapacités. Si l’on sait évaluer le coût de l’indemnisation de l’incapacité temporaire de travail pour maladie pour l’Assurance maladie (6,7 milliards d’euros soit 3,7 % des dépenses de santé en 2012), on ignore encore largement les effets de ces arrêts de travail sur les parcours professionnels. Cette étude analyse l’effet des arrêts maladie - qui constituent une mesure objectivée de l’incapacité temporaire de travail – sur la dynamique des trajectoires professionnelles. Elle mobilise des données administratives de carrière et de dépenses de santé des salariés affiliés au Régime général (panel Hygie 2005-2008). Une typologie est mise en œuvre pour caractériser les transitions entre cinq états (emploi sans arrêt, emploi avec peu d’arrêts, emploi avec arrêts longs, chômage et inactivité). Le recours à un modèle multinomial dynamique à effets fixes permet d’estimer l’effet des épisodes d’arrêt maladie sur le chômage et l’inactivité d’une année à l’autre en distinguant la dépendance d’état de l’hétérogénéité inobservée. Nous observons des trajectoires plus durablement dégradées (vers le chômage et l’inactivité notamment) pour les personnes ayant des arrêts de travail, en particulier lorsque ceux-ci sont dus à des longs épisodes de maladie. Cet effet est comparable pour les hommes et les femmes ; le risque plus élevé d’inactivité après des arrêts longs chez les femmes s’expliquant principalement par l’hétérogénéité inobservée. Si les arrêts courts peuvent a priori s’interpréter comme un marqueur de sécurité de l’emploi, une fois l’hétérogénéité inobservée prise en compte ils constituent également un facteur de risque pour les salariés dès lors que leur durée cumulée dépasse 30 jours. Les salariés semblent d’ailleurs intégrer ces risques de pénalités en limitant leur recours aux arrêts à la suite d’épisodes de chômage ou d’inactivité.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Barnay & Julie Favrot & Catherine Pollak, 2014. "L’effet des arrêts maladie sur les trajectoires professionnelles," Working Papers of BETA 2014-23, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2014-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Barnay & Thomas Coutrot & Thibaut De Saint Pol, 2016. "Introduction générale - Santé et itinéraire professionnel : contexte et genèse d’une enquête," Post-Print hal-01343227, HAL.
    2. Thomas Barnay & Thomas Coutrot & Thibaut de Saint Pol, 2016. "Introduction. Santé et itinéraire professionnel : contexte et genèse d’une enquête," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 486(1), pages 5-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arrêts maladie; trajectoires professionnelles; genre; modèle de transition.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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