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The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test

Author

Listed:
  • Tsangyao Chang

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Hsiao-Ping Chu

    (Ling Tung University)

  • Frederick W. Deale

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada)

Abstract

This paper examines the linkages between population growth and standard-of-living growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870–2013. We apply the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (Econ Model 23:978–992, 2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries. We find one-way Granger causality running from population growth to standard-of-living growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from standard-of-living growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, two-way causality for Austria and Italy, and no causal relationship for Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA, and Uruguay. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yields different results over the two periods of 1871–1951 and 1952–2013. Our empirical results suggest important policy implications for these 21 countries as the directions of causality differ across countries and time period.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "The relationship between population growth and standard-of-living growth over 1870–2013: evidence from a bootstrapped panel Granger causality test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 175-201, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9315-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s10663-016-9315-9
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2019. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2019-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Khalid Khan & Chi-Wei Su & Ran Tao & Lin-Na Hao, 2020. "Urbanization and carbon emission: causality evidence from the new industrialized economies," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7193-7213, December.
    4. Alvarez-Dias, Marcos & D'Hombres, Beatrice & Ghisetti, Claudia & Pontarollo, Nicola & Dijkstra, Lewis, 2018. "The Determinants of Population Growth: Literature review and empirical analysis," Working Papers 2018-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population growth; Economic growth; Dependency and heterogeneity; Bootstrap panel causality test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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