The Relationship between Population Growth and Standard-of-Living Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel Granger Causality Test
This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way Granger causality running from population growth to standard-of-living growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from standard-of-living growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, two-way causality for Austria and Italy, and no causal relationship for Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA, and Uruguay. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yields different results over the two periods of 1871-1951 and 1952-2013. Our empirical results suggest important policy implications for these 21 countries as the directions of causality differ across countries and time period.
|Date of creation:||Sep 2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: University of Connecticut 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063|
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wanjun Yao & Tomoko Kinugasa & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4651-4661, November.
- Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
- Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2012.
"Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels,"
Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1450-1460.
- Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers halshs-00224434, HAL.
- Elena Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Post-Print hal-01385899, HAL.
- T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
- Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., "undated". "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP 412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, 03.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Ullah, A. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hashem Pesaran, M. & Yamagata, Takashi, 2008. "Testing slope homogeneity in large panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 50-93, January.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata. T., 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0513, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," IEPR Working Papers 05.14, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1438, CESifo Group Munich.
- A.F. Darrat & Y.K. Al-Yousif, 1999. "On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 301-313, Summer.
- Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
- Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1995. "The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1157, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oded Galor & David Weil, 1995. "The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth," Working Papers 1993-12, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Tai-Hsin Huang & Zixiong Xie, 2013. "Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3820-3826, September.
- Kuznets, Simon, 1976. " Demographic Aspects of the Size Distribution of Income: An Exploratory Essay," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 1-94, October.
- Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
- Partha Dasgupta, 2000. "Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(4), pages 643-689.
- John Thornton, 2001. "Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 464-468, October.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Time-varying linkages between tourism receipts and economic growth in South Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(36), pages 4381-4398, December.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Renee van Eyden & Roula Inglesi-Lotz & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Time-Varying Linkages between Tourism Receipts and Economic Growth in South Africa," Working Papers 201363, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
- Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1999. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," Working Papers 99-35, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Jean Drèze & Mamta Murthi, 2001. "Fertility, Education, and Development: Evidence from India," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 33-63.
- Cassen, Robert H., 1976. "Population and development: A survey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(10-11), pages 785-830.
- Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
- Julian L. Simon, 1987. "Population Growth, Economic Growth, and Foreign Aid," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 159-193, Spring/Su.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2016-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark McConnel)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.